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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Gençlerbirliği v Alanyaspor

GençlerbirliğiO. Ülgün 1′ · F. Tongya 59′ · T. Gouveia 66′, 78′ · P. Mendes 68′
5–0FT · HT 1–0
Alanyaspor
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: F. Tokail
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: F. Tokail
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Gençlerbirliği⁩ win. The model gave it 32.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.288 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.03 – 1.08⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.96 – 0.51⁩
Goals
⁦5 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 14.4%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 12.9%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 12.1%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.5%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.3%

⁦5–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 02 Nov, 16:35 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 1 Nov on 1,015 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:00Kick-off
  2. 1′Goal · GençlerbirliğiO. Ülgün · (assist F. Tongya)
  3. 40′Yellow card · GençlerbirliğiP. Mendes
  4. 47′Yellow card · AlanyasporB. Özyurt
  5. 59′Yellow card · AlanyasporMaestro
  6. 59′Goal · GençlerbirliğiF. Tongya · (assist A. Malouda Traoré)
  7. 66′Goal · GençlerbirliğiT. Gouveia · (assist A. Malouda Traoré)
  8. 68′Goal · GençlerbirliğiP. Mendes · (assist F. Tongya)
  9. 78′Goal · GençlerbirliğiT. Gouveia · (assist İ. Can Eğribayat)
  10. 88′Yellow card · AlanyasporO. Ben Ali
Substitutions (10)
  1. 55′Substitution · AlanyasporI. Hagi on · G. Makouta off
  2. 55′Substitution · AlanyasporM. Elia on · I. Kaya off
  3. 62′Substitution · AlanyasporY. Özdemir on · B. Özyurt off
  4. 72′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiS. Uçan on · C. Niasse off
  5. 72′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiR. Luis on · A. Malouda Traoré off
  6. 74′Substitution · AlanyasporE. Keskin on · B. Ali Gezek off
  7. 74′Substitution · AlanyasporO. Ben Ali on · Bikoue off
  8. 80′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiV. Orakpo on · P. Mendes off
  9. 81′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiP. Martor on · T. Gouveia off
  10. 86′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiF. Ayaz Ozcan on · F. Tongya off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 41%Possession59%
  • 1.96Expected goals (xG)0.51

Attack

  • 12Shots9
  • 7Shots on target3
  • 3Shots off target5
  • 2Blocked shots1
  • 3Corners1
  • 1Offsides3
  • 3Saves2

Passing

  • 316Passes454
  • 240Accurate passes366
  • 76%Pass accuracy81%

Discipline

  • 15Fouls10
  • 1Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Gençlerbirliği
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Çelik906.300––2
İ. Can Eğribayat909.001–10
M. Baltacı907.500–11
O. Ülgün908.0101–2
T. Kelven906.900–10
Y. Aydar906.900––2
F. Tongya869.212130
P. Mendes817.710110
T. Gouveia819.2204–1
C. Niasse736.5001–1
A. Malouda Traoré727.502120
R. Luis186.900––0
S. Uçan176.600––0
P. Martor97.000––0
V. Orakpo96.2001–0
F. Ayaz Ozcan4–00––0
Alanyaspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
F. Aliti905.900111
F. Hadergjonaj906.700–21
Maestro906.3001–3
N. Lima905.900––2
P. Victor905.200––0
R. Pereira Duarte906.0001–0
B. Ali Gezek746.300––1
Bikoue747.2001–0
B. Özyurt626.700110
G. Makouta556.9002–0
I. Kaya556.600121
I. Hagi356.200––0
M. Elia356.300––0
Y. Özdemir286.200––0
E. Keskin166.700––1
O. Ben Ali166.500––0

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playerlimited

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Gençlerbirliği
PlayerxGxAxGOT
T. Gouveia1.000.061.36
P. Mendes0.420.390.53
V. Orakpo0.150.00–
C. Niasse0.140.01–
A. Malouda Traoré0.070.03–
O. Ülgün0.070.010.50
F. Tongya0.030.460.46
A. Çelik–0.00–
İ. Can Eğribayat–0.00–
M. Baltacı–0.00–
P. Martor–0.00–
R. Luis–0.03–
S. Uçan–0.01–
T. Kelven–0.02–
Y. Aydar–0.01–
Alanyaspor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
G. Makouta0.180.010.46
I. Kaya0.030.060.08
B. Özyurt0.020.01–
F. Aliti0.010.01–
Maestro0.010.01–
B. Ali Gezek–0.01–
E. Keskin–0.00–
F. Hadergjonaj–0.09–
I. Hagi–0.02–
M. Elia–0.00–
N. Lima–0.02–
O. Ben Ali–0.00–
P. Victor–0.00–
R. Pereira Duarte–0.00–
Y. Özdemir–0.00–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Not shown: 1 players the source listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Alanyaspor3-5-2

  1. 48Victor5.2
  1. 3Lima5.9
  2. 4ÖzyurtBooked 47′ · Off 62′6.7
  3. 5Aliti (c)5.9
  1. 94Hadergjonaj6.7
  2. 58MaestroBooked 59′6.3
  3. 55Ali GezekOff 74′6.3
  4. 42MakoutaOff 55′6.9
  5. 11Pereira Duarte6.0
  1. 7KayaOff 55′6.6
  2. 19BikoueOff 74′7.2
  1. 9MendesBooked 40′ · Goal 68′ · Off 80′7.7
  1. 7GouveiaGoal 66′ · Goal 78′ · Off 81′9.2
  2. 35ÜlgünGoal 1′8.0
  3. 10TongyaGoal 59′ · Off 86′9.2
  4. 14Malouda TraoréOff 72′7.5
  1. 19NiasseOff 72′6.5
  1. 3Aydar6.9
  2. 2Kelven6.9
  3. 90Baltacı7.5
  4. 15A. Çelik6.3
  1. 70Can Eğribayat (c)9.0

Gençlerbirliği4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Gençlerbirliği · Bench

Coach: Bernd Storck

Alanyaspor · Bench

Coach: Joao Pereira

Key players

Gençlerbirliğiavailable

  1. İ. Can Eğribayat · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. F. Tongya · Midfielder780 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. O. Diabate · Midfielder751 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistOut · Yellow Cards

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Alanyasporavailable

  1. F. Hadergjonaj · Midfielder810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. F. Aliti · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. P. Victor · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: Alanyaspor is ahead by 2.5 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Alanyaspor · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Alanyaspor · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Gençlerbirliği · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Gençlerbirliği +0.1, draw -0.5, Alanyaspor +0.4 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (25 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,017 → 1,015), history from (21 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 5–0: Gençlerbirliği. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 32.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.111, Brier 0.676 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Gençlerbirliği27.1
Alanyaspor54.3
Gençlerbirliği — 27.195% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 31% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Alanyaspor — 54.395% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, venue effect and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 31% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 02 Nov, 16:35 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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