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Picked from 20 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Westerlo v Beveren

WesterloS. Saito 10′, 90′ · N. Bassette 45′, 55′
4–4FT · HT 2–1
BeverenE. Kaboré 33′ · C. Lokesa 67′ · V. Olatunji 88′, 90′
Where to watch

· Het Kuipje, Westerlo

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: A. Letellier
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Het Kuipje, Westerlo
  • Referee: A. Letellier
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 18.4%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.232 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.45 – 1.12⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.33 – 2.14⁩
Goals
⁦4 – 4⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.5%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 8.5%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 6.9%

⁦4–4⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 24 Oct, 19:32 UK time, 12 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 23 Oct on 927 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 10′Goal · WesterloS. Saito · (assist I. Sakamoto)
  3. 33′Goal · BeverenE. Kaboré · (assist J. Margaritha)
  4. 45+3′Yellow card · BeverenC. Brüls
  5. 45′Goal · WesterloN. Bassette
  6. 55′Goal (penalty) · WesterloN. Bassette
  7. 62′Yellow card · BeverenB. Godeau
  8. 67′Goal · BeverenC. Lokesa · (assist A. Verschueren)
  9. 88′Goal · BeverenV. Olatunji · (assist L. Jans)
  10. 90+9′Red card · WesterloR. Laalaoui
  11. 90+9′Yellow card · BeverenC. Janssens
  12. 90+6′Yellow card · BeverenV. Olatunji
  13. 90′Goal (penalty) · WesterloS. Saito
  14. 90′Goal · BeverenV. Olatunji · (assist A. Verschueren)
Substitutions (10)
  1. 61′Substitution · WesterloF. Ferraro on · D. Ourega off
  2. 65′Substitution · BeverenC. Lokesa on · C. Brüls off
  3. 65′Substitution · BeverenV. Olatunji on · C. Oumar Condé off
  4. 75′Substitution · BeverenF. Slegers on · J. Margaritha off
  5. 83′Substitution · WesterloB. Balogh on · S. Kimura off
  6. 83′Substitution · WesterloR. Laalaoui on · N. Bohamdi-Kamoni off
  7. 83′Substitution · WesterloF. Tsimba on · N. Bassette off
  8. 83′Substitution · WesterloY. Min-hyeok on · I. Sakamoto off
  9. 83′Substitution · BeverenY. Gomis on · B. Godeau off
  10. 83′Substitution · BeverenL. Mertens on · E. Kaboré off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 50%Possession50%
  • 2.33Expected goals (xG)2.14

Attack

  • 15Shots17
  • 6Shots on target7
  • 7Shots off target7
  • 2Blocked shots3
  • 3Corners7
  • 2Offsides3
  • 3Saves2

Passing

  • 452Passes459
  • 383Accurate passes388
  • 85%Pass accuracy85%

Discipline

  • 3Fouls12
  • 0Yellow cards4
  • 1Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Westerlo
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Lapage906.9001–2
A. Jungdal905.500––0
C. Sandra906.500––3
I. Fofana906.9002–3
L. Flø906.300–13
S. Saito908.620330
I. Sakamoto837.001112
N. Bohamdi-Kamoni836.5002–0
N. Bassette838.9203–0
S. Kimura837.300––2
D. Ourega617.500–11
F. Ferraro296.200–11
B. Balogh216.200––0
F. Tsimba216.200––0
Y. Min-hyeok217.0001–0
R. Laalaoui166.000––0
Beveren
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Verschueren907.602225
C. Janssens905.900––3
J. Schenk905.600––0
L. Jans907.001251
S. Dewaele906.300–14
V. Boone906.000––0
B. Godeau835.7001–0
E. Kaboré837.2102–1
J. Margaritha756.601332
C. Oumar Condé656.900–25
C. Brüls656.300121
C. Lokesa257.9101–0
V. Olatunji258.2202–0
L. Mertens216.500––0
Y. Gomis216.700––0
F. Slegers156.700–10

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Westerlo
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Jungdal–––
Beveren
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Schenk–––

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

Beveren4-3-3

  1. 1Schenk5.6
  1. 21Jans (c)7.0
  2. 3Boone6.0
  3. 31GodeauBooked 62′ · Off 83′5.7
  4. 4JanssensBooked 90+9′5.9
  1. 24Verschueren7.6
  2. 18Dewaele6.3
  3. 44Oumar CondéOff 65′6.9
  1. 22BrülsBooked 45+3′ · Off 65′6.3
  2. 9KaboréGoal 33′ · Off 83′7.2
  3. 17MargarithaOff 75′6.6
  1. 9BassetteGoal 45′ · Goal 55′ (pen.) · Off 83′8.9
  1. 7SaitoGoal 10′ · Goal 90′ (pen.)8.6
  2. 13SakamotoOff 83′7.0
  3. 11Bohamdi-KamoniOff 83′6.5
  1. 14Sandra6.5
  2. 45Fofana6.9
  1. 28OuregaOff 61′7.5
  2. 4Lapage6.9
  3. 5KimuraOff 83′7.3
  4. 2Flø6.3
  1. 99Jungdal (c)5.5

Westerlo4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Westerlo · Bench

Coach: Issame Charai

Beveren · Bench

Coach: Tim Bakens

Key players

Westerloavailable

  1. A. Jungdal · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. S. Kimura · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. C. Sandra · Midfielder719 min in 8 matches · 2 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Beverenavailable

  1. S. Dewaele · Midfielder712 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. C. Janssens · Defender683 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. B. Godeau · Defender670 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Westerlo the most probability, 47.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Westerlo · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Westerlo · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Westerlo · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Westerlo +9.1, draw -4.1, Beveren -5.0 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 23 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (918 → 927), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 19 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 4–4: a draw. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 18.4%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.694, Brier 1.129 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Westerlo55.8
Beveren31.0
Westerlo — 55.895% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 34% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 13 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 74% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Beveren — 31.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 15 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 62% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 24 Oct, 19:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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