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Picked from 21 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Nassaji v Zob Ahan

NassajiA. M. Sarabadani 82′
1–1FT · HT 0–1
Zob AhanR. Jafari 19′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 55.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.054 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.50 – 0.34⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–0⁩ 45.2%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 19.6%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 9.5%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 5.5%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.1.0 · v1 computed 01 Oct, 13:30 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 30 Sept on 221 matches since Aug 2025 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 13:30Kick-off
  2. 19′Goal · Zob AhanR. Jafari · (assist M. Ghaed Rahmati)
  3. 30′Yellow card · Zob AhanA. Ghaderi
  4. 39′VAR · Nassaji · Goal disallowedA. M. Sarabadani
  5. 82′Goal · NassajiA. M. Sarabadani · (assist A. Aarabi)
  6. 90+3′Yellow card · Zob AhanJ. Alimohammadi
Substitutions (9)
  1. 68′Substitution · NassajiF. Emamali on · P. Rezazadeh off
  2. 68′Substitution · NassajiF. Najafi on · J. Aghaeipour off
  3. 68′Substitution · Zob AhanA. Azadmanesh on · P. Mokhtari off
  4. 68′Substitution · Zob AhanJ. Alimohammadi on · A. Jeddi off
  5. 77′Substitution · NassajiA. Mohammadnejad on · A. Nasiri off
  6. 77′Substitution · Zob AhanM. Mohammadi on · R. Jafari off
  7. 77′Substitution · Zob AhanA. Kazemi on · M. Ghaed Rahmati off
  8. 89′Substitution · Zob AhanA. Eslami on · O. Latifi off
  9. 90′Substitution · NassajiY. Barajeh on · A. Sadeghi off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-upsdata delayed

Nassaji

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Zob Ahan

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Nassaji · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Zob Ahan · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Nassajinot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Zob Ahannot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives a draw the most probability, 26.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Nassaji · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Nassaji · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Nassaji · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 55.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.597, Brier 0.310 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Nassaji44.2
Zob Ahan42.3
Nassaji — 44.275% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 24 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Zob Ahan — 42.375% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, rest, travel and schedule and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 28% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 30 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 01 Oct, 13:30 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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