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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Preston v Millwall

Preston
0–1FT · HT 0–0
MillwallC. Neghli 79′
Where to watch

· Deepdale, Preston

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Benjamin Speedie
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Deepdale, Preston
  • Referee: Benjamin Speedie
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Millwall⁩ win. The model gave it 51.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.146 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.15 – 1.80⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.65 – 1.09⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.2%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 8.5%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 6.6%

⁦0–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 10 Oct, 14:31 UK time, 28 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 9 Oct on 1,631 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 15′Yellow card · PrestonL. Leroy
  3. 19′Yellow card · MillwallJ. Metcalfe
  4. 46′Substitution · PrestonP. Valentín on · H. Clarke off
  5. 59′Substitution · PrestonD. Burgzorg on · C. Lang off
  6. 66′Substitution · MillwallT. Crama on · R. Leonard off
  7. 66′Substitution · MillwallL. Cundle on · K. Lisbie off
  8. 71′Yellow card · MillwallD. Mazou-Sacko
  9. 72′Substitution · PrestonT. Small on · A. Vukčević off
  10. 74′Substitution · MillwallM. Sykes on · T. Arconte off
  11. 79′Goal · MillwallC. Neghli · (assist L. Cundle)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 5Blocked shots1
  • 4Corners4
  • 0.65Expected goals (xG)1.09
  • 8Fouls11
  • 1Offsides2
  • 69%Pass accuracy71%
  • 355Passes422
  • 246Accurate passes300
  • 46%Possession54%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Saves1
  • 12Shots11
  • 6Shots off target7
  • 1Shots on target3
  • 1Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Preston
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Devine906.600102
A. Hughes906.300000
D. Iversen907.000000
J. Storey906.900000
J. Thompson906.700111
J. Erabi906.300101
L. Leroy907.200124
O. Offiah907.200001
A. Vukčević727.000012
C. Lang596.700221
H. Clarke456.600220
P. Valentín456.300001
D. Burgzorg316.600001
T. Small186.200000
Millwall
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Taylor907.500112
C. Neghli908.310212
D. Mazou-Sacko906.900100
F. Marschall906.600000
J. Cooper907.200001
J. Metcalfe907.200123
L. Dykes906.200121
Z. Sturge907.300010
T. Arconte746.000100
K. Lisbie667.200310
R. Leonard667.200001
L. Cundle247.201020
T. Crama246.700100
M. Sykes166.600000

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Millwall4-2-3-1

  1. 34F. Marschall6.6
  1. 18R. Leonard7.2
  2. 6C. Taylor7.5
  3. 5J. Cooper (c)7.2
  4. 3Z. Sturge7.3
  1. 49D. Mazou-Sacko6.9
  2. 14J. Metcalfe7.2
  1. 22K. Lisbie7.2
  2. 13L. Dykes6.2
  3. 10C. Neghli8.3
  1. 7T. Arconte6.0
  1. 10C. Lang6.7
  2. 9J. Erabi6.3
  1. 7A. Devine6.6
  1. 3A. Vukčević7.0
  2. 15J. Thompson (c)6.7
  3. 27L. Leroy7.2
  4. 4H. Clarke6.6
  1. 16A. Hughes6.3
  2. 14J. Storey6.9
  3. 24O. Offiah7.2
  1. 1D. Iversen7.0

Preston3-4-1-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Preston · Bench

Coach: Graham Alexander

Millwall · Bench

Coach: Alex Neil

Key players

Prestonavailable

  1. D. Iversen · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Devine · Midfielder688 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. H. Clarke · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Millwallavailable

  1. C. Taylor · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. J. Cooper · Defender712 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. Z. Sturge · Defender687 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Millwall the most probability, 25.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Millwall · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Millwall · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Preston · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Preston +1.9, draw +0.7, Millwall -2.6 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (2 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (611 → 1,631), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (28 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 9 Oct 2026), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 5 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Millwall. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 51.2%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.670, Brier 0.358 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Preston16.4
Millwall75.0
Preston — 16.495% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 15% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Millwall — 75.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 25% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 10 Oct, 14:31 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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