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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Çorum FK v Rizespor

Çorum FKC. Ünder 38′ · Y. Moukoko 80′
2–1FT · HT 1–1
RizesporQ. Laci 32′
Where to watch

· Corum Stadyumu, Corum

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: D. Celik
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Corum Stadyumu, Corum
  • Referee: D. Celik
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Çorum FK⁩ win. The model gave it 60.2%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.102 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.69 – 1.61⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.71 – 0.84⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.9%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 7.1%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 6.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 6.3%
  • ⁦3–2⁩ 5.7%

⁦2–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v5 computed 16 Oct, 17:35 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 15 Oct on 1,003 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 18:00Kick-off
  2. 12′Yellow card · RizesporZ. Ariss
  3. 25′Substitution · Çorum FKA. Sengul on · A. Borza off
  4. 27′Yellow card · Çorum FKB. Ayberk Özdemir
  5. 32′Goal · RizesporQ. Laci
  6. 38′Goal · Çorum FKC. Ünder
  7. 46′Substitution · Çorum FKY. Ramadani on · M. Diomande off
  8. 61′Substitution · RizesporE. Bulut on · V. Mihăilă off
  9. 72′Substitution · Çorum FKY. Moukoko on · J. Ramírez off
  10. 76′Substitution · RizesporM. Diakité on · I. Olawoyin off
  11. 76′Substitution · RizesporI. Doicaru on · A. Mebude off
  12. 76′Substitution · RizesporG. Borrelli on · A. Sowe off
  13. 78′Substitution · Çorum FKE. Mahmić on · C. Ünder off
  14. 78′Substitution · Çorum FKM. Karlsbakk on · B. Ayberk Özdemir off
  15. 80′Goal · Çorum FKY. Moukoko · (assist A. Kyziridis)
  16. 81′Yellow card · RizesporM. Sagnan
  17. 83′Yellow card · Çorum FKG. Sazdağı
  18. 83′Substitution · RizesporD. Varešanović on · Q. Laci off
  19. 90+4′Yellow card · Çorum FKA. Sengul
  20. 90+4′Yellow card · RizesporM. Pala

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots5
  • 2Corners8
  • 0.71Expected goals (xG)0.84
  • 19Fouls12
  • 2Offsides0
  • 87%Pass accuracy84%
  • 453Passes425
  • 392Accurate passes356
  • 51%Possession49%
  • 3Saves2
  • 10Shots16
  • 3Shots off target7
  • 4Shots on target4
  • 3Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Çorum FK
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Penetra906.900––1
A. Kyziridis906.901230
Ç. Söyüncü907.700––2
G. Sazdağı906.300––3
H. Smolčić907.900––3
M. Felipe907.200––0
B. Ayberk Özdemir787.200–14
C. Ünder788.010110
J. Ramírez726.9002–1
A. Sengul646.700–13
M. Diomande456.600–10
Y. Ramadani457.300––4
A. Borza266.5001–1
Y. Moukoko187.3101–1
E. Mahmić126.700––1
M. Karlsbakk126.200––0
Rizespor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
M. Pala907.200––3
M. Sagnan906.3001–2
S. Bakayoko906.600112
T. Antalyalı907.2001–3
Y. Fofana905.900––0
Z. Ariss906.200–12
Q. Laci837.910522
A. Mebude766.900––1
A. Sowe766.200––0
I. Olawoyin766.500–13
V. Mihăilă616.300130
E. Bulut297.300110
G. Borrelli146.300–10
I. Doicaru146.700–10
M. Diakité146.7001–0
D. Varešanović116.900––0

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Rizespor4-1-4-1

  1. 75Y. Fofana5.9
  1. 54M. Pala7.2
  2. 21S. Bakayoko6.6
  3. 93M. Sagnan6.3
  4. 17Z. Ariss6.2
  1. 14T. Antalyalı (c)7.2
  1. 11A. Mebude6.9
  2. 10I. Olawoyin6.5
  3. 20Q. Laci7.9
  4. 7V. Mihăilă6.3
  1. 9A. Sowe6.2
  1. 89A. Kyziridis6.9
  2. 19J. Ramírez6.9
  3. 7C. Ünder8.0
  1. 24A. Borza6.5
  2. 10M. Diomande6.6
  3. 3B. Ayberk Özdemir7.2
  4. 11G. Sazdağı (c)6.3
  1. 6H. Smolčić7.9
  2. 2Ç. Söyüncü7.7
  3. 5A. Penetra6.9
  1. 1M. Felipe7.2

Çorum FK3-4-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Çorum FK · Bench

Coach: Tamer Sivrikaya

Rizespor · Bench

Coach: Recep Ucar

Key players

Çorum FKavailable

  1. M. Felipe · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Borza · Midfielder623 min in 7 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. H. Smolčić · Defender608 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Rizesporavailable

  1. M. Pala · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. Y. Fofana · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Sagnan · Defender628 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Çorum FK the most probability, 38.8 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Çorum FK · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Çorum FK · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Çorum FK · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Çorum FK -3.0, draw +1.2, Rizespor +1.8 points (early pre-match).
    4 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), matches in the fit (330 → 1,013), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (3 Sept 2025 → 4 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,013 → 1,011), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,011 → 1,007), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,007 → 1,003), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: Çorum FK. Version 5 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 60.2%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.508, Brier 0.238 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Çorum FK59.0
Rizespor52.7
Çorum FK — 59.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 70% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 51% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Rizespor — 52.795% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 59% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 16 Oct, 17:35 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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