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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Primeira Liga· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Arouca v Nacional

Arouca
1–0FT · HT 0–0
Nacional
Where to watch

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
  • Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Arouca⁩ win. The model gave it 50.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.154 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.67 – 1.11⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.74 – 0.34⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.3%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.6%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 8.7%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 7.1%

⁦1–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 01 Nov, 15:03 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 31 Oct on 917 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:30Kick-off
  2. 59′Substitution · AroucaP. Gozálbez on · T. Fukui off
  3. 64′Own goal · AroucaM. Dias
  4. 70′Substitution · NacionalM. Djaló on · S. Gavriel off
  5. 70′Substitution · NacionalD. Dongmo on · C. Labidi off
  6. 71′Substitution · NacionalP. Messias Cardozo on · A. Njoya off
  7. 71′Substitution · AroucaD. Nandín on · I. Barbero off
  8. 74′Yellow card · NacionalM. Djaló
  9. 75′Substitution · AroucaB. Mansilla on · A. Trezza off
  10. 75′Substitution · AroucaH. Lee on · M. Flores off
  11. 76′Yellow card · AroucaO. Lebedenko
  12. 78′Yellow card · NacionalD. Dongmo
  13. 81′Substitution · NacionalDaniel Júnior on · M. Baeza off
  14. 81′Substitution · NacionalA. Obando on · M. Song off
  15. 90+4′Yellow card · AroucaP. Gozálbez

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 2Blocked shots2
  • 8Corners2
  • 0.74Expected goals (xG)0.34
  • 6Fouls10
  • 0Offsides1
  • 553Passes338
  • 485Accurate passes272
  • 62%Possession38%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Saves4
  • 13Shots5
  • 7Shots off target2
  • 4Shots on target1
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Arouca
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Van Ee907.000010
I. de Arruabarrena906.900000
J. Sánchez907.200000
J. Fontán907.400110
N. Djouahra906.900220
O. Lebedenko907.100111
T. Esgaio906.400112
A. Trezza756.400111
M. Flores756.500103
I. Barbero716.300201
T. Fukui596.300000
P. Gozálbez316.300100
D. Nandín196.900210
B. Mansilla156.800011
H. Lee156.700110
Nacional
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Goncalves906.500011
M. Jensen906.800023
M. Dias905.000002
R. Marin907.400000
W. Kokolo906.400101
Z. Vitor907.000103
M. Baeza815.900100
M. Song816.200000
A. Njoya716.600101
C. Labidi706.400003
S. Gavriel706.200100
D. Dongmo206.100000
M. Djaló206.000000
P. Messias Cardozo196.400000
A. Obando96.300000
Daniel Júnior96.700000

xG (Highlightly)limited

Arouca
PlayerxGxAxGOT
I. Barbero0.260.00–
D. Nandín0.150.040.69
M. Flores0.120.01–
N. Djouahra0.070.07–
P. Gozálbez0.030.00–
H. Lee0.020.000.23
J. Fontán0.020.02–
T. Esgaio0.020.030.23
O. Lebedenko0.010.010.09
A. Trezza–0.04–
B. Mansilla–0.07–
E. Van Ee–0.02–
I. de Arruabarrena–0.00–
J. Sánchez–0.02–
T. Fukui–0.01–
Nacional
PlayerxGxAxGOT
Z. Vitor0.150.00–
M. Baeza0.040.010.24
S. Gavriel0.040.00–
W. Kokolo0.020.01–
C. Goncalves–0.06–
C. Labidi–0.01–
D. Dongmo–0.01–
Daniel Júnior–0.00–
M. Jensen–0.04–
M. Djaló–0.00–
M. Dias–0.00–
M. Song–0.02–
P. Messias Cardozo–0.01–
R. Marin–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Nacional4-2-3-1

  1. 1R. Marin7.4
  1. 7M. Jensen6.8
  2. 33C. Goncalves6.5
  3. 38Z. Vitor7.0
  4. 21W. Kokolo6.4
  1. 6M. Dias5.0
  2. 8M. Baeza5.9
  1. 11S. Gavriel6.2
  2. 15C. Labidi6.4
  3. 12M. Song6.2
  1. 29A. Njoya6.6
  1. 17I. Barbero6.3
  1. 7N. Djouahra6.9
  2. 8T. Fukui6.3
  3. 19A. Trezza6.4
  1. 21M. Flores6.5
  2. 6E. Van Ee7.0
  1. 18O. Lebedenko7.1
  2. 3J. Fontán7.4
  3. 15J. Sánchez7.2
  4. 28T. Esgaio6.4
  1. 12I. de Arruabarrena6.9

Arouca4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Arouca · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Nacional · Bench

Coach: João Henriques

Key players

Aroucaavailable

  1. I. de Arruabarrena · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. T. Esgaio · Defender808 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Fontán · Defender787 min in 9 matches · 2 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Nacionalavailable

  1. R. Marin · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. Z. Vitor · Defender765 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  3. M. Baeza · Midfielder652 min in 9 matches · 2 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Primeira Liga 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Arouca the most probability, 25.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Arouca · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Arouca · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Arouca · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (24 Oct 2026 → 25 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (917 → 918), history from (20 Oct 2023 → 21 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Arouca +0.3, draw -0.1, Nacional -0.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (25 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (918 → 917), history from (21 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: Arouca. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 50.7%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.679, Brier 0.365 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Arouca60.4
Nacional25.8
Arouca — 60.495% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 46% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Nacional — 25.895% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, venue effect and underlying team strength.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 15% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 01 Nov, 15:03 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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