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Copa del Rey· 2026/27 · Round of 128

Prat v Athletic Club

Prat
1–6FT · HT 1–3
Athletic ClubM. Sannadi 29′ · R. Navarro 31′ · N. Serrano 36′ · C. Mitogo 87′ · S. Sanchez 88′
Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Prat 17.6%Draw 21.6%Athletic Club 60.8% · happened

The model gave what happened 60.8% before kick-off. A forecast is a share, not a promise: what matters is whether calls like this come true at the rate they claim. The model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.00 – 2.03⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦1 – 6⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.1%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 10.0%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 6.7%

⁦1–6⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · 17.7% · 21.6% · 60.7%
  2. v2Early pre-match · 17.6% · 21.6% · 60.8%

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 26 Oct, 00:00 UK time, 3 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 25 Oct on 19,952 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

What was forecast, and what happened

Statistical model

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0v2computed

Result: ⁨Athletic Club⁩ win. The model gave it 60.8%.

0.092ranked probability score for this match · 0 is perfect

One match says little: the model's record

Founder’s analysis

The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Three separate products. Each has its own source, method and record; none is blended with or relabelled as another.

Key eventslimited

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 29′Goal · Athletic ClubM. Sannadi · (assist M. Jauregizar)
  3. 31′Goal · Athletic ClubR. Navarro · (assist M. Jauregizar)
  4. 36′Goal · Athletic ClubN. Serrano · (assist J. Areso)
  5. 57′Yellow card · Athletic ClubB. Prados Díaz
  6. 60′Substitution · Athletic ClubC. Mitogo on · B. Prados Díaz off
  7. 60′Substitution · Athletic ClubR. Jubere on · J. Louis-Jean off
  8. 79′Substitution · Athletic ClubB. Gerenabarrena on · A. Paredes off
  9. 86′Substitution · Athletic ClubS. Sanchez on · R. Navarro off
  10. 87′Goal · Athletic ClubC. Mitogo · (assist R. Jubere)
  11. 88′Goal · Athletic ClubS. Sanchez

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 1Blocked shots3
  • 1Corners7
  • 14Fouls11
  • 3Offsides2
  • 78%Pass accuracy89%
  • 272Passes567
  • 211Accurate passes502
  • 32%Possession68%
  • 6Saves1
  • 6Shots25
  • 4Shots off target10
  • 2Shots on target12
  • 1Yellow cards1

Expected goals (xG): not available for this match.not supplied

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Athletic Club
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Padilla906.600––0
A. Rego907.600––4
J. Areso907.201121
M. Jauregizar907.902251
N. Serrano909.010452
Y. Álvarez907.000––1
R. Navarro869.210370
A. Paredes796.300––0
B. Prados Díaz607.000––3
J. Louis-Jean606.6002–1
M. Sannadi606.7104–0
C. Mitogo307.7101–0
B. Gerenabarrena116.600––0
S. Sanchez77.710110

xG (Highlightly)limited

Athletic Club
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Sannadi1.800.021.49
R. Navarro0.600.810.71
N. Serrano0.230.740.43
M. Jauregizar0.130.570.09
J. Louis-Jean0.090.050.11
J. Areso0.080.050.12
A. Paredes–0.01–
A. Padilla–0.01–
A. Rego–0.26–
B. Gerenabarrena–0.01–
B. Prados Díaz–0.20–
Y. Álvarez–0.02–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 4 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-upsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Key players

Pratnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Athletic Clubavailable

No match of this competition played before this one, so no minutes to count yet.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Copa del Rey 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

Model forecastlimited

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

Prat 17.6%Draw 21.6%Athletic Club 60.8%

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0v2computed

The model gives Athletic Club the most probability, 39.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

  • Expected goals 1.00 – 2.03
  • Most likely scorelines: ⁦1–1⁩ (10.1%), ⁦1–2⁩ (10.0%), ⁦0–2⁩ (9.9%)

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Athletic Club · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Athletic Club · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Prat · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

Version 2 · Early pre-match · computed · model dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · data limited

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Prat -0.1, draw 0.0, Athletic Club +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (21 Oct 2026 → 25 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (19,965 → 19,952), history from (17 Oct 2023 → 21 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–6: Athletic Club. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 60.9%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.497, Brier 0.231 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Founder’s analysis

Founder’s analysis

The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Your prediction Locked at kick-off

Sign in to predict this match. Predictions need a verified account and lock at kick-off.

Your pick counts towards the community picks only; it is never blended with the statistical model or the founder’s analysis.

Community forecast

Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Three separate products. Each has its own source, method and record; none is blended with or relabelled as another.

Analysis from approved contributors

Written by members the platform approved. Not the founder’s analysis, not the statistical model, and not the community consensus.

No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Where to watch

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Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.