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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 4

Rennes v Olympiacos

Rennes
0–0FT · HT 0–0
Olympiacos
Where to watch

· Roazhon Park, Rennes

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Igor Pajac
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Roazhon Park, Rennes
  • Referee: Igor Pajac
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 26.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.156 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.58 – 0.98⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.61 – 1.03⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.8%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.5%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.2%

⁦0–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 04 Nov, 15:02 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 3 Nov on 20,032 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:30Kick-off
  2. 45′Substitution · OlympiacosM. Pedersen on · M. Saliakas off
  3. 59′Substitution · OlympiacosR. Yaremchuk on · A. González off
  4. 59′Substitution · OlympiacosG. Martins on · L. Bailey off
  5. 60′Substitution · RennesV. Rongier on · S. Szymański off
  6. 79′Substitution · OlympiacosChiquinho on · G. Sá off
  7. 80′Substitution · RennesL. Blas on · M. Tamari off
  8. 81′Substitution · RennesE. Mayenda on · B. Dia off
  9. 81′Substitution · RennesD. Cissé on · A. Thomasson off
  10. 82′Substitution · OlympiacosN. Tiknizyan on · O. Bruno off
  11. 88′Yellow card · RennesV. Rongier

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 1Blocked shots1
  • 3Corners3
  • 0.61Expected goals (xG)1.03
  • 15Fouls11
  • 4Offsides0
  • 426Passes594
  • 344Accurate passes503
  • 42%Possession58%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves4
  • 9Shots12
  • 4Shots off target8
  • 4Shots on target3
  • 1Yellow cards0

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Rennes
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Rouault906.800114
B. Samba907.200000
B. Reynolds906.800110
C. Cresswell907.400101
G. Oliveira907.000001
M. Nagida906.900013
M. Camara906.600001
A. Thomasson816.400013
B. Dia816.400001
M. Tamari806.700300
S. Szymański607.000130
V. Rongier306.400200
L. Blas106.500000
D. Cissé96.200000
E. Mayenda96.500000
Olympiacos
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Carmo906.800002
G. Puerta906.600202
K. Fortounis906.900250
P. Retsos907.300103
S. Hezze907.200025
S. Ortega907.700000
O. Bruno826.900003
G. Sá796.600123
A. González596.300111
L. Bailey596.400100
M. Saliakas457.100103
M. Pedersen456.600001
G. Martins316.100202
R. Yaremchuk316.200100
Chiquinho116.700000
N. Tiknizyan86.500000

xG (Highlightly) available

Rennes
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Tamari0.170.090.33
V. Rongier0.150.010.62
A. Rouault0.060.01–
C. Cresswell0.040.000.53
S. Szymański0.040.15–
B. Reynolds0.020.03–
A. Thomasson–0.01–
B. Dia–0.12–
B. Samba–0.00–
D. Cissé–0.00–
G. Oliveira–0.01–
L. Blas–0.02–
M. Nagida–0.08–
M. Camara–0.02–
Olympiacos
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. González0.220.02–
G. Martins0.180.000.52
G. Puerta0.120.05–
P. Retsos0.110.00–
R. Yaremchuk0.070.00–
K. Fortounis0.060.69–
M. Saliakas0.060.03–
L. Bailey0.040.010.15
G. Sá0.020.03–
Chiquinho–0.00–
D. Carmo–0.02–
M. Pedersen–0.00–
N. Tiknizyan–0.00–
O. Bruno–0.02–
S. Hezze–0.12–
S. Ortega–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Olympiacos4-2-3-1

  1. 1S. Ortega7.7
  1. 2M. Saliakas7.1
  2. 45P. Retsos7.3
  3. 6D. Carmo6.8
  4. 70O. Bruno6.9
  1. 15G. Puerta6.6
  2. 32S. Hezze7.2
  1. 17L. Bailey6.4
  2. 8G. Sá6.6
  3. 7K. Fortounis6.9
  1. 34A. González6.3
  1. 22B. Dia6.4
  2. 11M. Tamari6.7
  1. 45M. Camara6.6
  2. 28A. Thomasson6.4
  3. 17S. Szymański7.0
  1. 18M. Nagida6.9
  2. 5G. Oliveira7.0
  3. 4C. Cresswell7.4
  4. 24A. Rouault6.8
  5. 14B. Reynolds6.8
  1. 30B. Samba7.2

Rennes5-3-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Rennes · Bench

Coach: Franck Haise

Olympiacos · Bench

Coach: Imanol Alguacil

Key players

Rennesavailable

  1. M. Nagida · Defender270 min in 3 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. B. Samba · Goalkeeper270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. C. Cresswell · Defender270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 3 matches played.

Olympiacosavailable

  1. G. Martins · Midfielder273 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. L. Pirola · Defender273 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. P. Retsos · Defender273 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 3 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Rennes the most probability, 25.0 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Rennes · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Rennes · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Rennes · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Rennes +0.5, draw 0.0, Olympiacos -0.5 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (28 Oct 2026 → 30 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,022 → 19,998), history from (24 Oct 2023 → 26 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (19,998 → 19,987), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Rennes +1.2, draw -0.3, Olympiacos -0.9 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 3 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,987 → 20,032), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 30 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–0: a draw. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 26.1%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.344, Brier 0.859 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.