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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 1

Sint-Truiden v Iberia 1999

Sint-TruidenR. Vanwesemael 11′ · I. Sebaoui 88′
2–0FT · HT 1–0
Iberia 1999
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Mehmet Türkmen
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: Mehmet Türkmen
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Sint-Truiden⁩ win. The model gave it 71.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.045 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.35 – 0.79⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.73 – 0.15⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 11.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 8.3%

⁦2–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v5 computed 15 Oct, 19:45 UK time, 14 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 14 Oct on 15,577 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 4′VAR · Sint-Truiden · Goal disallowedN. Ishiwatari
  3. 11′Goal · Sint-TruidenR. Vanwesemael · (assist S. Baždar)
  4. 36′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenN. Ishiwatari
  5. 71′Substitution · Iberia 1999J. Tiboue on · L. Brune off
  6. 71′Substitution · Iberia 1999S. Ende on · Z. Natchkebia off
  7. 79′Substitution · Sint-TruidenF. Soelle Soelle on · S. Baždar off
  8. 79′Substitution · Iberia 1999A. Bartishvili on · A. Dzagania off
  9. 84′Substitution · Sint-TruidenK. Matsuzawa on · N. Mbuku off
  10. 84′Substitution · Iberia 1999G. Kobuladze on · P. Čančar off
  11. 84′Substitution · Iberia 1999G. Kutsia on · N. Dadiani off
  12. 88′Goal · Sint-TruidenI. Sebaoui · (assist F. Soelle Soelle)
  13. 90+2′Substitution · Sint-TruidenS. Shinkawa on · I. Sebaoui off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 4Blocked shots0
  • 4Corners0
  • 1.73Expected goals (xG)0.15
  • 24Fouls11
  • 2Offsides0
  • 90%Pass accuracy82%
  • 635Passes478
  • 571Accurate passes394
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 1Saves3
  • 20Shots4
  • 11Shots off target3
  • 5Shots on target1
  • 1Yellow cards0

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Sint-Truiden
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Sissako907.0002–0
J. Pupe908.000126
L. Kokubo906.600––0
N. Ishiwatari907.300216
R. Vanwesemael908.3102–4
R. Merlen907.300–41
S. Taniguchi907.300––1
V. Musliu908.200––2
I. Sebaoui898.510321
N. Mbuku847.200422
S. Baždar797.301250
F. Soelle Soelle116.701–20
K. Matsuzawa106.700––1
S. Shinkawa1–00––0
Iberia 1999
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Amisulashvili906.000––1
B. Kardava906.900––3
G. Makaridze906.300––0
J. Jinjolava906.9002–2
N. Sikharulashvili906.7001–0
V. Selimović906.700–10
N. Dadiani846.300––0
P. Čančar847.000––2
A. Dzagania796.700––1
L. Brune716.900––6
Z. Natchkebia716.200––1
J. Tiboue196.200––0
S. Ende196.500110
A. Bartishvili116.200––0
G. Kobuladze106.500––0
G. Kutsia106.300––0

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Iberia 19994-4-2

  1. 31G. Makaridze6.3
  1. 25A. Amisulashvili6.0
  2. 3P. Čančar7.0
  3. 4V. Selimović6.7
  4. 5J. Jinjolava (c)6.9
  1. 18L. Brune6.9
  2. 6N. Dadiani6.3
  3. 8B. Kardava6.9
  4. 10Z. Natchkebia6.2
  1. 9A. Dzagania6.7
  2. 19N. Sikharulashvili6.7

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sint-Truiden

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Sint-Truiden · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Iberia 1999 · Bench

Coach: Andriy Demchenko

Key players

Sint-Truidenavailable

No match of this competition played before this one, so no minutes to count yet.

Iberia 1999available

No match of this competition played before this one, so no minutes to count yet.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Sint-Truiden the most probability, 54.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Sint-Truiden · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Sint-Truiden · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Sint-Truiden · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2 · Early pre-match: first available version.
    The early pre-match version reported no inputs, so nothing can be attributed.
  3. v3 · Sint-Truiden -0.2, draw +0.1, Iberia 1999 +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,135 → 15,091), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Sint-Truiden +0.8, draw -0.4, Iberia 1999 -0.4 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,091 → 15,579), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · Sint-Truiden +0.8, draw -0.4, Iberia 1999 -0.4 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,579 → 15,577), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 10 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Sint-Truiden. Version 5 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 71.9%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.329, Brier 0.121 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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