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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 3

Monaco v Nordsjælland

MonacoM. Detourbet 33′ · M. Abline 90′
2–0FT · HT 1–0
Nordsjælland
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Antoni Bandić
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: Antoni Bandić
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Monaco⁩ win. The model gave it 66.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.066 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.36 – 1.03⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.37 – 0.05⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 8.5%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 7.6%

⁦2–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 05 Nov, 19:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 4 Nov on 20,026 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 17′Yellow card · MonacoI. Toure
  3. 30′Yellow card · NordsjællandN. Markmann
  4. 33′Goal · MonacoM. Detourbet · (assist T. Minamino)
  5. 49′VAR · Monaco · Goal disallowedP. Brunner
  6. 52′VAR · Monaco · Goal disallowedT. Minamino
  7. 57′Substitution · MonacoVanderson on · I. Toure off
  8. 58′Substitution · MonacoS. Sané on · E. Dier off
  9. 58′Substitution · MonacoA. Golovin on · E. Diop off
  10. 61′Substitution · NordsjællandI. Adel on · V. Berthelsen off
  11. 61′Substitution · NordsjællandP. Amoako Junior on · L. Sadio off
  12. 66′Yellow card · NordsjællandV. Nelsson
  13. 70′Substitution · MonacoM. Coulibaly on · P. Brunner off
  14. 70′Substitution · NordsjællandR. Robinsonn Norheim on · M. Walker off
  15. 70′Substitution · NordsjællandH. Rasmussen on · O. Solbakken off
  16. 78′Substitution · MonacoM. Abline on · F. Balogun off
  17. 86′Substitution · NordsjællandN. Røjkjær on · M. Heyde off
  18. 90′Goal · MonacoM. Abline · (assist M. Detourbet)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 2Blocked shots1
  • 4Corners3
  • 2.37Expected goals (xG)0.05
  • 6Fouls7
  • 5Offsides1
  • 94%Pass accuracy88%
  • 757Passes559
  • 708Accurate passes493
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 1Saves3
  • 11Shots3
  • 4Shots off target1
  • 5Shots on target1
  • 1Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Monaco
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Mawissa906.900––2
J. Teze907.700–10
L. Hrádecký906.900––0
M. Detourbet907.611110
T. Minamino906.901210
V. Seabra907.500–22
F. Balogun785.9002–0
P. Brunner706.600––0
E. Diop587.200––1
E. Dier587.200––0
I. Toure577.300––3
Vanderson337.200–12
A. Golovin326.900–11
S. Sané327.300––1
M. Coulibaly206.700110
M. Abline127.6103–0
Nordsjælland
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Hansen906.900––0
J. Lähteenmäki906.600––2
M. Brink906.300–10
N. Markmann906.2001–0
T. Salquist906.600––1
V. Nelsson907.000––1
M. Heyde866.600––2
M. Walker706.600––3
O. Solbakken706.200––1
L. Sadio616.300––1
V. Berthelsen616.600––1
I. Adel296.7001–0
P. Amoako Junior296.300––2
H. Boe Rasmussen206.500––0
R. Robinsonn Norheim206.700––1
N. Røjkjær86.300––0

xG (Highlightly)limited

Monaco
PlayerxGxAxGOT
I. Toure0.830.040.99
M. Detourbet0.830.040.99
F. Balogun0.660.000.20
M. Abline0.600.000.92
T. Minamino0.160.040.21
P. Brunner0.070.01–
M. Coulibaly0.050.01–
A. Golovin–0.12–
C. Mawissa–0.02–
E. Diop–0.03–
E. Dier–0.02–
J. Teze–0.26–
L. Hrádecký–0.00–
S. Sané–0.02–
Vanderson–0.20–
Nordsjælland
PlayerxGxAxGOT
I. Adel0.020.01–
N. Markmann0.020.030.03
V. Nelsson0.010.01–
A. Hansen–0.00–
H. Boe Rasmussen–0.00–
J. Lähteenmäki–0.01–
L. Sadio–0.02–
M. Heyde–0.03–
M. Brink–0.01–
M. Walker–0.01–
N. Røjkjær–0.01–
O. Solbakken–0.01–
P. Amoako Junior–0.00–
R. Robinsonn Norheim–0.00–
T. Salquist–0.01–
V. Berthelsen–0.01–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 2 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Nordsjælland3-4-3

  1. 13A. Hansen6.9
  1. 25V. Nelsson7.0
  2. 3T. Salquist (c)6.6
  3. 4N. Markmann6.2
  1. 28M. Walker6.6
  2. 21M. Heyde6.6
  3. 6M. Brink6.3
  4. 5J. Lähteenmäki6.6
  1. 9O. Solbakken6.2
  2. 37L. Sadio6.3
  3. 29V. Berthelsen6.6
  1. 29P. Brunner6.6
  2. 9F. Balogun5.9
  1. 7M. Detourbet7.6
  2. 37E. Diop7.2
  3. 6V. Seabra (c)7.5
  4. 18T. Minamino6.9
  1. 13C. Mawissa6.9
  2. 15E. Dier7.2
  3. 4J. Teze7.7
  4. 49I. Toure7.3
  1. 1L. Hrádecký6.9

Monaco4-4-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Monaco · Bench

Coach: Luis Filipe

Nordsjælland · Bench

Coach: Jens Olsen

Key players

Monacoavailable

  1. L. Hrádecký · Goalkeeper360 min in 4 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. S. Sané · Defender360 min in 4 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. P. Brunner · Forward350 min in 4 matches · 4 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 4 matches played.

Nordsjællandavailable

  1. A. Hansen · Goalkeeper724 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. J. Lähteenmäki · Midfielder659 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 2 assists
  3. J. Janssen · Midfielder625 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Monaco the most probability, 48.0 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Monaco · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Monaco · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Monaco · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Monaco +1.9, draw -0.8, Nordsjælland -1.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (28 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (20,022 → 19,937), history from (24 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Monaco -0.5, draw +0.2, Nordsjælland +0.3 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 4 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,937 → 20,026), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 31 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Monaco. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 66.7%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.405, Brier 0.167 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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