Skip to content

Moments that matter

1 live

Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
1 more
← ScoresTimes: UK time

Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 12

Preston v West Brom

PrestonA. Hughes 78′
1–1FT · HT 0–0
West BromJ. Morgan 82′
Where to watch

· Deepdale, Preston

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Elliot Bell
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Deepdale, Preston
  • Referee: Elliot Bell
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 31.8%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.120 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.99 – 1.24⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.78 – 2.08⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 14.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 11.8%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 9.1%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 8.3%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 18 Oct, 15:05 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 17 Oct on 1,619 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 33′Yellow card · West BromH. Whitwell
  3. 45′Substitution · PrestonA. Moran on · A. Devine off
  4. 60′Substitution · West BromJ. Morgan on · H. Whitwell off
  5. 60′Substitution · West BromA. Selland Heggebø on · B. Stewart off
  6. 64′Yellow card · PrestonA. Moran
  7. 70′Substitution · PrestonC. Lang on · B. Potts off
  8. 70′Substitution · PrestonJ. Erabi on · J. Kenny off
  9. 78′Goal · PrestonA. Hughes · (assist L. Leroy)
  10. 82′Goal · West BromJ. Morgan · (assist A. Selland Heggebø)
  11. 85′Substitution · West BromK. Tunde on · F. Myhre off
  12. 88′Substitution · West BromR. Nzingoula on · O. Diakité off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 5Blocked shots11
  • 6Corners9
  • 1.78Expected goals (xG)2.08
  • 11Fouls7
  • 2Offsides1
  • 227Passes620
  • 132Accurate passes528
  • 28%Possession72%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Saves3
  • 19Shots21
  • 10Shots off target5
  • 4Shots on target5
  • 1Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Preston
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Hughes908.510106
A. Vukčević906.200032
D. Iversen906.700000
D. Burgzorg906.600352
J. Storey906.900100
L. Leroy907.101111
O. Offiah906.800002
S. Mills906.500111
B. Potts706.200111
J. Kenny706.300412
A. Devine457.200222
A. Moran456.800301
C. Lang206.400002
J. Erabi206.700200
West Brom
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Pereira906.700011
C. Styles907.400123
C. Mepham907.100100
G. Campbell906.900001
I. Price906.800520
J. Molumby907.200322
M. O'Leary906.500000
O. Diakité887.000201
F. Myhre856.900160
B. Stewart606.700111
H. Whitwell605.600110
A. Selland Heggebø308.001310
J. Morgan307.210231
K. Tunde56.600001
R. Nzingoula26.600100

xG (Highlightly) available

Preston
PlayerxGxAxGOT
D. Burgzorg0.410.530.08
A. Hughes0.360.110.97
J. Kenny0.320.040.36
J. Erabi0.260.00–
A. Moran0.250.09–
A. Devine0.050.03–
S. Mills0.050.03–
B. Potts0.040.03–
L. Leroy0.030.26–
J. Storey0.020.01–
A. Vukčević–0.25–
C. Lang–0.00–
D. Iversen–0.01–
O. Offiah–0.00–
West Brom
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Selland Heggebø0.500.010.73
F. Myhre0.400.150.45
I. Price0.380.190.62
J. Morgan0.250.09–
R. Nzingoula0.220.000.39
J. Molumby0.170.26–
O. Diakité0.120.04–
H. Whitwell0.100.03–
B. Stewart0.090.01–
C. Styles0.030.10–
C. Mepham0.010.00–
B. Pereira–0.18–
G. Campbell–0.00–
K. Tunde–0.00–
M. O'Leary–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

  1. 37D. Burgzorg6.6
  2. 38J. Kenny6.3
  1. 7A. Devine7.2
  1. 3A. Vukčević6.2
  2. 44B. Potts6.2
  3. 27L. Leroy7.1
  4. 17S. Mills6.5
  1. 16A. Hughes8.5
  2. 14J. Storey6.9
  3. 24O. Offiah6.8
  1. 1D. Iversen6.7

Preston3-4-1-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

West Brom

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Preston · Bench

Coach: Graham Alexander

West Brom · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Prestonavailable

  1. D. Iversen · Goalkeeper990 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Devine · Forward918 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. J. Thompson · Midfielder873 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

West Bromavailable

  1. C. Styles · Defender990 min in 11 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. O'Leary · Goalkeeper990 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. I. Price · Midfielder905 min in 11 matches · 4 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives West Brom the most probability, 8.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours West Brom · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours West Brom · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Preston · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 17 Oct 2026), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 13 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 31.8%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.146, Brier 0.706 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Preston10.8
West Brom51.8
Preston — 10.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 15% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 37% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

West Brom — 51.895% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 74% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 49% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 18 Oct, 15:05 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.