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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Marseille v Olympiacos

Marseille
0–1FT · HT 0–1
OlympiacosS. Hezze 42′
Where to watch

· Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Michael Oliver
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
  • Referee: Michael Oliver
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Olympiacos⁩ win. The model gave it 18.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.495 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.79 – 0.92⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.90 – 0.63⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.4%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 7.0%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v5 computed 15 Oct, 19:55 UK time, 4 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 14 Oct on 15,577 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 36′Yellow card · MarseilleK. Abdallah
  3. 42′Goal · OlympiacosS. Hezze · (assist Chiquinho)
  4. 43′Yellow card · OlympiacosP. Retsos
  5. 60′Yellow card · OlympiacosO. Bruno
  6. 62′Substitution · MarseilleA. Harit on · T. Nnadi off
  7. 62′Substitution · MarseilleA. Gouiri on · N. Maupay off
  8. 62′Substitution · MarseilleU. Garcia on · Emerson off
  9. 67′Substitution · OlympiacosR. Freuler on · G. Puerta off
  10. 67′Substitution · OlympiacosA. González on · R. Yaremchuk off
  11. 72′Substitution · OlympiacosK. Fortounis on · J. Silva off
  12. 73′Substitution · OlympiacosN. Tiknizyan on · O. Bruno off
  13. 75′Substitution · MarseilleF. Moumbagna on · A. Gomes off
  14. 77′Yellow card · MarseilleB. Meité
  15. 80′Substitution · MarseilleG. Kondogbia on · K. Abdallah off
  16. 82′Substitution · OlympiacosG. Sá on · Chiquinho off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 4Blocked shots4
  • 9Corners1
  • 0.90Expected goals (xG)0.63
  • 15Fouls11
  • 3Offsides3
  • 532Passes426
  • 458Accurate passes348
  • 56%Possession44%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves5
  • 11Shots9
  • 2Shots off target1
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Marseille
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Meité906.500102
H. Abdelli906.600013
I. Paixão907.200432
J. de Lange906.900000
N. Aguerd906.700000
T. Weah906.700114
K. Abdallah806.200310
A. Gomes756.900021
Emerson626.300001
N. Maupay626.100000
T. Nnadi626.500011
A. Gouiri286.200000
A. Harit285.900200
U. Garcia287.000001
F. Moumbagna155.800000
G. Kondogbia106.100000
Olympiacos
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
G. Martins906.600121
L. Pirola907.300001
M. Saliakas906.500002
P. Retsos906.600022
S. Hezze908.210202
S. Ortega907.900000
Chiquinho827.301110
O. Bruno736.300011
J. Silva726.300302
G. Puerta676.500000
R. Yaremchuk676.400010
A. González236.800200
R. Freuler236.700000
K. Fortounis186.100000
N. Tiknizyan176.300000
G. Sá86.900001

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Olympiacos4-2-3-1

  1. 1S. Ortega7.9
  1. 2M. Saliakas6.5
  2. 45P. Retsos6.6
  3. 5L. Pirola7.3
  4. 70O. Bruno6.3
  1. 15G. Puerta6.5
  2. 32S. Hezze8.2
  1. 10G. Martins6.6
  2. 22Chiquinho7.3
  3. 20J. Silva6.3
  1. 11R. Yaremchuk6.4
  1. 11N. Maupay6.1
  1. 14I. Paixão7.2
  2. 7A. Gomes6.9
  3. 48K. Abdallah6.2
  1. 6T. Nnadi6.5
  2. 8H. Abdelli6.6
  1. 33Emerson6.3
  2. 21N. Aguerd6.7
  3. 18B. Meité6.5
  4. 22T. Weah6.7
  1. 12J. de Lange6.9

Marseille4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Marseille · Bench

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Olympiacos · Bench

Coach: Imanol Alguacil

Key players

Marseilleavailable

  1. H. Abdelli · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. A. Harit · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. C. Egan-Riley · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Olympiacosavailable

  1. R. Freuler · Midfielder93 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. G. Martins · Midfielder93 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. J. Silva · Midfielder93 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Marseille the most probability, 33.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Marseille · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Marseille · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Marseille · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2 · Early pre-match: first available version.
    The early pre-match version reported no inputs, so nothing can be attributed.
  3. v3 · Marseille -0.5, draw +0.3, Olympiacos +0.2 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,135 → 15,091), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Marseille +0.1, draw -0.1, Olympiacos 0.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,091 → 15,579), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · Marseille -0.3, draw +0.1, Olympiacos +0.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,579 → 15,577), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 10 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Olympiacos. Version 5 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 18.7%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.677, Brier 1.048 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.