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Picked from 31 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Kauno Žalgiris v Brann

Kauno ŽalgirisR. Oliveira 12′
1–4FT · HT 1–3
BrannN. Castro 7′ · N. Holm 25′, 40′, 85′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: P. Ilic
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: P. Ilic
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Brann⁩ win. The model gave it 48.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.159 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.96 – 1.49⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.56 – 3.37⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 4⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 9.6%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 9.1%

⁦1–4⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 22 Oct, 17:25 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 21 Oct on 19,965 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:45Kick-off
  2. 3′VAR · Brann · Penalty confirmedN. Holm
  3. 7′Goal (penalty) · BrannN. Castro
  4. 12′Goal · Kauno ŽalgirisR. Oliveira
  5. 25′Goal · BrannN. Holm · (assist J. Soltvedt)
  6. 36′Yellow card · Kauno ŽalgirisI. Fiolić
  7. 37′Yellow card · Kauno ŽalgirisLeonardo
  8. 40′Goal · BrannN. Holm · (assist E. Gudmundsson)
  9. 42′Yellow card · Kauno ŽalgirisF. Ourega
  10. 53′Yellow card · Kauno ŽalgirisN. Edokpolor
  11. 68′Yellow card · BrannE. Gudmundsson
  12. 85′Goal · BrannN. Holm · (assist K. Eriksen)
  13. 90′Yellow card · Kauno ŽalgirisA. Hernández
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Substitution · Kauno ŽalgirisA. Hernández on · R. Lekiatas off
  2. 46′Substitution · Kauno ŽalgirisV. Slivka on · I. Fiolić off
  3. 46′Substitution · Kauno ŽalgirisL. Kreković on · Leonardo off
  4. 63′Substitution · Kauno ŽalgirisM. Burba on · F. Ourega off
  5. 68′Substitution · BrannK. Eriksen on · S. Magnússon off
  6. 75′Substitution · BrannT. Pedersen on · J. Torsvik off
  7. 75′Substitution · BrannV. Dragsnes on · J. Soltvedt off
  8. 82′Substitution · Kauno ŽalgirisG. Debeljuh on · R. Oliveira off
  9. 88′Substitution · BrannB. Finne on · E. Gudmundsson off
  10. 88′Substitution · BrannJ. Laegreid on · N. Castro off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticslimited

Match

  • 33%Possession67%
  • 1.56Expected goals (xG)3.37

Attack

  • 12Shots21
  • 2Shots on target8
  • 7Shots off target9
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 1Corners4
  • 2Offsides1
  • 4Saves1

Passing

  • 333Passes701
  • 256Accurate passes618
  • 77%Pass accuracy88%

Discipline

  • 12Fouls18
  • 5Yellow cards1

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Kauno Žalgiris
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Kalik906.7–0––3
A. Tolordava905.9–0113
G. Sirgedas907.0–03–1
J. Moutachy906.9–0–21
N. Edokpolor906.2–0–11
T. Švedkauskas906.9–0–––
R. Oliveira827.21021–
F. Ourega636.5–0–––
A. Hernández456.5–0–––
I. Fiolić456.5–0–11
L. Kreković457.2–0––3
Leonardo456.2–01––
R. Lekiatas456.3–0–––
V. Slivka456.7–01––
M. Burba276.3–011–
G. Debeljuh86.3–0–––
Brann
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
F. Knudsen906.9–0–––
J. Sorensen907.6–0––3
K. Máni Ingason906.5–0111
N. Wassberg906.6–0–24
N. Holm909.330511
S. Nilsen906.7–0–––
E. Gudmundsson887.3–1–5–
N. Castro888.210352
J. Soltvedt756.9–1121
J. Torsvik757.5–0313
S. Magnússon686.9–031–
K. Eriksen227.3–1–11
T. Pedersen156.6–0–––
V. Dragsnes157.0–01––
B. Finne2––0–––
J. Laegreid2––0–––

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playerlimited

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Kauno Žalgiris
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Oliveira0.570.010.28
F. Ourega0.340.01–
M. Burba0.290.08–
G. Sirgedas0.160.010.77
A. Tolordava0.120.00–
V. Slivka0.070.01–
A. Hernández–0.00–
A. Kalik–0.00–
G. Debeljuh–0.00–
I. Fiolić–0.03–
J. Moutachy–0.20–
L. Kreković–0.01–
N. Edokpolor–0.05–
R. Lekiatas–0.00–
T. Švedkauskas–0.00–
Brann
PlayerxGxAxGOT
N. Holm1.300.001.87
N. Castro0.860.560.70
J. Torsvik0.520.521.07
S. Magnússon0.430.02–
K. Máni Ingason0.180.19–
J. Soltvedt0.060.40–
V. Dragsnes0.060.04–
F. Knudsen–0.01–
K. Eriksen–0.46–
N. Wassberg–0.12–
S. Nilsen–0.00–
T. Pedersen–0.03–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Not shown: 7 players the source listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Brann4-3-3

  1. 12Nilsen6.7
  1. 15TorsvikOff 75′7.5
  2. 3Knudsen (c)6.9
  3. 18Sorensen7.6
  4. 17SoltvedtOff 75′6.9
  1. 10Máni Ingason6.5
  2. 25Wassberg6.6
  3. 19GudmundssonBooked 68′ · Off 88′7.3
  1. 22MagnússonOff 68′6.9
  2. 29HolmGoal 25′ · Goal 40′ · Goal 85′9.3
  3. 9CastroGoal 7′ (pen.) · Off 88′8.2
  1. 19OliveiraGoal 12′ · Off 82′7.2
  1. 15LeonardoBooked 37′ · Off 46′6.2
  2. 10Sirgedas (c)7.0
  3. 17FiolićBooked 36′ · Off 46′6.5
  4. 70OuregaBooked 42′ · Off 63′6.5
  1. 20Kalik6.7
  1. 37EdokpolorBooked 53′6.2
  2. 77LekiatasOff 46′6.3
  3. 3Tolordava5.9
  4. 45Moutachy6.9
  1. 55Švedkauskas6.9

Kauno Žalgiris4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Kauno Žalgiris · Bench

Coach: Eivinas Cerniauskas

Brann · Bench

Coach: E. Horneland

Key players

Kauno Žalgirisavailable

  1. A. Hernández · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. A. Tolordava · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Moutachy · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Brannlimited

  1. J. Soltvedt · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. E. Gudmundsson · Midfielder180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. F. Knudsen · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for 2 of 7 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Brann the most probability, 21.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Brann · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Brann · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Kauno Žalgiris · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Kauno Žalgiris -0.3, draw 0.0, Brann +0.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Kauno Žalgiris -0.1, draw -0.2, Brann +0.3 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (15 Oct 2026 → 21 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,614 → 19,965), history from (11 Oct 2023 → 17 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–4: Brann. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 49.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.714, Brier 0.391 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.