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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 3

Viktoria Plzeň v Levski Sofia

Viktoria PlzeňC. Kabongo 62′
1–2FT · HT 0–1
Levski SofiaE. Bala 44′ · Reinaldo 65′
Where to watch

· Doosan Arena, Pilsner

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Alejandro Hernandez
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Doosan Arena, Pilsner
  • Referee: Alejandro Hernandez
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Levski Sofia⁩ win. The model gave it 18.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.450 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.16 – 0.60⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.09 – 1.06⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 19.4%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 17.7%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.5%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 11.5%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.9%

⁦1–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 16 Oct, 20:05 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 15 Oct on 15,614 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 20′Yellow card · Levski SofiaM. Soula
  3. 44′Goal · Levski SofiaE. Bala · (assist Reinaldo)
  4. 60′Substitution · Levski SofiaA. Oko-Flex on · M. Soula off
  5. 60′Substitution · Viktoria PlzeňS. Lawal on · D. Višinský off
  6. 60′Substitution · Viktoria PlzeňS. Pirgić on · P. Hrošovský off
  7. 62′Goal · Viktoria PlzeňC. Kabongo · (assist C. Souaré)
  8. 65′Goal · Levski SofiaReinaldo · (assist Maicon)
  9. 74′Substitution · Levski SofiaA. Bouras on · E. Bala off
  10. 74′Substitution · Viktoria PlzeňA. Sojka on · T. Pališčák off
  11. 74′Substitution · Viktoria PlzeňB. Faal on · T. Ladra off
  12. 77′Substitution · Viktoria PlzeňM. Vydra on · C. Kabongo off
  13. 82′Substitution · Levski SofiaJ. Perea on · Reinaldo off
  14. 82′Substitution · Levski SofiaÁ. Centelles on · E. El Moubarik off
  15. 87′Yellow card · Viktoria PlzeňS. Pirgić

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 5Blocked shots2
  • 4Corners1
  • 1.09Expected goals (xG)1.06
  • 9Fouls11
  • 1Offsides0
  • 472Passes488
  • 397Accurate passes404
  • 63%Possession37%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Saves1
  • 13Shots6
  • 6Shots off target1
  • 2Shots on target3
  • 1Yellow cards1

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Viktoria Plzeň
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Memić906.400224
C. Souaré907.101024
D. Vavro907.000000
F. Wiegele905.700000
L. Červ906.400202
S. Dweh906.700102
C. Kabongo777.610301
T. Pališčák746.000013
T. Ladra746.600210
D. Višinský605.900101
P. Hrošovský606.100012
S. Lawal306.400110
S. Pirgić305.900101
A. Sojka166.500020
B. Faal166.200000
M. Vydra136.300000
Levski Sofia
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
Aldair907.200005
C. Makoun906.900003
K. Dimitrov906.900000
Maicon907.301122
M. Grujić906.500001
Serginho906.400102
S. Vutsov906.000000
E. El Moubarik826.700000
Reinaldo829.011320
E. Bala747.610112
M. Soula606.200001
A. Oko-Flex306.100000
A. Bouras166.300000
Á. Centelles86.500000
J. Perea86.400000

xG (Highlightly)limited

Viktoria Plzeň
PlayerxGxAxGOT
C. Kabongo0.350.000.44
S. Dweh0.190.02–
A. Memić0.120.11–
T. Ladra0.090.06–
D. Višinský0.040.00–
C. Souaré0.030.40–
L. Červ0.030.030.17
S. Lawal0.020.02–
A. Sojka–0.10–
D. Vavro–0.02–
F. Wiegele–0.00–
M. Vydra–0.06–
P. Hrošovský–0.01–
T. Pališčák–0.05–
Levski Sofia
PlayerxGxAxGOT
Reinaldo0.640.100.43
E. Bala0.360.020.44
Maicon0.090.550.12
Serginho0.060.01–
A. Bouras–0.00–
Aldair–0.00–
Á. Centelles–0.00–
A. Oko-Flex–0.00–
C. Makoun–0.00–
E. El Moubarik–0.01–
J. Perea–0.00–
K. Dimitrov–0.00–
M. Grujić–0.00–
M. Soula–0.00–
S. Vutsov–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Levski Sofia4-2-3-1

  1. 92S. Vutsov6.0
  1. 21Aldair7.2
  2. 50K. Dimitrov6.9
  3. 4C. Makoun6.9
  4. 3Maicon7.3
  1. 8M. Grujić6.5
  2. 19E. El Moubarik6.7
  1. 22M. Soula6.2
  2. 35Serginho6.4
  3. 17E. Bala7.6
  1. 7Reinaldo9.0
  1. 25C. Kabongo7.6
  2. 9D. Višinský5.9
  1. 18T. Ladra6.6
  2. 99A. Memić6.4
  1. 6L. Červ6.4
  2. 17P. Hrošovský6.1
  1. 19C. Souaré7.1
  2. 3D. Vavro7.0
  3. 40S. Dweh6.7
  4. 2T. Pališčák6.0
  1. 44F. Wiegele5.7

Viktoria Plzeň4-2-2-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Viktoria Plzeň · Bench

Coach: R. Kováč

Levski Sofia · Bench

Coach: Julio Velázquez

Key players

Viktoria Plzeňlimited

  1. S. Pirgić · Midfielder180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Sojka · Midfielder168 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsDoubtful · Health problems
  3. A. Memić · Midfielder142 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 2 of 4 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Levski Sofiaavailable

  1. S. Vutsov · Goalkeeper180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. Aldair · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. K. Dimitrov · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 2 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Viktoria Plzeň the most probability, 16.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Viktoria Plzeň · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Viktoria Plzeň · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Viktoria Plzeň · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Viktoria Plzeň -0.9, draw +0.3, Levski Sofia +0.6 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Levski Sofia. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 18.7%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.676, Brier 1.004 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.