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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Hibernian v Celtic

Hibernian
1–2FT · HT 1–2
Celtic
Where to watch

· Easter Road, Edinburgh

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: R. Lee
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Easter Road, Edinburgh
  • Referee: R. Lee
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Celtic⁩ win. The model gave it 55.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.124 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.08 – 1.84⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.19 – 1.15⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 6.1%

⁦1–2⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 25 Oct, 11:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 24 Oct on 685 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 12:00Kick-off
  2. 3′Goal · HibernianO. Elding · (assist J. Newell)
  3. 5′Own goal · CelticJ. Kerr
  4. 43′Goal · CelticC. Durán
  5. 45+1′Yellow card · CelticK. Høgh
  6. 47′Yellow card · HibernianT. Klidje
  7. 52′Substitution · CelticA. Johnston on · C. Donovan off
  8. 64′Substitution · CelticH. Hassan on · K. Høgh off
  9. 64′Substitution · CelticJota on · C. Osmand off
  10. 68′Substitution · HibernianR. Matondo on · T. Klidje off
  11. 68′Substitution · HibernianA. Šuto on · J. McGrath off
  12. 73′Substitution · CelticS. Mheuka on · C. Durán off
  13. 73′Substitution · CelticC. Carter-Vickers on · A. Johnston off
  14. 77′Substitution · HibernianA. Abdulai on · J. Newell off
  15. 80′Yellow card · CelticK. Tierney
  16. 82′Substitution · HibernianG. Hanley on · M. Chaiwa off
  17. 85′Yellow card · HibernianM. Ivezić
  18. 85′Yellow card · CelticS. Mheuka

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 7Blocked shots6
  • 2Corners6
  • 1.19Expected goals (xG)1.15
  • 15Fouls15
  • 3Offsides2
  • 76%Pass accuracy85%
  • 359Passes568
  • 272Accurate passes486
  • 39%Possession61%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves1
  • 13Shots15
  • 4Shots off target5
  • 2Shots on target4
  • 2Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Hibernian
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Mayor905.500103
F. Passlack906.600032
J. Kerr905.900210
J. Mulligan906.100111
M. Ivezić905.900000
O. Elding907.710220
R. Sallinger905.800000
M. Chaiwa826.400200
J. Newell777.201120
J. McGrath686.200011
T. Klidje685.600103
A. Šuto226.300000
R. Matondo226.100300
A. Abdulai136.000000
G. Hanley86.100000
Celtic
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Nygren906.700140
C. McGregor906.500103
D. Murray906.700000
K. Tierney906.100010
L. Scales907.200002
M. Baur906.900124
S. Johnstone906.600000
C. Durán737.810412
C. Osmand647.100220
K. Høgh646.200200
C. Donovan526.800003
H. Hassan266.800211
Jota267.000120
A. Johnston216.500011
C. Carter-Vickers176.400001
S. Mheuka176.300100

xG (Highlightly)limited

Hibernian
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Sallinger–––
Celtic
PlayerxGxAxGOT
S. Johnstone–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 2 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Celtic4-2-3-1

  1. 26S. Johnstone6.6
  1. 51C. Donovan6.8
  2. 47D. Murray6.7
  3. 5L. Scales7.2
  4. 63K. Tierney6.1
  1. 42C. McGregor6.5
  2. 22M. Baur6.9
  1. 11C. Durán7.8
  2. 8B. Nygren6.7
  3. 19C. Osmand7.1
  1. 9K. Høgh6.2
  1. 7O. Elding7.7
  1. 18T. Klidje5.6
  2. 17J. McGrath6.2
  3. 8J. Mulligan6.1
  1. 11J. Newell7.2
  2. 14M. Chaiwa6.4
  1. 3A. Mayor5.5
  2. 5M. Ivezić5.9
  3. 6J. Kerr5.9
  4. 25F. Passlack6.6
  1. 1R. Sallinger5.8

Hibernian4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Hibernian · Bench

Coach: M. Reedijk

Celtic · Bench

Coach: M. O'Neill

Key players

Hibernianavailable

  1. J. Kerr · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. R. Sallinger · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Mulligan · Midfielder795 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Celticavailable

  1. V. Sinisalo · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. C. McGregor · Midfielder690 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. C. Donovan · Defender683 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Celtic the most probability, 32.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Celtic · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Celtic · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Hibernian · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Hibernian -0.4, draw -0.2, Celtic +0.6 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 18 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (679 → 685), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 14 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (18 Oct 2026 → 24 Oct 2026), history from (14 Oct 2023 → 20 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Celtic. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 55.3%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.592, Brier 0.299 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Hibernian46.7
Celtic84.9
Hibernian — 46.795% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Celtic — 84.995% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 89% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 89% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 25 Oct, 11:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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