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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 13

Celtic v Kilmarnock

CelticL. Scales 26′
1–0FT · HT 1–0
Kilmarnock
Where to watch

· Celtic Park, Glasgow

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: John Beaton
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Celtic Park, Glasgow
  • Referee: John Beaton
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Celtic⁩ win. The model gave it 85.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.013 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦3.23 – 0.73⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.29 – 1.53⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦3–0⁩ 10.7%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦4–0⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 7.8%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.3%

⁦1–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 08 Nov, 15:30 UK time, 29 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 7 Nov on 690 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 16:00Kick-off
  2. 9′Yellow card · KilmarnockT. Lowery
  3. 15′VAR · Celtic · Goal disallowedM. Baur
  4. 26′Goal · CelticL. Scales · (assist C. Durán)
  5. 33′Yellow card · KilmarnockJ. Hugill
  6. 40′Yellow card · KilmarnockC. McCarthy
  7. 45′Substitution · CelticY. Hyun-Jun on · Jota off
  8. 50′Yellow card · KilmarnockJ. Brandon
  9. 61′Yellow card · KilmarnockO. Pantaloni
  10. 64′Substitution · KilmarnockD. Daniels on · O. Pantaloni off
  11. 64′Substitution · KilmarnockM. Kamara on · J. Brandon off
  12. 70′Substitution · KilmarnockN. Cleșcenco on · G. Kiltie off
  13. 71′Substitution · CelticJ. Forrest on · K. Høgh off
  14. 73′VAR · Celtic · Penalty confirmedY. Hyun-Jun
  15. 76′Penalty missed · CelticB. Nygren
  16. 81′Yellow card · CelticY. Hyun-Jun
  17. 82′Substitution · CelticL. McCowan on · B. Nygren off
  18. 86′Substitution · CelticD. Murray on · K. Tierney off
  19. 86′Substitution · CelticA. Oxlade-Chamberlain on · M. Baur off
  20. 89′Substitution · KilmarnockE. Ring on · C. McCarthy off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 8Corners3
  • 2.29Expected goals (xG)1.53
  • 7Fouls12
  • 2Offsides0
  • 535Passes375
  • 469Accurate passes305
  • 59%Possession41%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves4
  • 20Shots7
  • 11Shots off target1
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 1Yellow cards5

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Celtic
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. McGregor907.000032
C. Carter-Vickers907.400220
C. Durán907.701340
C. Donovan906.400312
L. Scales907.910100
S. Johnstone907.500000
K. Tierney867.000002
M. Baur866.600112
B. Nygren826.500201
K. Høgh716.500411
Jota456.800110
Y. Hyun-Jun456.100201
J. Forrest196.600100
L. McCowan86.400000
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain46.200010
D. Murray46.700000
Kilmarnock
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Tshibola906.800003
G. Stanger906.900003
I. Owen906.300112
J. Hugill906.200102
M. Schjønning-Larsen906.900100
S. Valakari907.400000
T. Lowery905.900212
C. McCarthy896.500003
G. Kiltie706.500100
J. Brandon645.900000
O. Pantaloni646.000100
D. Daniels265.800000
M. Kamara266.400000
N. Cleșcenco206.200000
E. Ring16.600011

xG (Highlightly)limited

Celtic
PlayerxGxAxGOT
S. Johnstone–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 2 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Kilmarnock4-2-3-1

  1. 58S. Valakari7.4
  1. 2J. Brandon5.9
  2. 4C. McCarthy6.5
  3. 14G. Stanger6.9
  4. 21M. Schjønning-Larsen6.9
  1. 36A. Tshibola6.8
  2. 18T. Lowery5.9
  1. 9J. Hugill6.2
  2. 11G. Kiltie6.5
  3. 27I. Owen6.3
  1. 10O. Pantaloni6.0
  1. 9K. Høgh6.5
  1. 7Jota6.8
  2. 8B. Nygren6.5
  3. 11C. Durán7.7
  1. 22M. Baur6.6
  2. 42C. McGregor7.0
  1. 63K. Tierney7.0
  2. 5L. Scales7.9
  3. 20C. Carter-Vickers7.4
  4. 51C. Donovan6.4
  1. 26S. Johnstone7.5

Celtic4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Celtic · Bench

Coach: M. O'Neill

Kilmarnock · Bench

Coach: N. McCann

Key players

Celticavailable

  1. C. McGregor · Midfielder960 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. C. Donovan · Defender915 min in 12 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. L. Scales · Defender896 min in 10 matches · 2 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 12 matches played.

Kilmarnockavailable

  1. J. Hugill · Forward1,066 min in 12 matches · 2 goals · 2 assists
  2. G. Stanger · Defender1,061 min in 12 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  3. T. Lowery · Midfielder1,060 min in 12 matches · 0 goals · 2 assists

From player figures for all 12 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Celtic the most probability, 75.2 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Celtic · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Celtic · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Celtic · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Celtic +0.6, draw -0.4, Kilmarnock -0.2 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (687 → 695), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Celtic +0.1, draw -0.1, Kilmarnock 0.0 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 7 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (695 → 690), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 3 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: Celtic. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 85.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.162, Brier 0.035 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Celtic82.5
Kilmarnock25.8
Celtic — 82.595% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 89% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Kilmarnock — 25.895% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 25% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 25% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 8 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 08 Nov, 15:30 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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