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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Aberdeen v St Johnstone

Aberdeen
0–1FT · HT 0–1
St JohnstoneJ. Fowler 14′
Where to watch

· Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: R. Lee
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen
  • Referee: R. Lee
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨St Johnstone⁩ win. The model gave it 22.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.422 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.44 – 0.88⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.69 – 1.25⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 13.9%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.7%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 10.1%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.0%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 11 Oct, 06:55 UK time, 7 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 10 Oct on 684 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 14:00Kick-off
  2. 11′VAR · St Johnstone · Penalty confirmedJ. Fowler
  3. 14′Penalty · St JohnstoneJ. Fowler
  4. 35′Substitution · AberdeenL. Smith on · A. Mouloua off
  5. 58′Substitution · St JohnstoneJ. Cotterill on · R. Paton off
  6. 59′Substitution · AberdeenT. Yogane on · F. Marshall off
  7. 59′Substitution · AberdeenS. Armstrong on · C. Ronan off
  8. 67′Substitution · St JohnstoneT. Steven on · M. Todd off
  9. 68′Substitution · AberdeenH. Mahou on · N. Guinness-Walker off
  10. 78′Substitution · St JohnstoneJ. Gullan on · J. Fowler off
  11. 78′Substitution · St JohnstoneJ. Campbell on · S. Stanton off
  12. 90′Yellow card · AberdeenM. Müller
  13. 90′Substitution · AberdeenA. Afeez on · C. Cadden off
  14. 90′Substitution · St JohnstoneB. Mikulić on · D. Finlayson off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 5Blocked shots3
  • 13Corners2
  • 1.69Expected goals (xG)1.25
  • 7Fouls10
  • 82%Pass accuracy73%
  • 564Passes307
  • 462Accurate passes223
  • 66%Possession34%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 0Saves5
  • 23Shots6
  • 13Shots off target2
  • 5Shots on target1
  • 1Yellow cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Aberdeen
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Lyons907.300112
G. Molloy906.900003
J. Milne907.500403
K. Nisbet906.600340
M. Müller906.900000
M. Knoester907.300011
C. Cadden897.300222
N. Guinness-Walker686.900000
C. Ronan596.900110
F. Marshall596.200100
L. Smith557.000331
L. Smith556.7–0231
A. Mouloua356.700102
S. Armstrong317.200020
T. Yogane316.900120
H. Mahou226.500200
A. Afeez1–00000
St Johnstone
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Alić906.2–0–––
E. Alıç906.400000
J. Holt907.300101
L. Smith907.300003
M. Foulds907.300004
R. McAlear906.900001
T. Steward908.000000
D. Finlayson897.300001
J. Fowler786.210110
S. Stanton787.000001
M. Todd676.600000
R. Paton586.900110
J. Cotterill326.600000
T. Steven236.300100
J. Gullan126.600000
J. Campbell126.600001
B. Mikulić1–00000

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

St Johnstone3-4-2-1

  1. 1T. Steward8.0
  1. 33L. Smith7.3
  2. 19D. Finlayson7.3
  3. 14M. Foulds7.3
  1. 26M. Todd6.6
  2. 42R. McAlear6.9
  3. 8J. Holt (c)7.3
  4. 2E. Alić6.2
  1. 11S. Stanton7.0
  2. 99R. Paton6.9
  1. 9J. Fowler6.2
  1. 15K. Nisbet (c)6.6
  2. 9A. Mouloua6.7
  1. 25C. Ronan6.9
  2. 40F. Marshall6.2
  3. 8B. Lyons7.3
  1. 24N. Guinness-Walker6.9
  2. 21G. Molloy6.9
  3. 5M. Knoester7.3
  4. 22J. Milne7.5
  5. 28C. Cadden7.3
  1. 27M. Müller6.9

Aberdeen5-3-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Aberdeen · Bench

Coach: Stephen Robinson

St Johnstone · Bench

Coach: Simo Valakari

Key players

Aberdeenavailable

  1. M. Müller · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. C. Cadden · Midfielder613 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. N. Guinness-Walker · Midfielder607 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

St Johnstoneavailable

  1. T. Steward · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. C. Diabate · Defender593 min in 7 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  3. R. McAlear · Midfielder584 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Aberdeen the most probability, 22.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Aberdeen · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Aberdeen · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Aberdeen · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Aberdeen +12.7, draw -1.4, St Johnstone -11.3 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (3 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (254 → 684), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (29 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: St Johnstone. Version 3 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 22.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.476, Brier 0.918 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Aberdeen49.6
St Johnstone31.0
Aberdeen — 49.695% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, rest, travel and schedule and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 54% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 36% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

St Johnstone — 31.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 46% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 27% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 11 Oct, 06:55 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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