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Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 14

Cardiff v West Ham

CardiffJ. Moylan 11′, 37′, 39′
3–3FT · HT 3–0
West HamD. Mukasa 58′ · A. Engels 65′ · M. Kilman 82′
Where to watch

· Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Edward Duckworth
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
  • Referee: Edward Duckworth
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 19.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.191 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.58 – 2.47⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.19 – 2.81⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 3⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 7.0%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 6.9%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 6.6%
  • ⁦2–3⁩ 5.5%

⁦3–3⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 04 Nov, 19:20 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 3 Nov on 1,633 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 11′Goal · CardiffJ. Moylan · (assist A. Robertson)
  3. 23′Yellow card · West HamM. Kilman
  4. 25′Yellow card · West HamS. Magassa
  5. 37′Penalty · CardiffJ. Moylan
  6. 39′Goal · CardiffJ. Moylan · (assist J. Bagan)
  7. 45′Substitution · West HamE. Mayers on · Morato off
  8. 45′Substitution · West HamM. Kanté on · S. Magassa off
  9. 45′Substitution · West HamJ. Piroe on · V. Castellanos off
  10. 55′Substitution · CardiffJ. Colwill on · R. Colwill off
  11. 56′Substitution · CardiffC. Ashford on · C. Willock off
  12. 58′Goal · West HamD. Mukasa · (assist J. Bowen)
  13. 65′Goal · West HamA. Engels · (assist J. Piroe)
  14. 69′Substitution · West HamE. Austbø on · M. Solomon off
  15. 72′Substitution · CardiffD. Turnbull on · C. Scanlon off
  16. 72′Substitution · CardiffR. Kpakio on · P. Ng off
  17. 82′Goal · West HamM. Kilman · (assist J. Bowen)
  18. 84′Yellow card · West HamJ. Veltman
  19. 88′Substitution · West HamT. Souček on · J. Veltman off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 1Blocked shots4
  • 4Corners6
  • 1.19Expected goals (xG)2.81
  • 10Fouls11
  • 1Offsides1
  • 387Passes482
  • 314Accurate passes407
  • 44%Possession56%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 7Saves1
  • 7Shots18
  • 2Shots off target4
  • 4Shots on target10
  • 0Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Cardiff
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Robertson907.101020
J. Moylan908.230310
J. Bagan906.501012
N. Trott906.700000
O. Tanner906.600112
W. Fish906.200101
Y. Salech906.400100
C. Scanlon726.400000
P. Ng726.200101
C. Willock566.000001
R. Colwill555.800000
J. Colwill355.900010
C. Ashford346.500001
D. Turnbull185.900001
R. Kpakio185.800000
West Ham
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Engels908.010124
D. Mukasa908.010130
J. Bowen908.602252
K. Mavropanos906.800212
M. Hermansen906.300000
M. Kilman906.710111
J. Veltman886.200013
M. Solomon696.400200
E. Mayers456.600101
J. Piroe457.001210
M. Kanté456.000110
Morato456.000002
S. Magassa455.600010
V. Castellanos456.800200
E. Austbø217.200201
T. Souček25.700100

xG (Highlightly)limited

Cardiff
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Moylan1.000.021.86
W. Fish0.080.00–
Y. Salech0.040.010.25
O. Tanner0.020.01–
P. Ng0.020.01–
A. Robertson–0.06–
C. Scanlon–0.00–
C. Willock–0.01–
C. Ashford–0.00–
D. Turnbull–0.16–
J. Bagan–0.08–
J. Colwill–0.01–
N. Trott–0.01–
R. Kpakio–0.00–
R. Colwill–0.01–
West Ham
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Kilman0.580.220.94
A. Engels0.310.070.68
D. Mukasa0.310.040.78
M. Kanté0.280.030.53
K. Mavropanos0.260.03–
J. Bowen0.220.800.28
V. Castellanos0.200.010.97
J. Piroe0.190.050.06
M. Solomon0.090.03–
T. Souček0.080.000.64
E. Mayers0.040.00–
J. Veltman–0.11–
M. Hermansen–0.00–
Morato–0.01–
S. Magassa–0.03–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

West Ham4-4-1-1

  1. 1M. Hermansen6.3
  1. 34J. Veltman6.2
  2. 15K. Mavropanos6.8
  3. 3M. Kilman6.7
  4. 5Morato6.0
  1. 20J. Bowen8.6
  2. 27S. Magassa5.6
  3. 7A. Engels8.0
  4. 10M. Solomon6.4
  1. 14D. Mukasa8.0
  1. 11V. Castellanos6.8
  1. 9Y. Salech6.4
  1. 16C. Willock6.0
  2. 10R. Colwill5.8
  3. 8J. Moylan8.2
  4. 11O. Tanner6.6
  1. 18A. Robertson7.1
  1. 23C. Scanlon6.4
  2. 3J. Bagan6.5
  3. 2W. Fish6.2
  4. 38P. Ng6.2
  1. 1N. Trott6.7

Cardiff4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Cardiff · Bench

Coach: B. Barry-Murphy

West Ham · Bench

Coach: S. Parker

Key players

Cardiffavailable

  1. N. Trott · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Bagan · Defender1,149 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. A. Robertson · Midfielder1,140 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

West Hamavailable

  1. M. Kilman · Defender1,170 min in 13 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Hermansen · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. J. Bowen · Midfielder1,160 min in 13 matches · 7 goals · 5 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives West Ham the most probability, 33.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours West Ham · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours West Ham · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Cardiff · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Cardiff -0.2, draw -0.1, West Ham +0.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (27 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,645 → 1,633), history from (23 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Cardiff +7.4, draw +3.4, West Ham -10.8 points (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 3 Nov 2026), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 30 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–3: a draw. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 19.3%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.643, Brier 1.032 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Cardiff67.7
West Ham88.2
Cardiff — 67.795% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 58% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 87% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

West Ham — 88.295% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 04 Nov, 19:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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