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FA Cup· 2026/27

Harrogate Town v Bury

Harrogate Town
3–1FT · HT 1–0
Bury
Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • CNG Stadium, Harrogate
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Harrogate Town 27.7% · happenedDraw 24.1%Bury 48.2%

The model gave what happened 27.7% before kick-off. A forecast is a share, not a promise: what matters is whether calls like this come true at the rate they claim. The model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.31 – 1.78⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦3 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.1%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 7.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 6.9%

⁦3–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · 27.7% · 24.1% · 48.2%

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v1 computed 18 Oct, 08:10 UK time, 59 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 17 Oct on 15,648 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

What was forecast, and what happened

Statistical model

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0v1computed

Result: ⁨Harrogate Town⁩ win. The model gave it 27.7%.

0.377ranked probability score for this match · 0 is perfect

One match says little: the model's record

Founder’s analysis

The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Three separate products. Each has its own source, method and record; none is blended with or relabelled as another.

Key eventsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 0Blocked shots0
  • 7Corners7
  • 57%Possession43%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 22Shots6
  • 15Shots off target1
  • 7Shots on target5
  • 2Yellow cards0

Expected goals (xG): not available for this match.not supplied

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-upsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Key players

Harrogate Townnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Burynot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in FA Cup 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

Model forecastlimited

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

Harrogate Town 27.7%Draw 24.1%Bury 48.2%

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0v1computed

The model gives Bury the most probability, 20.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

  • Expected goals 1.31 – 1.78
  • Most likely scorelines: ⁦1–1⁩ (11.1%), ⁦1–2⁩ (9.4%), ⁦0–1⁩ (7.7%)

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Bury · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Bury · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Harrogate Town · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

Version 1 · Early pre-match · computed · model dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · data limited

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–1: Harrogate Town. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 27.7%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.283, Brier 0.813 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Founder’s analysis

Founder’s analysis

The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Your prediction Locked at kick-off

Sign in to predict this match. Predictions need a verified account and lock at kick-off.

Your pick counts towards the community picks only; it is never blended with the statistical model or the founder’s analysis.

Community forecast

Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Three separate products. Each has its own source, method and record; none is blended with or relabelled as another.

Analysis from approved contributors

Written by members the platform approved. Not the founder’s analysis, not the statistical model, and not the community consensus.

No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Where to watch

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Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.