Skip to content

Moments that matter

8 live

Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
1 more
← ScoresTimes: UK time

UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 1

Brann v Lincoln Red Imps

BrannN. Castro 64′, 81′
2–1FT · HT 0–0
Lincoln Red ImpsK. Gómez 59′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: D. Cerny
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: D. Cerny
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Brann⁩ win. The model gave it 75.2%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.034 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.42 – 0.70⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.38 – 0.84⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 13.0%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 7.8%

⁦2–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 15 Oct, 19:40 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 14 Oct on 15,577 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 6′Yellow card · BrannN. Kasanwirjo
  3. 23′Red card · BrannN. Kasanwirjo
  4. 56′Yellow card · Lincoln Red ImpsT. García
  5. 59′Goal · Lincoln Red ImpsK. Gómez · (assist Nano)
  6. 61′Yellow card · Lincoln Red ImpsT. García
  7. 61′Red card · Lincoln Red ImpsT. García
  8. 64′Goal · BrannN. Castro
  9. 66′Substitution · BrannJ. Torsvik on · T. Pedersen off
  10. 67′Substitution · Lincoln Red ImpsY. Flalhi Idrissi on · T. García off
  11. 67′Substitution · Lincoln Red ImpsManu on · K. Gómez off
  12. 71′Substitution · BrannN. Holm on · N. Wassberg off
  13. 73′Yellow card · BrannN. Castro
  14. 77′Substitution · Lincoln Red ImpsF. Álvarez on · Á. Romero Morillo off
  15. 81′Goal · BrannN. Castro · (assist J. Torsvik)
  16. 82′Substitution · BrannK. Eriksen on · N. Castro off
  17. 84′Substitution · Lincoln Red ImpsN. Pinto on · Mandi off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 5Blocked shots1
  • 17Corners2
  • 2.38Expected goals (xG)0.84
  • 12Fouls15
  • 6Offsides2
  • 84%Pass accuracy67%
  • 611Passes234
  • 516Accurate passes157
  • 72%Possession28%
  • 1Red cards1
  • 2Saves7
  • 19Shots7
  • 4Shots off target3
  • 10Shots on target3
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Brann
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Gudmundsson907.900–50
F. Knudsen906.9002–2
J. Sorensen907.200110
J. Soltvedt906.600241
K. Máni Ingason908.300211
S. Magnússon907.300111
S. Nilsen906.200––0
N. Castro829.220211
N. Wassberg717.200––2
T. Pedersen666.600––1
J. Torsvik247.001110
N. Kasanwirjo234.600––0
N. Holm196.700310
K. Eriksen86.900––1
Lincoln Red Imps
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Rutjens908.200––3
G. Torrilla906.900116
J. Hankins909.200––1
Joe906.500––0
J. Eersteling906.500––1
Nano907.3001–1
Mandi846.500––3
Á. Romero Morillo776.900110
K. Gómez677.3101–0
T. García676.500–12
M. Toledano237.2002–0
Y. Flalhi Idrissi236.600––0
F. Álvarez136.500–10
N. Pinto116.900––2

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Lincoln Red Imps5-3-2

  1. 13J. Hankins9.2
  1. 66J. Eersteling6.5
  2. 5T. Cardozo
  3. 23Joe6.5
  4. 3C. Rutjens8.2
  5. 21Nano7.3
  1. 18T. García6.5
  2. 22G. Torrilla (c)6.9
  3. 8Mandi6.5
  1. 9K. Gómez7.3
  2. 11Á. Romero Morillo6.9
  1. 9N. Castro9.2
  2. 22S. Magnússon7.3
  3. 25N. Wassberg7.2
  1. 19E. Gudmundsson7.9
  2. 18J. Sorensen7.2
  3. 10K. Máni Ingason8.3
  1. 17J. Soltvedt6.6
  2. 21N. Kasanwirjo4.6
  3. 3F. Knudsen (c)6.9
  4. 23T. Pedersen6.6
  1. 12S. Nilsen6.2

Brann4-3-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Brann · Bench

Coach: E. Horneland

Lincoln Red Imps · Bench

Coach: Juan Bezares

Key players

Brannlimited

  1. J. Soltvedt · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. K. Eriksen · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 1 goal · 0 assists
  3. D. De Roeve · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for 1 of 6 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Lincoln Red Impsnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Brann the most probability, 58.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Brann · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Brann · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Brann · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2 · Early pre-match: first available version.
    The early pre-match version reported no inputs, so nothing can be attributed.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,135 → 15,577), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 10 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: Brann. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 75.2%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.285, Brier 0.095 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.