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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht

Dinamo ZagrebD. Drena Beljo 90+6′
1–0FT · HT 0–0
Anderlecht
Where to watch

· Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Orel Grinfeld
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
  • Referee: Orel Grinfeld
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Dinamo Zagreb⁩ win. The model gave it 39.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.247 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.50 – 1.41⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.11 – 1.10⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.0%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 7.3%

⁦1–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 12 Oct, 01:02 UK time, 3 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 15,579 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 29′Yellow card · Dinamo ZagrebN. Galešić
  3. 35′Yellow card · AnderlechtT. Degreef
  4. 55′Yellow card · Dinamo ZagrebJ. Mišić
  5. 62′Substitution · Dinamo ZagrebD. Rodríguez on · I. Almena off
  6. 62′Substitution · Dinamo ZagrebM. Valinčić on · N. Galešić off
  7. 65′Substitution · AnderlechtT. Bentayeb on · L. Ambros off
  8. 68′Substitution · Dinamo ZagrebL. Kačavenda on · L. Stojković off
  9. 73′Yellow card · AnderlechtM. Winkler
  10. 77′Substitution · AnderlechtA. Bertaccini on · T. Degreef off
  11. 77′Substitution · AnderlechtD. Sikan on · M. Cvetković off
  12. 87′Substitution · AnderlechtR. Amane on · M. Stroeykens off
  13. 87′Substitution · AnderlechtO. Antman on · M. Winkler off
  14. 90+4′VAR · Dinamo Zagreb · Penalty confirmedD. Rodríguez
  15. 90+6′Penalty · Dinamo ZagrebD. Drena Beljo

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 1Blocked shots0
  • 6Corners2
  • 2.11Expected goals (xG)1.10
  • 21Fouls13
  • 473Passes576
  • 416Accurate passes516
  • 45%Possession55%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Saves2
  • 13Shots10
  • 9Shots off target4
  • 3Shots on target6
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Dinamo Zagreb
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Hoxha907.200330
D. Drena Beljo907.210121
D. Kotarski908.400000
J. Mišić907.000001
L. Ivanušec907.000216
M. Perez Vinlöf906.700002
S. Domínguez907.600003
S. Radeljić907.500002
L. Stojković686.600301
I. Almena626.500121
N. Galešić626.900100
D. Rodríguez286.600200
M. Valinčić286.900010
L. Kačavenda226.800001
Anderlecht
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Omobamidele907.200000
C. Coosemans906.900000
K. Barry907.200013
L. Pétrot907.000001
O. Reabciuk907.500220
T. Aasgaard906.800202
M. Stroeykens876.600001
M. Winkler876.900222
M. Cvetković776.200201
T. Degreef776.300212
L. Ambros656.600022
T. Bentayeb256.500000
A. Bertaccini135.900000
D. Sikan136.100001
O. Antman36.300001
R. Amane36.500000

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Anderlecht4-2-3-1

  1. 26C. Coosemans6.9
  1. 50K. Barry7.2
  2. 12A. Omobamidele7.2
  3. 27L. Pétrot7.0
  4. 5O. Reabciuk7.5
  1. 29M. Stroeykens6.6
  2. 19T. Aasgaard6.8
  1. 10M. Winkler6.9
  2. 18L. Ambros6.6
  3. 83T. Degreef6.3
  1. 9M. Cvetković6.2
  1. 9D. Drena Beljo7.2
  1. 11A. Hoxha7.2
  2. 17L. Ivanušec7.0
  3. 10L. Stojković6.6
  4. 23I. Almena6.5
  1. 27J. Mišić7.0
  1. 22M. Perez Vinlöf6.7
  2. 6S. Radeljić7.5
  3. 36S. Domínguez7.6
  4. 15N. Galešić6.9
  1. 24D. Kotarski8.4

Dinamo Zagreb4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Dinamo Zagreb · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Anderlecht · Bench

Coach: Vítor Bruno

Key players

Dinamo Zagrebavailable

  1. B. Goda · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. D. Kotarski · Goalkeeper90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. J. Mišić · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Anderlechtlimited

  1. A. Maamar · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. A. Omobamidele · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. C. Coosemans · Goalkeeper90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 1 of 7 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: Dinamo Zagreb is ahead by 4.0 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Dinamo Zagreb · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Anderlecht · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Anderlecht · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2 · Early pre-match: first available version.
    The early pre-match version reported no inputs, so nothing can be attributed.
  3. v3 · Dinamo Zagreb +1.0, draw 0.0, Anderlecht -1.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,135 → 15,091), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Dinamo Zagreb -0.1, draw 0.0, Anderlecht +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,091 → 15,579), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: Dinamo Zagreb. Version 4 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 39.2%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.938, Brier 0.560 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.