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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 12

Charlton v Norwich

Charlton
1–3FT · HT 1–1
Norwich
Where to watch

· The Valley, London

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: John Busby
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • The Valley, London
  • Referee: John Busby
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Norwich⁩ win. The model gave it 41.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.220 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.15 – 1.37⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.68 – 1.77⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 3⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.2%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.8%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.7%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.6%

⁦1–3⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 24 Oct, 12:03 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 23 Oct on 1,643 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 12:30Kick-off
  2. 10′Goal · CharltonC. Kelman · (assist J. Rankin-Costello)
  3. 27′Yellow card · CharltonK. Grant
  4. 29′Yellow card · NorwichM. Kvistgaarden
  5. 32′Yellow card · CharltonJ. Edwards
  6. 35′Goal · NorwichP. Maghoma · (assist M. Kvistgaarden)
  7. 46′Substitution · NorwichK. McLean on · P. Mattsson off
  8. 50′Goal · NorwichM. Kvistgaarden · (assist R. McConville)
  9. 55′Substitution · CharltonI. Mesík on · J. Edwards off
  10. 55′Substitution · CharltonH. Knibbs on · S. Carey off
  11. 55′Substitution · CharltonM. Leaburn on · K. Grant off
  12. 65′Substitution · NorwichS. Field on · P. Maghoma off
  13. 69′Yellow card · CharltonH. Knibbs
  14. 75′Substitution · CharltonA. Mwamba on · C. Coventry off
  15. 75′Substitution · NorwichA. Musaba on · A. Brooks off
  16. 75′Substitution · NorwichJ. Makama on · M. Kvistgaarden off
  17. 76′Own goal · NorwichI. Mesík
  18. 83′Substitution · CharltonM. Mbick on · J. Rankin-Costello off
  19. 88′Yellow card · CharltonA. Mwamba
  20. 88′Substitution · NorwichD. Yongwa on · O. Schwartau off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 4Blocked shots4
  • 3Corners7
  • 0.68Expected goals (xG)1.77
  • 14Fouls9
  • 3Offsides3
  • 62%Pass accuracy79%
  • 280Passes467
  • 173Accurate passes371
  • 38%Possession62%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Saves2
  • 8Shots16
  • 1Shots off target7
  • 3Shots on target5
  • 4Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Charlton
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Okonkwo906.200001
B. Koumetio907.500022
C. Kelman907.910300
K. Ramsay907.200000
L. Jones906.200002
T. Campbell906.700110
J. Rankin-Costello837.901013
C. Coventry756.600001
J. Edwards556.200003
K. Grant556.200000
S. Carey556.500101
H. Knibbs356.300001
I. Mesík356.200102
M. Leaburn357.300000
M. Mbick166.200000
A. Mwamba156.300001
Norwich
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Chrisene906.700002
D. Grimshaw907.300000
H. Darling906.900100
J. Stacey907.300003
J. Wright907.000220
R. McConville907.601022
O. Schwartau885.900012
A. Brooks756.300210
M. Kvistgaarden757.211211
P. Maghoma658.310121
K. McLean456.900011
P. Mattsson456.600111
S. Field256.600110
A. Musaba156.700201
J. Makama156.700100
D. Yongwa117.300023

xG (Highlightly) available

Charlton
PlayerxGxAxGOT
C. Kelman0.510.021.32
I. Mesík0.070.06–
J. Rankin-Costello0.050.66–
S. Carey0.040.01–
A. Mwamba–0.00–
A. Okonkwo–0.00–
B. Koumetio–0.05–
C. Coventry–0.03–
H. Knibbs–0.01–
J. Edwards–0.00–
K. Grant–0.02–
K. Ramsay–0.03–
L. Jones–0.01–
M. Mbick–0.00–
M. Leaburn–0.01–
Norwich
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Kvistgaarden0.530.010.93
A. Musaba0.45–0.27
A. Brooks0.380.05–
P. Maghoma0.110.140.20
J. Wright0.080.100.08
R. McConville0.080.33–
H. Darling0.070.01–
J. Makama0.030.00–
P. Mattsson0.020.02–
S. Field0.020.00–
B. Chrisene–0.16–
D. Grimshaw–0.00–
D. Yongwa–0.19–
J. Stacey–0.01–
K. McLean–0.13–
O. Schwartau–0.01–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Norwich4-2-3-1

  1. 32D. Grimshaw7.3
  1. 3J. Stacey7.3
  2. 15R. McConville7.6
  3. 6H. Darling6.9
  4. 14B. Chrisene6.7
  1. 16J. Wright7.0
  2. 7P. Mattsson (c)6.6
  1. 11A. Brooks6.3
  2. 25P. Maghoma8.3
  3. 29O. Schwartau5.9
  1. 30M. Kvistgaarden7.2
  1. 23C. Kelman7.9
  1. 9K. Grant6.2
  2. 14S. Carey6.5
  3. 7T. Campbell6.7
  1. 26J. Rankin-Costello7.9
  2. 6C. Coventry6.6
  1. 3J. Edwards6.2
  2. 12B. Koumetio7.5
  3. 5L. Jones (c)6.2
  4. 2K. Ramsay7.2
  1. 13A. Okonkwo6.2

Charlton4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Charlton · Bench

Coach: Nathan Jones

Norwich · Bench

Coach: Philippe Clement

Key players

Charltonavailable

  1. L. Jones · Defender990 min in 11 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. T. Campbell · Midfielder905 min in 11 matches · 4 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. A. Okonkwo · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Norwichavailable

  1. J. Córdoba · Defender964 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. P. Mattsson · Midfielder921 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. R. McConville · Defender830 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Norwich the most probability, 10.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Norwich · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Norwich · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Charlton · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 17 Oct 2026), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 13 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Charlton +1.6, draw -1.8, Norwich +0.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 23 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,619 → 1,643), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 19 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–3: Norwich. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 41.3%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.884, Brier 0.517 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Charlton26.8
Norwich52.2
Charlton — 26.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 63% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Norwich — 52.295% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 24 Oct, 12:03 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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