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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

St Johnstone v Dundee United

St JohnstoneJ. Fowler 21′
1–1FT · HT 1–0
Dundee UnitedL. Cameron 79′
Where to watch

· McDiarmid Park, Perth

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: R. Hardie
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • McDiarmid Park, Perth
  • Referee: R. Hardie
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 28.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.130 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.19 – 1.24⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.28 – 1.11⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.3%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 9.1%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.0%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 12 Oct, 15:05 UK time, 4 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 681 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 21′Goal · St JohnstoneJ. Fowler · (assist E. Alić)
  3. 42′Yellow card · Dundee UnitedD. Tait
  4. 46′Substitution · St JohnstoneR. Paton on · J. Fowler off
  5. 46′Substitution · Dundee UnitedA. Yoro on · D. Bennie off
  6. 63′Substitution · Dundee UnitedL. Rose on · D. Tait off
  7. 63′Substitution · Dundee UnitedZ. Sapsford on · I. Metsoko off
  8. 66′Yellow card · Dundee UnitedL. Cameron
  9. 79′Goal · Dundee UnitedL. Cameron · (assist J. Randall)
  10. 82′Substitution · St JohnstoneJ. Gullan on · S. Stanton off
  11. 82′Substitution · St JohnstoneK. Fotheringham on · T. Steven off
  12. 84′Yellow card · St JohnstoneR. McAlear
  13. 88′Substitution · Dundee UnitedN. Farrugia on · J. Randall off
  14. 90+2′Yellow card · St JohnstoneJ. Holt
  15. 90′Yellow card · Dundee UnitedN. Farrugia
  16. 90′Yellow card · Dundee UnitedZ. Iqbal

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots2
  • 4Corners7
  • 1.28Expected goals (xG)1.11
  • 11Fouls15
  • 2Offsides2
  • 365Passes612
  • 274Accurate passes516
  • 38%Possession62%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Saves3
  • 11Shots14
  • 3Shots off target5
  • 5Shots on target7
  • 2Yellow cards4

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

St Johnstone
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Diabate906.700001
D. Finlayson907.100002
E. Alıç907.301223
J. Holt906.200110
J. Cotterill906.200022
L. Smith906.300010
R. McAlear906.600012
T. Steward907.500000
S. Stanton826.500206
T. Steven825.800102
J. Fowler457.710100
R. Paton456.900210
J. Gullan86.400100
K. Fotheringham86.500100
Dundee United
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Esselink906.700010
J. James Walton907.000000
J. Rawlins906.300033
K. Ciubotaru906.600102
L. Cameron908.210511
M. Forbes906.900001
Z. Iqbal907.100211
J. Randall887.201031
D. Tait636.500101
I. Metsoko636.500101
A. Yoro457.200034
D. Bennie456.400100
L. Rose276.400000
Z. Sapsford276.600200
N. Farrugia2–00100

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Dundee United4-3-3

  1. 1J. James Walton7.0
  1. 23J. Rawlins6.3
  2. 3B. Esselink6.7
  3. 18M. Forbes6.9
  4. 19K. Ciubotaru6.6
  1. 10D. Tait6.5
  2. 16L. Cameron8.2
  3. 14Z. Iqbal7.1
  1. 21J. Randall7.2
  2. 93I. Metsoko6.5
  3. 77D. Bennie6.4
  1. 9J. Fowler7.7
  1. 7T. Steven5.8
  2. 30J. Cotterill6.2
  3. 11S. Stanton6.5
  1. 8J. Holt6.2
  2. 42R. McAlear6.6
  1. 2E. Alić
  2. 3C. Diabate6.7
  3. 19D. Finlayson7.1
  4. 33L. Smith6.3
  1. 1T. Steward7.5

St Johnstone4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

St Johnstone · Bench

Coach: Simo Valakari

Dundee United · Bench

Coach: Jim Goodwin

Key players

St Johnstoneavailable

  1. T. Steward · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. R. McAlear · Midfielder674 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Holt · Midfielder626 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Dundee Unitedavailable

  1. M. Forbes · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  2. J. James Walton · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. B. Esselink · Defender692 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: Dundee United is ahead by 2.2 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Dundee United · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Dundee United · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours St Johnstone · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (9 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), history from (5 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (684 → 681), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 3 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 28.0%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.273, Brier 0.778 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

St Johnstone28.4
Dundee United50.6
St Johnstone — 28.495% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 46% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 27% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Dundee United — 50.695% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 15:05 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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