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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 15

Portsmouth v Stoke City

PortsmouthT. Shade 6′
1–2FT · HT 1–0
Stoke CityJ. McGlynn 59′ · B. Wilmot 77′
Where to watch

· Fratton Park, Portsmouth

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Ben Speedie
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Fratton Park, Portsmouth
  • Referee: Ben Speedie
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Stoke City⁩ win. The model gave it 28.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.354 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.33 – 1.01⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.70 – 0.88⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.2%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.6%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.5%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.6%

⁦1–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 07 Nov, 12:06 UK time, 23 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 6 Nov on 1,657 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 12:30Kick-off
  2. 6′Goal · PortsmouthT. Shade
  3. 22′Yellow card · PortsmouthE. Adams
  4. 29′Yellow card · Stoke CityJ. Tchamadeu
  5. 45+1′Yellow card · PortsmouthR. Poole
  6. 55′Yellow card · Stoke CityR. Boženík
  7. 57′Substitution · Stoke CityL. Bombino on · J. Tchamadeu off
  8. 57′Substitution · Stoke CityG. Hirst on · R. Boženík off
  9. 59′Goal · Stoke CityJ. McGlynn · (assist L. Bombino)
  10. 65′Substitution · PortsmouthT. Waddingham on · A. Segečić off
  11. 72′Yellow card · Stoke CityE. Galbraith
  12. 75′Substitution · PortsmouthZ. Swanson on · J. Meghoma off
  13. 75′Substitution · PortsmouthR. Robert Shein on · M. Pack off
  14. 77′Goal · Stoke CityB. Wilmot
  15. 81′Substitution · PortsmouthJ. Murphy on · O. Bailey off
  16. 81′Substitution · PortsmouthR. Kavuma-McQueen on · A. Kamara off
  17. 86′Substitution · Stoke CityJ. Devenny on · M. Manhoef off
  18. 90+4′Yellow card · PortsmouthT. Devlin

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 2Blocked shots0
  • 7Corners0
  • 0.70Expected goals (xG)0.88
  • 14Fouls12
  • 2Offsides5
  • 373Passes324
  • 280Accurate passes230
  • 55%Possession45%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Saves2
  • 8Shots4
  • 3Shots off target1
  • 3Shots on target3
  • 3Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Portsmouth
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Adams906.200025
M. Dia906.300002
N. Schmid905.600000
R. Poole906.000110
T. Devlin905.300001
T. Shade907.310202
A. Kamara816.000000
O. Bailey816.400214
J. Meghoma756.100001
M. Pack756.400100
A. Segečić655.800111
T. Waddingham256.300100
R. Robert Shein156.100002
Z. Swanson155.900000
J. Murphy95.700000
R. Kavuma-McQueen96.500001
Stoke City
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Johnson905.900001
B. Wilmot907.210201
B. Lawal906.700001
D. Soumaré906.500002
E. Galbraith906.200101
J. McGlynn907.310100
L. Graham906.200003
V. Johansson907.000000
M. Manhoef866.400011
J. Tchamadeu576.100002
R. Boženík576.300000
G. Hirst336.700002
L. Bombino336.301010
J. Devenny46.600000

xG (Highlightly) available

Portsmouth
PlayerxGxAxGOT
T. Waddingham0.210.00–
O. Bailey0.160.200.15
T. Shade0.110.160.81
R. Poole0.090.080.21
A. Segečić0.080.01–
M. Pack0.020.01–
A. Kamara–0.10–
E. Adams–0.05–
J. Meghoma–0.03–
J. Murphy–0.00–
M. Dia–0.00–
N. Schmid–0.01–
R. Robert Shein–0.00–
T. Devlin–0.03–
Z. Swanson–0.01–
Stoke City
PlayerxGxAxGOT
B. Wilmot0.640.010.95
J. McGlynn0.210.020.74
E. Galbraith0.020.020.05
B. Johnson–0.00–
D. Soumaré–0.01–
G. Hirst–0.00–
J. Tchamadeu–0.00–
L. Bombino–0.01–
L. Graham–0.02–
M. Manhoef–0.04–
R. Boženík–0.02–
V. Johansson–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Stoke City3-4-3

  1. 1V. Johansson7.0
  1. 16B. Wilmot7.2
  2. 18B. Lawal6.7
  3. 5L. Graham6.2
  1. 22J. Tchamadeu6.1
  2. 27D. Soumaré6.5
  3. 8E. Galbraith6.2
  4. 2B. Johnson5.9
  1. 7J. McGlynn7.3
  2. 9R. Boženík6.3
  3. 42M. Manhoef6.4
  1. 17T. Shade7.3
  1. 11A. Kamara6.0
  2. 27O. Bailey6.4
  3. 10A. Segečić5.8
  1. 7M. Pack6.4
  2. 38E. Adams6.2
  1. 16J. Meghoma6.1
  2. 55M. Dia6.3
  3. 5R. Poole6.0
  4. 24T. Devlin5.3
  1. 1N. Schmid5.6

Portsmouth4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Portsmouth · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Stoke City · Bench

Coach: Mark Robins

Key players

Portsmouthavailable

  1. A. Kamara · Forward1,111 min in 14 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. A. Segečić · Midfielder1,104 min in 14 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Pack · Midfielder951 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 14 matches played.

Stoke Cityavailable

  1. V. Johansson · Goalkeeper1,260 min in 14 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. B. Wilmot · Defender1,215 min in 14 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. E. Galbraith · Midfielder1,170 min in 13 matches · 3 goals · 4 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 14 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Portsmouth the most probability, 15.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Portsmouth · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Portsmouth · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Portsmouth · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Portsmouth +2.7, draw +0.7, Stoke City -3.4 points (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 3 Nov 2026), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 30 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Portsmouth -0.5, draw +0.7, Stoke City -0.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (3 Nov 2026 → 6 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,633 → 1,657), history from (30 Oct 2023 → 2 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Stoke City. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 28.1%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.270, Brier 0.788 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Portsmouth57.3
Stoke City44.1
Portsmouth — 57.395% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Stoke City — 44.195% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 25% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 07 Nov, 12:05 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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