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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Göztepe v Başakşehir

GöztepeJ. Santos da Silva 18′
1–2FT · HT 1–1
BaşakşehirD. Selke 22′ · E. Višća 83′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: C. Altay
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: C. Altay
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Başakşehir⁩ win. The model gave it 32.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.323 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.69 – 1.44⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.54 – 1.40⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 6.6%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 6.5%

⁦1–2⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 07 Nov, 15:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 6 Nov on 1,019 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 16:00Kick-off
  2. 18′Goal · GöztepeJ. Santos da Silva
  3. 22′Goal · BaşakşehirD. Selke · (assist I. Brnić)
  4. 40′Yellow card · BaşakşehirO. Ba
  5. 49′Yellow card · GöztepeA. Antunes
  6. 66′Substitution · GöztepeA. Henrique on · Janderson off
  7. 66′Substitution · BaşakşehirE. Višća on · I. Brnić off
  8. 66′Substitution · BaşakşehirB. Yıldırım on · D. Selke off
  9. 78′Substitution · BaşakşehirO. Bulut on · Ö. Ali Şahiner off
  10. 78′Substitution · BaşakşehirO. Ergün on · J. Kałuziński off
  11. 79′Yellow card · GöztepeM. Bokele
  12. 82′Substitution · GöztepeF. Anjorin on · A. Antunes off
  13. 82′Substitution · GöztepeA. Matos on · A. Kurtulan off
  14. 82′Substitution · GöztepeS. Armstrong on · J. Santos da Silva off
  15. 83′Goal · BaşakşehirE. Višća · (assist O. Bulut)
  16. 86′Substitution · BaşakşehirJ. Opoku on · E. Shomurodov off
  17. 88′Substitution · GöztepeB. Böke on · Allan off
  18. 90+2′Yellow card · BaşakşehirD. Dilmen

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 6Blocked shots4
  • 7Corners7
  • 1.54Expected goals (xG)1.40
  • 14Fouls8
  • 3Offsides1
  • 72%Pass accuracy69%
  • 348Passes337
  • 249Accurate passes233
  • 51%Possession49%
  • 3Saves3
  • 19Shots15
  • 9Shots off target6
  • 4Shots on target5
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Göztepe
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Özçimen906.700––0
M. Bokele906.6001–1
N. Miroshi906.900211
Rhaldney907.300222
R. Akonnor906.700–21
T. Altıkardeş906.6001–1
Allan885.900––0
A. Antunes827.0003–1
A. Kurtulan827.200–41
J. Santos da Silva827.610311
Janderson666.700–10
A. Henrique246.500––0
A. Matos86.500–10
F. Anjorin86.2001–1
S. Armstrong86.500––0
B. Böke2–00––0
Başakşehir
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Skov Olsen907.200–32
D. Dilmen907.300––0
E. Bayram907.6001–4
M. Karbownik906.9001–2
O. Kemen906.5001–1
O. Ba907.0001–3
E. Shomurodov866.900210
J. Kałuziński787.300–40
Ö. Ali Şahiner786.2001–0
D. Selke678.310110
I. Brnić667.201220
E. Višća247.6101–0
B. Yıldırım236.900––1
O. Bulut127.601–13
O. Ergün126.900––0
J. Opoku87.200––0

xG (Highlightly) available

Göztepe
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Henrique0.200.00–
A. Antunes0.190.050.11
M. Bokele0.110.010.79
Janderson0.100.01–
Rhaldney0.090.27–
N. Miroshi0.050.07–
T. Altıkardeş0.030.010.05
Allan–0.00–
A. Kurtulan–0.12–
A. Özçimen–0.01–
R. Akonnor–0.21–
Başakşehir
PlayerxGxAxGOT
E. Višća0.360.010.23
D. Selke0.300.020.82
E. Shomurodov0.250.120.68
I. Brnić0.160.270.20
E. Bayram0.110.00–
O. Kemen0.110.02–
M. Karbownik0.030.040.13
O. Ba0.020.00–
Ö. Ali Şahiner0.000.00–
A. Skov Olsen–0.29–
B. Yıldırım–0.00–
D. Dilmen–0.00–
J. Kałuziński–0.20–
O. Bulut–0.20–
O. Ergün–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Başakşehir4-2-3-1

  1. 98D. Dilmen7.3
  1. 42Ö. Ali Şahiner (c)6.2
  2. 23E. Bayram7.6
  3. 27O. Ba7.0
  4. 33M. Karbownik6.9
  1. 8O. Kemen6.5
  2. 18J. Kałuziński7.3
  1. 70A. Skov Olsen7.2
  2. 14E. Shomurodov6.9
  3. 77I. Brnić7.2
  1. 9D. Selke8.3
  1. 39Janderson6.7
  2. 9J. Santos da Silva7.6
  1. 8A. Antunes7.0
  1. 12R. Akonnor6.7
  2. 20N. Miroshi6.9
  3. 5Rhaldney7.3
  4. 2A. Kurtulan7.2
  1. 26M. Bokele (c)6.6
  2. 3Allan5.9
  3. 4T. Altıkardeş6.6
  1. 1A. Özçimen6.7

Göztepe3-4-1-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Göztepe · Bench

Coach: Stanimir Stoilov

Başakşehir · Bench

Coach: Nuri Sahin

Key players

Göztepeavailable

  1. T. Altıkardeş · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Kurtulan · Midfielder899 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. M. Bokele · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Başakşehiravailable

  1. E. Bayram · Defender866 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. E. Shomurodov · Midfielder843 min in 10 matches · 8 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. O. Kemen · Midfielder834 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Göztepe the most probability, 10.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Göztepe · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Başakşehir · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Başakşehir · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,011 → 1,009), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Göztepe +2.5, draw +0.5, Başakşehir -3.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,009 → 1,015), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Göztepe +1.5, draw -0.5, Başakşehir -1.0 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 6 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,015 → 1,019), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 2 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Başakşehir. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 32.0%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.139, Brier 0.709 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Göztepe64.4
Başakşehir60.9
Göztepe — 64.495% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 64% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 64% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 79% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Başakşehir — 60.995% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 69% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 54% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 07 Nov, 15:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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