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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Mechelen v Sint-Truiden

Mechelen
4–3FT · HT 3–1
Sint-Truiden
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: B. Verbeke
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: B. Verbeke
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Mechelen⁩ win. The model gave it 31.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.323 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.35 – 1.59⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.78 – 1.63⁩
Goals
⁦4 – 3⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.9%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 7.9%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.6%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 6.7%

⁦4–3⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 11 Oct, 17:55 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 10 Oct on 925 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 18:15Kick-off
  2. 5′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenK. Takai
  3. 24′Own goal · MechelenK. Takai
  4. 34′Goal · MechelenS. Michez
  5. 39′Own goal · MechelenS. Taniguchi
  6. 42′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenK. Matsuzawa
  7. 44′Goal · Sint-TruidenS. Baždar · (assist R. Merlen)
  8. 46′Substitution · Sint-TruidenN. Ishiwatari on · K. Matsuzawa off
  9. 46′Substitution · Sint-TruidenN. Mbuku on · R. Araki off
  10. 49′Goal · Sint-TruidenI. Sebaoui
  11. 53′Yellow card · MechelenM. Decherf
  12. 62′Goal · MechelenB. Raman · (assist K. Corbanie)
  13. 63′Substitution · MechelenC. Jan Van Meirvenne on · B. Raman off
  14. 67′Substitution · Sint-TruidenF. Soelle Soelle on · S. Baždar off
  15. 67′Substitution · Sint-TruidenS. Shinkawa on · R. Merlen off
  16. 71′Goal · Sint-TruidenF. Soelle Soelle
  17. 81′Substitution · MechelenL. Marijnissen on · M. Eerdhuijzen off
  18. 81′Substitution · MechelenD. Praet on · M. Decherf off
  19. 81′Substitution · MechelenB. Antonio on · T. Koudou off
  20. 81′Substitution · MechelenM. Lohunanu-Mbasi on · B. Boersma off
  21. 84′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenN. Ishiwatari
  22. 88′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenS. Taniguchi
  23. 90+5′Yellow card · MechelenF. Hammar

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots2
  • 2Corners8
  • 0.78Expected goals (xG)1.63
  • 12Fouls14
  • 4Offsides1
  • 70%Pass accuracy81%
  • 344Passes604
  • 240Accurate passes487
  • 36%Possession64%
  • 4Saves1
  • 9Shots17
  • 3Shots off target8
  • 3Shots on target7
  • 2Yellow cards4

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Mechelen
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
F. Hammar907.000––3
J. Marsà906.6001–1
K. Corbanie907.201–10
M. Van Brederode906.300–22
N. Miras906.900––0
S. Michez907.210212
B. Boersma817.000–10
M. Decherf816.600––3
M. Eerdhuijzen817.500––1
T. Koudou816.700111
B. Raman637.7101–2
C. Jan Van Meirvenne276.900––3
B. Antonio96.7001–0
D. Praet96.600––2
L. Marijnissen96.900––0
M. Lohunanu-Mbasi96.500––0
Sint-Truiden
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Sissako907.200–21
I. Sebaoui907.3104–1
K. Takai905.200––1
L. Kokubo905.000––0
R. Vanwesemael906.300222
S. Taniguchi906.700–13
T. Hata906.000–12
R. Merlen676.901110
S. Baždar677.3104–0
K. Matsuzawa456.700–20
N. Mbuku456.3002–2
N. Ishiwatari456.500––1
R. Araki456.300111
F. Soelle Soelle237.310110
S. Shinkawa236.600––1

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

  1. 28B. Boersma7.0
  2. 14B. Raman7.7
  1. 7T. Koudou6.7
  2. 9M. Van Brederode6.3
  3. 30M. Decherf6.6
  4. 23S. Michez7.2
  1. 6F. Hammar (c)7.0
  1. 20K. Corbanie7.2
  2. 3J. Marsà6.6
  3. 44M. Eerdhuijzen7.5
  1. 13N. Miras6.9

Mechelen3-1-4-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sint-Truiden

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Mechelen · Bench

Coach: Frederic Vanderbiest

Sint-Truiden · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Mechelenavailable

  1. M. Van Brederode · Forward630 min in 7 matches · 3 goals · 0 assists
  2. N. Miras · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Marsà · Defender604 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Sint-Truidenavailable

  1. L. Kokubo · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. V. Musliu · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. I. Sebaoui · Midfielder619 min in 7 matches · 1 goal · 3 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Sint-Truiden the most probability, 10.8 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Sint-Truiden · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Sint-Truiden · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Mechelen · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Mechelen +8.4, draw +2.2, Sint-Truiden -10.6 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (3 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (336 → 926), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (29 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (926 → 925), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    Nothing the model reads changed between these two versions. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 4–3: Mechelen. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 31.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.143, Brier 0.711 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Mechelen24.5
Sint-Truiden67.5
Mechelen — 24.595% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 34% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Sint-Truiden — 67.595% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 87% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 59% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 11 Oct, 17:55 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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