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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 14

Wrexham v Middlesbrough

WrexhamG. Thomason 70′ · O. Rathbone 84′
2–0FT · HT 0–0
Middlesbrough
Where to watch

· Racecourse Ground, Wrexham

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Oliver Langford
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Racecourse Ground, Wrexham
  • Referee: Oliver Langford
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Wrexham⁩ win. The model gave it 28.6%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.372 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.43 – 1.91⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.51 – 0.95⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.0%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 6.9%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 6.6%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 6.5%

⁦2–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 04 Nov, 19:20 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 3 Nov on 1,633 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 60′Substitution · MiddlesbroughM. Peart-Harris on · S. Berhalter off
  3. 60′Substitution · MiddlesbroughM. Arfsten on · L. Ayling off
  4. 60′Substitution · MiddlesbroughR. McGree on · K. Joseph off
  5. 62′Yellow card · WrexhamG. Dobson
  6. 70′Goal · WrexhamG. Thomason · (assist K. Moore)
  7. 72′Substitution · MiddlesbroughD. Strelec on · N. Borges off
  8. 77′Substitution · WrexhamO. Rathbone on · G. Thomason off
  9. 77′Substitution · MiddlesbroughJ. Sarmiento on · T. Conway off
  10. 83′Substitution · WrexhamB. Sheaf on · G. Dobson off
  11. 84′Goal · WrexhamO. Rathbone · (assist L. O'Brien)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 3Corners2
  • 1.51Expected goals (xG)0.95
  • 9Fouls6
  • 1Offsides3
  • 385Passes649
  • 306Accurate passes577
  • 38%Possession62%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Saves2
  • 15Shots12
  • 7Shots off target7
  • 4Shots on target2
  • 1Yellow cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Wrexham
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Patterson906.400000
B. Whiteman906.900201
C. Doyle906.700105
I. Kaboré906.400002
J. Ekomié906.400014
J. Worrall906.900001
K. Moore907.701540
L. O'Brien907.601142
M. Cleworth906.800101
G. Dobson836.400004
G. Thomason778.210322
O. Rathbone137.410200
B. Sheaf76.500000
Middlesbrough
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Malanda906.600100
A. Morris907.000002
A. Cozier-Duberry906.700230
A. Phillips906.300001
C. Brittain906.400201
R. Vitek906.200000
T. Conway776.300110
N. Borges726.100002
K. Joseph606.400200
L. Ayling606.700001
S. Berhalter606.600030
M. Arfsten306.900111
M. Peart-Harris306.100011
R. McGree306.000100
D. Strelec186.500010
J. Sarmiento136.800200

xG (Highlightly) available

Wrexham
PlayerxGxAxGOT
L. O'Brien0.750.31–
K. Moore0.230.050.06
O. Rathbone0.130.000.89
G. Thomason0.100.020.09
B. Whiteman0.090.01–
C. Doyle0.080.01–
M. Cleworth0.020.060.24
A. Patterson–0.00–
B. Sheaf–0.00–
G. Dobson–0.02–
I. Kaboré–0.04–
J. Ekomié–0.04–
J. Worrall–0.00–
Middlesbrough
PlayerxGxAxGOT
K. Joseph0.240.01–
C. Brittain0.180.020.09
J. Sarmiento0.120.01–
R. McGree0.120.11–
A. Malanda0.110.020.03
A. Cozier-Duberry0.080.31–
T. Conway0.050.07–
M. Arfsten0.020.23–
A. Morris–0.03–
A. Phillips–0.00–
D. Strelec–0.02–
L. Ayling–0.02–
M. Peart-Harris–0.09–
N. Borges–0.02–
R. Vitek–0.00–
S. Berhalter–0.35–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Middlesbrough3-4-2-1

  1. 1R. Vitek6.2
  1. 12L. Ayling6.7
  2. 4A. Phillips6.3
  3. 29A. Malanda6.6
  1. 2C. Brittain6.4
  2. 10A. Morris7.0
  3. 6S. Berhalter6.6
  4. 30N. Borges6.1
  1. 11A. Cozier-Duberry6.7
  2. 9T. Conway6.3
  1. 22K. Joseph6.4
  1. 19K. Moore7.7
  1. 27L. O'Brien7.6
  1. 3J. Ekomié6.4
  2. 14G. Thomason8.2
  3. 8B. Whiteman6.9
  4. 15G. Dobson6.4
  5. 12I. Kaboré6.4
  1. 2C. Doyle6.7
  2. 6J. Worrall6.9
  3. 4M. Cleworth6.8
  1. 22A. Patterson6.4

Wrexham3-5-1-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Wrexham · Bench

Coach: P. Parkinson

Middlesbrough · Bench

Coach: K. Hellberg

Key players

Wrexhamavailable

  1. A. Patterson · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. C. Doyle · Defender1,080 min in 12 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. D. Hyam · Defender1,046 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Middlesbroughavailable

  1. C. Brittain · Defender1,170 min in 13 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. R. Vitek · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. A. Morris · Midfielder1,080 min in 12 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Middlesbrough the most probability, 19.8 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Middlesbrough · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Middlesbrough · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Wrexham · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (27 Oct 2026 → 30 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,645 → 1,633), history from (23 Oct 2023 → 26 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Wrexham -6.0, draw -0.8, Middlesbrough +6.8 points (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 3 Nov 2026), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 30 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Wrexham. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 28.6%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.251, Brier 0.797 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Wrexham47.0
Middlesbrough86.4
Wrexham — 47.095% measured
  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Middlesbrough — 86.495% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 04 Nov, 19:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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