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Picked from 31 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar

FeyenoordN. Ferri 13′ · J. López 59′
2–0FT · HT 1–0
AZ Alkmaar
Where to watch

· Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Danny Makkelie
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam
  • Referee: Danny Makkelie
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Feyenoord⁩ win. The model gave it 54.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.129 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.01 – 1.24⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.30 – 0.77⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.9%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 6.6%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 6.5%

⁦2–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 09 Oct, 21:15 UK time, 20 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 8 Oct on 920 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:45Kick-off
  2. 11′Yellow card · AZ AlkmaarL. Schouten
  3. 13′Goal · FeyenoordN. Ferri
  4. 23′Yellow card · AZ AlkmaarR. Daal
  5. 43′VAR · AZ Alkmaar · Penalty cancelledM. Meerdink
  6. 45+2′Yellow card · FeyenoordO. Targhalline
  7. 59′Goal · FeyenoordJ. López · (assist C. Vanhoutte)
  8. 67′Yellow card · AZ AlkmaarW. Goes
Substitutions (5)
  1. 68′Substitution · AZ AlkmaarD. Kasius on · E. Dijkstra off
  2. 68′Substitution · AZ AlkmaarW. Patati on · R. Daal off
  3. 77′Substitution · FeyenoordT. van den Elshout on · G. Zechiël off
  4. 80′Substitution · AZ AlkmaarB. Kovacs on · J. Clasie off
  5. 89′Substitution · FeyenoordG. Diarra on · N. Ferri off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 43%Possession57%
  • 2.30Expected goals (xG)0.77

Attack

  • 15Shots12
  • 4Shots on target2
  • 8Shots off target6
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 7Corners6
  • 0Offsides3
  • 2Saves2

Passing

  • 372Passes504
  • 297Accurate passes418
  • 80%Pass accuracy83%

Discipline

  • 12Fouls15
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Feyenoord
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Hadj Moussa906.300302
C. Vanhoutte907.701036
G. Read906.900014
J. López907.410101
J. St Juste906.900102
L. Valente906.500222
M. Mármol907.100003
O. Targhalline906.600221
T. Ernst906.700000
N. Ferri897.410202
G. Zechiël776.300100
T. van den Elshout136.200300
G. Diarra16.400000
AZ Alkmaar
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Oufkir906.600212
C. Stengs906.200100
J. De Busser906.400000
L. Schouten906.600015
M. Chávez905.800115
M. Meerdink906.000100
P. Koopmeiners906.900315
W. Goes906.800113
J. Clasie806.300011
E. Dijkstra686.300003
R. Daal685.100014
D. Kasius226.100000
W. Patati226.600120
B. Kovacs107.000210

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

AZ Alkmaar4-2-3-1

  1. 28De Busser6.4
  1. 22DijkstraOff 68′6.3
  2. 3GoesBooked 67′6.8
  3. 4SchoutenBooked 11′6.6
  4. 5Chávez5.8
  1. 8ClasieOff 80′6.3
  2. 6Koopmeiners6.9
  1. 24Oufkir6.6
  2. 14Stengs6.2
  3. 11DaalBooked 23′ · Off 68′5.1
  1. 9Meerdink6.0
  1. 10Valente6.5
  2. 19FerriGoal 13′ · Off 89′7.4
  3. 23Hadj Moussa6.3
  1. 28TarghallineBooked 45+2′6.6
  2. 34Vanhoutte7.7
  3. 8ZechiëlOff 77′6.3
  1. 16LópezGoal 59′7.4
  2. 35Mármol7.1
  3. 6St Juste6.9
  4. 26Read6.9
  1. 1Ernst6.7

Feyenoord4-3-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Feyenoord · Bench

Coach: Giovanni van Bronckhorst

AZ Alkmaar · Bench

Coach: Leeroy Echteld

Key players

Feyenoordavailable

  1. T. Ernst · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. L. Valente · Forward601 min in 7 matches · 4 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Mármol · Defender601 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

AZ Alkmaaravailable

  1. L. Schouten · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. W. Goes · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. J. De Busser · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Feyenoord the most probability, 30.2 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Feyenoord · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Feyenoord · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Feyenoord · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Feyenoord +6.0, draw -2.9, AZ Alkmaar -3.1 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (2 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (344 → 920), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (28 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Feyenoord. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 54.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.614, Brier 0.316 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Feyenoord90.1
AZ Alkmaar83.6
Feyenoord — 90.195% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI less 1 reported out, by their ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 20 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

AZ Alkmaar — 83.695% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 79% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 64% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 20 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 62% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 09 Oct, 21:15 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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