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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Scottish League Cup· 2026/27 · Semi-finals

Rangers v Aberdeen

RangersR. Don Naderi 83′
1–0FT · HT 0–0
Aberdeen
Where to watch

· Hampden Park, Glasgow

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: R. Lee
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Hampden Park, Glasgow
  • Referee: R. Lee
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Rangers⁩ win. The model gave it 71.2%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.047 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.27 – 0.77⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 12.3%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.5%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 8.6%

⁦1–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 30 Oct, 21:50 UK time, 19 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 29 Oct on 20,024 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:30Kick-off
  2. 36′Yellow card · AberdeenA. Afeez
  3. 41′Yellow card · RangersD. Sterling
  4. 83′Goal · RangersR. Don Naderi · (assist J. Penrice)
  5. 86′Yellow card · AberdeenN. Devlin
Substitutions (10)
  1. 14′Substitution · AberdeenS. Armstrong on · E. Gyamfi off
  2. 55′Substitution · AberdeenM. Ntelo on · A. Mouloua off
  3. 65′Substitution · RangersD. Neil on · T. Rommens off
  4. 65′Substitution · RangersD. Gassama on · M. Kim off
  5. 88′Substitution · RangersB. Godfrey on · E. Fernandez off
  6. 88′Substitution · RangersT. Chukwuani on · K. Kelsy off
  7. 88′Substitution · RangersF. Curtis on · B. Bouanani off
  8. 88′Substitution · AberdeenT. Yogane on · A. Afeez off
  9. 88′Substitution · AberdeenL. Smith on · C. Ronan off
  10. 88′Substitution · AberdeenF. Marshall on · N. Devlin off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Rangers

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Aberdeen

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Rangers · Bench

Coach: Derek McInnes

Aberdeen · Bench

Coach: Stephen Robinson

Key players

Rangersnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Aberdeennot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish League Cup 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Rangers the most probability, 53.0 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Rangers · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Rangers · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Rangers · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Rangers +0.1, draw 0.0, Aberdeen -0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (28 Oct 2026 → 29 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,022 → 20,024), history from (24 Oct 2023 → 25 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: Rangers. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 71.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.341, Brier 0.128 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.