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Picked from 21 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Konyaspor v Galatasaray

Konyaspor
0–4FT · HT 0–2
GalatasarayV. Osimhen 12′ · Y. Akgün 28′ · A. Batrakov 49′ · R. Leão 55′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: C. Aydin
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: C. Aydin
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Galatasaray⁩ win. The model gave it 55.5%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.118 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.94 – 1.74⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.38 – 2.80⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 4⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.1%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 11.1%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 10.4%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 7.7%

⁦0–4⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 30 Oct, 16:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 29 Oct on 1,011 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:00Kick-off
  2. 12′Goal · GalatasarayV. Osimhen · (assist G. Sara)
  3. 28′Goal · GalatasarayY. Akgün · (assist A. Batrakov)
  4. 31′Yellow card · GalatasarayG. Sara
  5. 45+6′Yellow card · KonyasporD. Türüç
  6. 49′Goal · GalatasarayA. Batrakov · (assist G. Sara)
  7. 53′VAR · Galatasaray · Penalty confirmedR. Leão
  8. 55′Goal (penalty) · GalatasarayR. Leão
  9. 90′Yellow card · KonyasporM. Jevtović
Substitutions (12)
  1. 40′Substitution · KonyasporD. Ertaş on · B. Han Güngördü off
  2. 46′Substitution · KonyasporE. Bardhi on · R. Tóth off
  3. 46′Substitution · KonyasporM. Mohamed on · J. Muleka off
  4. 56′Substitution · KonyasporU. Yazğılı on · Y. Andzouana off
  5. 61′Substitution · Galatasarayİ. Gündoğan on · A. Batrakov off
  6. 61′Substitution · GalatasarayL. Ugochukwu on · L. Torreira off
  7. 61′Substitution · GalatasarayR. Nhaga on · G. Sara off
  8. 61′Substitution · GalatasarayL. Sané on · Y. Akgün off
  9. 61′Substitution · GalatasarayD. Gül on · V. Osimhen off
  10. 69′Substitution · GalatasarayE. Bitshiabu on · D. Sánchez off
  11. 71′Substitution · KonyasporE. Colley on · J. Dompé off
  12. 82′Substitution · KonyasporE. Destan on · M. İbrahimoğlu off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 46%Possession54%
  • 1.38Expected goals (xG)2.80

Attack

  • 9Shots16
  • 1Shots on target8
  • 6Shots off target7
  • 2Blocked shots1
  • 3Corners9
  • 2Offsides2
  • 4Saves2

Passing

  • 385Passes462
  • 326Accurate passes418
  • 85%Pass accuracy90%

Discipline

  • 12Fouls11
  • 2Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Konyaspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Masuaku906.200–12
C. Awaziem906.200––3
D. Türüç906.200111
M. Jevtović907.200––3
R. Baniya906.300––2
M. İbrahimoğlu826.900––2
J. Dompé717.500–30
Y. Andzouana565.300––0
D. Ertaş506.900––0
E. Bardhi456.3002–0
J. Muleka456.3001–0
M. Mohamed456.300––1
R. Tóth455.9002–0
B. Han Güngördü405.300––0
U. Yazğılı346.900––0
E. Colley196.600–11
E. Destan86.6001–0
Galatasaray
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Elmalı907.000––2
R. Leão908.610421
R. Sallai907.000––1
U. Çakır907.600––0
W. Singo907.700––1
D. Sánchez697.0001–1
A. Batrakov618.611230
G. Sara617.602–51
L. Torreira617.200––2
V. Osimhen617.2105–0
Y. Akgün618.310120
D. Gül296.3001–0
İ. Gündoğan296.600–10
L. Sané297.200–21
L. Ugochukwu296.200––0
R. Nhaga296.7001–0
E. Bitshiabu216.900––1

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Konyaspor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Tóth0.790.010.34
E. Bardhi0.200.00–
J. Muleka0.190.00–
E. Destan0.100.00–
D. Türüç0.030.03–
A. Masuaku–0.15–
B. Han Güngördü–0.00–
C. Awaziem–0.00–
D. Ertaş–0.00–
E. Colley–0.00–
J. Dompé–0.81–
M. Jevtović–0.01–
M. İbrahimoğlu–0.01–
M. Mohamed–0.00–
R. Baniya–0.00–
U. Yazğılı–0.01–
Y. Andzouana–0.01–
Galatasaray
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Leão1.600.091.39
A. Batrakov0.430.040.70
V. Osimhen0.400.020.64
L. Ugochukwu0.080.01–
D. Gül0.070.00–
L. Sané0.060.15–
D. Sánchez0.050.01–
R. Nhaga0.030.00–
Y. Akgün0.020.350.05
E. Bitshiabu–0.00–
E. Elmalı–0.05–
G. Sara–0.33–
İ. Gündoğan–0.02–
L. Torreira–0.03–
R. Sallai–0.02–
U. Çakır–0.00–
W. Singo–0.01–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

Galatasaray4-2-3-1

  1. 1Çakır7.6
  1. 7Sallai7.0
  2. 6SánchezOff 69′7.0
  3. 90Singo7.7
  4. 17Elmalı7.0
  1. 34TorreiraOff 61′7.2
  2. 8SaraBooked 31′ · Off 61′7.6
  1. 11Akgün (c)Goal 28′ · Off 61′8.3
  2. 83BatrakovGoal 49′ · Off 61′8.6
  3. 27LeãoGoal 55′ (pen.)8.6
  1. 45OsimhenGoal 12′ · Off 61′7.2
  1. 11MulekaOff 46′6.3
  1. 91DompéOff 71′7.5
  2. 66TóthOff 46′5.9
  3. 9Türüç (c)Booked 45+6′6.2
  1. 77İbrahimoğluOff 82′6.9
  2. 8JevtovićBooked 90′7.2
  1. 26Masuaku6.2
  2. 15Awaziem6.2
  3. 22Baniya6.3
  4. 17AndzouanaOff 56′5.3
  1. 13Han GüngördüOff 40′5.3

Konyaspor4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Konyaspor · Bench

Coach: Ilhan Palut

Galatasaray · Bench

Coach: O. Buruk

Key players

Konyasporavailable

  1. M. İbrahimoğlu · Midfielder782 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Muleka · Forward732 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. D. Türüç · Midfielder690 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Galatasarayavailable

  1. D. Sánchez · Defender791 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. U. Çakır · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. A. Bardakcı · Defender701 min in 9 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsOut · Red Card

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Galatasaray the most probability, 30.2 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Galatasaray · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Galatasaray · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Konyaspor · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (22 Oct 2026 → 25 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,012 → 1,008), history from (18 Oct 2023 → 21 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Konyaspor +0.4, draw +1.6, Galatasaray -2.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (25 Oct 2026 → 26 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,008 → 1,013), history from (21 Oct 2023 → 22 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (26 Oct 2026 → 29 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,013 → 1,011), history from (22 Oct 2023 → 25 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–4: Galatasaray. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 55.5%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.589, Brier 0.299 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Konyaspor33.3
Galatasaray83.3
Konyaspor — 33.395% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 36% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Galatasaray — 83.395% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 37% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 30 Oct, 16:31 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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