Skip to content

Moments that matter

9 live

Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
3 more2 more1 more
← ScoresTimes: UK time

Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Gaziantep v Erzurumspor

Gaziantep
1–3FT · HT 0–0
Erzurumspor
Where to watch

· Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: M. Dakan
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep
  • Referee: M. Dakan
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Erzurumspor⁩ win. The model gave it 15.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.500 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.36 – 0.61⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.60 – 1.20⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 3⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 18.1%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 14.8%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 12.9%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.9%

⁦1–3⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 19 Oct, 14:10 UK time, 4 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 18 Oct on 1,003 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 14:00Kick-off
  2. 29′Substitution · ErzurumsporY. Kırtay on · M. Yumlu off
  3. 41′Yellow card · GaziantepM. Abena
  4. 46′Substitution · GaziantepA. Kızıldağ on · M. Abena off
  5. 46′Substitution · GaziantepS. Dursun on · T. Stewart off
  6. 53′Goal · ErzurumsporM. Cardoso · (assist E. Tozlu)
  7. 64′Goal · ErzurumsporA. Gerxhaliu · (assist O. Ovacıklı)
  8. 70′Own goal · GaziantepO. Ovacıklı
  9. 74′Substitution · GaziantepK. Gassama on · J. Bacuna off
  10. 77′Substitution · ErzurumsporM. Fettahoglu on · M. Cardoso off
  11. 77′Substitution · ErzurumsporI. Diabaté on · E. Tozlu off
  12. 79′Substitution · GaziantepH. Dervişoğlu on · D. Camara off
  13. 83′Substitution · ErzurumsporG. Kerk on · M. Rodríguez off
  14. 86′Yellow card · GaziantepK. Kozłowski
  15. 90′Goal · ErzurumsporG. Giorbelidze · (assist M. Fettahoglu)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 5Blocked shots1
  • 5Corners2
  • 1.60Expected goals (xG)1.20
  • 10Fouls7
  • 1Offsides2
  • 90%Pass accuracy79%
  • 600Passes378
  • 537Accurate passes300
  • 62%Possession38%
  • 0Saves7
  • 21Shots10
  • 9Shots off target6
  • 7Shots on target3
  • 2Yellow cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Gaziantep
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Sylla907.2003–1
A. Maxim907.200150
D. Sorescu906.700111
K. Kozłowski906.000330
K. Tobiasz905.300––0
K. Çalhanoğlu906.300221
L. Pérez906.300––1
D. Camara796.600–31
J. Bacuna746.300122
M. Abena457.0001–1
S. Dursun456.2003–0
T. Stewart456.6001–0
S. Destici325.900–10
K. Gassama166.500––0
A. Kızıldağ136.500––0
H. Dervişoğlu116.300––0
Erzurumspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Gerxhaliu907.9101–1
B. Baiye906.900–13
E. Taskiran907.500––0
E. Owusu907.300–15
G. Giorbelidze907.5103–1
N. Mujakić906.600––1
O. Ovacıklı907.201–35
M. Rodríguez846.3001–0
E. Tozlu776.901111
M. Cardoso777.610313
Y. Kırtay616.700––0
M. Yumlu296.900––1
I. Diabaté136.300––0
M. Fettahoglu137.701–10
G. Kerk116.900––0

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Highlightly supplies no expected goals for this match.

Line-ups available

Erzurumspor5-3-2

  1. 1E. Taskiran7.5
  1. 53O. Ovacıklı7.2
  2. 4A. Gerxhaliu7.9
  3. 22M. Yumlu (c)6.9
  4. 18N. Mujakić6.6
  5. 15G. Giorbelidze7.5
  1. 6B. Baiye6.9
  2. 42E. Owusu7.3
  3. 65M. Rodríguez6.3
  1. 10E. Tozlu6.9
  2. 20M. Cardoso7.6
  1. 9T. Stewart6.6
  1. 10K. Kozłowski6.0
  2. 44A. Maxim (c)7.2
  3. 3D. Camara6.6
  4. 18D. Sorescu6.7
  1. 7J. Bacuna6.3
  1. 23K. Çalhanoğlu6.3
  2. 21A. Sylla7.2
  3. 14M. Abena7.0
  4. 2L. Pérez6.3
  1. 25K. Tobiasz5.3

Gaziantep4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Gaziantep · Bench

Coach: Orhan Ak

Erzurumspor · Bench

Coach: Serkan Ozbalta

Key players

Gaziantepavailable

  1. M. Abena · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. K. Tobiasz · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. K. Kozłowski · Forward690 min in 8 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Erzurumsporavailable

  1. A. Gerxhaliu · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. B. Baiye · Midfielder720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. N. Mujakić · Defender697 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Gaziantep the most probability, 24.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Gaziantep · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Gaziantep · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Gaziantep · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Gaziantep -0.1, draw +0.1, Erzurumspor 0.0 points (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 17 Oct 2026), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 13 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 18 Oct 2026), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 14 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–3: Erzurumspor. Version 3 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 15.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.837, Brier 1.090 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Gaziantep39.1
Erzurumspor27.0
Gaziantep — 39.195% measured

Driven mostly by venue effect, underlying team strength and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Erzurumspor — 27.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 84% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 19 Oct, 14:10 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.