Skip to content
← ScoresTimes: UK time

Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 6

Wolves v Portsmouth

WolvesJ. James 62′
1–1FT · HT 0–0
PortsmouthT. Devlin 86′
Where to watch

· Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Edward Duckworth
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
  • Referee: Edward Duckworth
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 23.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.174 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.90 – 1.16⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.01 – 0.65⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.7%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 8.5%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 6.2%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Early pre-match ·
  6. v6Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v6 computed 20 Oct, 19:20 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 19 Oct on 1,643 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 22′Yellow card · WolvesS. Neave
  3. 46′Substitution · WolvesJ. James on · M. Munetsi off
  4. 46′Substitution · WolvesT. Chirewa on · S. Neave off
  5. 53′Substitution · PortsmouthR. Kavuma-McQueen on · R. Robert Shein off
  6. 53′Substitution · PortsmouthM. Milovanović on · T. Shade off
  7. 55′Yellow card · PortsmouthI. Mohamed
  8. 62′Goal · WolvesJ. James · (assist F. López)
  9. 67′Substitution · WolvesT. Doyle on · M. Mané off
  10. 75′Substitution · WolvesJ. Bellegarde on · R. Saïd off
  11. 75′Substitution · PortsmouthO. Bailey on · I. Mohamed off
  12. 75′Substitution · PortsmouthE. Kenny on · A. Kamara off
  13. 80′Yellow card · PortsmouthM. Milovanović
  14. 83′Yellow card · WolvesJ. Bellegarde
  15. 84′Yellow card · WolvesT. Doyle
  16. 86′Goal · PortsmouthT. Devlin
  17. 89′Substitution · WolvesY. Mosquera on · André off
  18. 90+5′Yellow card · PortsmouthR. Kavuma-McQueen
  19. 90+6′Substitution · PortsmouthM. Pack on · A. Segečić off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 7Blocked shots2
  • 6Corners2
  • 1.01Expected goals (xG)0.65
  • 11Fouls6
  • 4Offsides4
  • 87%Pass accuracy78%
  • 485Passes352
  • 422Accurate passes273
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 0Saves1
  • 15Shots8
  • 6Shots off target5
  • 2Shots on target1
  • 3Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Wolves
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
F. López906.301130
H. Bueno906.300001
J. Tchatchoua906.500003
J. Sá906.300000
L. Krejčí906.900101
N. Djiga907.000002
André897.300115
R. Saïd756.200110
M. Mané676.200131
J. James457.610101
M. Munetsi456.300011
S. Neave456.000001
T. Chirewa456.900201
T. Doyle236.700101
J. Bellegarde156.300000
Y. Mosquera86.300000
Portsmouth
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Adams906.900209
J. Meghoma907.200006
M. Dia907.300210
N. Schmid906.200000
R. Poole907.500001
T. Devlin908.310103
A. Segečić897.200131
A. Kamara756.300001
I. Mohamed756.600002
R. Robert Shein536.200101
T. Shade536.300001
M. Milovanović376.200002
R. Kavuma-McQueen376.900002
E. Kenny156.700000
O. Bailey156.700100
M. Pack1–00000

xG (Highlightly) available

Wolves
PlayerxGxAxGOT
F. López0.350.17–
T. Chirewa0.260.010.25
André0.100.02–
J. James0.090.070.08
M. Mané0.090.02–
R. Saïd0.060.08–
T. Doyle0.040.02–
L. Krejčí0.010.03–
H. Bueno–0.01–
J. Tchatchoua–0.01–
J. Sá–0.00–
M. Munetsi–0.01–
N. Djiga–0.01–
S. Neave–0.00–
Y. Mosquera–0.00–
Portsmouth
PlayerxGxAxGOT
E. Adams0.310.00–
M. Dia0.110.11–
R. Robert Shein0.080.00–
T. Devlin0.060.000.57
A. Segečić0.050.40–
O. Bailey0.040.00–
A. Kamara–0.01–
E. Kenny–0.00–
I. Mohamed–0.01–
J. Meghoma–0.01–
M. Milovanović–0.00–
N. Schmid–0.01–
R. Poole–0.00–
R. Kavuma-McQueen–0.00–
T. Shade–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Portsmouth4-2-3-1

  1. 1N. Schmid6.2
  1. 24T. Devlin8.3
  2. 5R. Poole (c)7.5
  3. 55M. Dia7.3
  4. 16J. Meghoma7.2
  1. 38E. Adams6.9
  2. 37I. Mohamed6.6
  1. 11A. Kamara6.3
  2. 19R. Robert Shein6.2
  3. 10A. Segečić7.2
  1. 17T. Shade6.3
  1. 14S. Neave6.0
  1. 19R. Saïd6.2
  2. 28F. López6.3
  3. 36M. Mané6.2
  1. 5M. Munetsi6.3
  2. 7André (c)7.3
  1. 3H. Bueno6.3
  2. 37L. Krejčí6.9
  3. 34N. Djiga7.0
  4. 38J. Tchatchoua6.5
  1. 1J. Sá6.3

Wolves4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Wolves · Bench

Coach: Cesar Peixoto

Portsmouth · Bench

Coach: J. Mousinho

Key players

Wolvesavailable

  1. André · Midfielder847 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Sá · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. N. Djiga · Defender790 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Portsmouthavailable

  1. A. Kamara · Midfielder849 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. A. Segečić · Midfielder836 min in 10 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Pack · Midfielder734 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Wolves the most probability, 31.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Wolves · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Wolves · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Wolves · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (12 Oct 2026 → 13 Oct 2026), history from (8 Oct 2023 → 9 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (13 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026), history from (9 Oct 2023 → 10 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Wolves -0.2, draw +0.1, Portsmouth +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 16 Oct 2026), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 12 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 17 Oct 2026), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 13 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  6. v6 · Wolves -14.4, draw +4.6, Portsmouth +9.8 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 19 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,619 → 1,643), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 15 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 6 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 23.0%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.468, Brier 0.939 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Wolves65.7
Portsmouth42.8
Wolves — 65.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 72% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 58% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 72% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 37% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Portsmouth — 42.895% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 42% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 62% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 58% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 20 Oct, 19:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.