Skip to content
← ScoresTimes: UK time

Primeira Liga· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Casa Pia v Santa Clara

Casa Pia
0–1FT · HT 0–0
Santa ClaraVasconcelos 90′
Where to watch

· Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: I. Vasilica
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior
  • Referee: I. Vasilica
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Santa Clara⁩ win. The model gave it 41.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.206 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.85 – 1.13⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.43 – 0.61⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–1⁩ 15.7%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 13.8%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.2%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.9%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 8.8%

⁦0–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 09 Oct, 21:15 UK time, 23 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 8 Oct on 917 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:30Kick-off
  2. 18′Yellow card · Santa ClaraJ. Tavares
  3. 50′VAR · Casa Pia · Card upgraded to redD. Sousa
  4. 52′Red card · Casa PiaD. Sousa
  5. 54′Substitution · Casa PiaF. Silva on · H. Araújo off
  6. 57′Substitution · Santa ClaraVasconcelos on · J. Tavares off
  7. 68′Yellow card · Santa ClaraE. Fernandes
  8. 70′Substitution · Santa ClaraVitinho on · V. Lopes off
  9. 70′Substitution · Santa ClaraL. Fernando on · T. Ribeiro off
  10. 72′Substitution · Casa PiaJ. Goulart on · P. Rosas off
  11. 72′Substitution · Casa PiaG. Pereira on · L. Ofori off
  12. 77′Substitution · Santa ClaraH. Silva on · E. Fernandes off
  13. 77′Substitution · Santa ClaraL. Jaco on · Brenner off
  14. 79′Substitution · Casa PiaE. Maurin on · B. Pauwels off
  15. 79′Substitution · Casa PiaA. Zouin on · M. Salah off
  16. 83′Yellow card · Casa PiaG. Pereira
  17. 90+5′Yellow card · Casa PiaA. Geraldes
  18. 90+7′Yellow card · Santa ClaraG. Paciência
  19. 90+7′Yellow card · Santa ClaraP. Ferreira
  20. 90+3′Yellow card · Santa ClaraVasconcelos
  21. 90′Goal · Santa ClaraVasconcelos · (assist L. Soares)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 1Blocked shots8
  • 3Corners7
  • 0.43Expected goals (xG)0.61
  • 17Fouls13
  • 2Offsides2
  • 72%Pass accuracy83%
  • 317Passes498
  • 227Accurate passes413
  • 38%Possession62%
  • 1Red cards0
  • 1Saves2
  • 5Shots14
  • 2Shots off target4
  • 2Shots on target2
  • 3Yellow cards5

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Casa Pia
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Geraldes906.300000
D. Jose Gabriel Bandeira907.500003
I. Mandić905.600000
J. Rêgo907.500107
S. Clúa907.300001
B. Pauwels806.900001
M. Salah796.600101
P. Rosas736.900101
L. Ofori726.900002
H. Araújo546.500010
D. Sousa525.900010
F. Silva366.300000
G. Pereira186.300100
J. Goulart176.300000
A. Zouin116.200000
E. Maurin106.200000
Santa Clara
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
G. Paciência906.900321
G. Romão907.500102
L. França906.900000
L. Soares907.301012
P. Ferreira907.000125
P. Pacheco907.500000
Brenner776.900002
E. Fernandes776.600000
T. Ribeiro706.600020
V. Lopes706.700021
J. Tavares576.200002
Vasconcelos337.910220
L. Fernando206.900310
Vitinho206.900013
H. Silva136.900200
L. Jaco136.700000

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Santa Clara4-3-3

  1. 1L. França6.9
  1. 42L. Soares7.3
  2. 4P. Pacheco7.5
  3. 21E. Fernandes6.6
  4. 5G. Romão7.5
  1. 8J. Tavares6.2
  2. 6P. Ferreira7.0
  3. 20T. Ribeiro6.6
  1. 70V. Lopes6.7
  2. 9G. Paciência (c)6.9
  3. 10Brenner6.9
  1. 9H. Araújo6.5
  1. 77B. Pauwels6.9
  2. 70J. Rêgo7.5
  3. 11M. Salah6.6
  1. 80L. Ofori6.9
  2. 16S. Clúa7.3
  1. 75P. Rosas6.9
  2. 43D. Sousa5.9
  3. 3D. Jose Gabriel Bandeira7.5
  4. 18A. Geraldes (c)6.3
  1. 95I. Mandić5.6

Casa Pia4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Casa Pia · Bench

Coach: Filipe Coelho

Santa Clara · Bench

Coach: Petit

Key players

Casa Piaavailable

  1. L. Ofori · Midfielder630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. A. Geraldes · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. D. Sousa · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Santa Claraavailable

  1. P. Pacheco · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. G. Romão · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. L. França · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Primeira Liga 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Santa Clara the most probability, 11.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Santa Clara · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Santa Clara · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Casa Pia · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Casa Pia +17.2, draw +6.7, Santa Clara -23.9 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (2 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (343 → 917), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (28 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Santa Clara. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 42.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.868, Brier 0.505 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Casa Pia23.4
Santa Clara75.7
Casa Pia — 23.495% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 19 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 49% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Santa Clara — 75.795% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 19 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 09 Oct, 21:15 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.