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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Utrecht v PEC Zwolle

UtrechtS. van Duijn 90+1′
1–1FT · HT 0–0
PEC ZwolleE. Sørensen 72′
Where to watch

· Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Martijn Vos
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
  • Referee: Martijn Vos
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 20.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.207 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.34 – 1.18⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.66 – 0.95⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.6%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 7.5%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 6.3%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 19 Oct, 01:00 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 18 Oct on 911 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:30Kick-off
  2. 26′Yellow card · UtrechtO. Agougil
  3. 72′Goal · PEC ZwolleE. Sørensen · (assist T. Oosting)
  4. 76′Yellow card · PEC ZwolleG. van der Wal
  5. 87′Yellow card · PEC ZwolleT. Sommer
  6. 89′Yellow card · UtrechtJ. van Overeem
  7. 90+1′Goal · UtrechtS. van Duijn
Substitutions (8)
  1. 45′Substitution · PEC ZwolleE. Sørensen on · D. Mbayo off
  2. 62′Substitution · UtrechtA. Blake on · N. Vesterlund off
  3. 71′Substitution · PEC ZwolleJ. Bürger on · D. van der Haar off
  4. 74′Substitution · UtrechtS. van Duijn on · Y. Cathline off
  5. 74′Substitution · UtrechtA. Stepanov on · Á. Alarcón off
  6. 83′Substitution · PEC ZwolleK. Kostons on · G. van der Wal off
  7. 83′Substitution · UtrechtN. Amrabat on · S. Horemans off
  8. 83′Substitution · UtrechtD. van den Berg on · O. Agougil off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 60%Possession40%
  • 1.66Expected goals (xG)0.95

Attack

  • 23Shots9
  • 5Shots on target5
  • 8Shots off target3
  • 10Blocked shots1
  • 7Corners2
  • 2Offsides2
  • 4Saves4

Passing

  • 511Passes353
  • 405Accurate passes253

Discipline

  • 11Fouls8
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Utrecht
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Zagre906.700121
D. De Wit906.200120
J. van Overeem906.300024
M. Didden907.100113
N. Panagiotou906.400022
S. Padt907.000000
O. Agougil836.700321
S. Horemans836.600101
Á. Alarcón746.600511
Y. Cathline746.300430
N. Vesterlund626.000100
A. Blake287.300410
A. Stepanov166.500100
S. van Duijn168.210112
D. van den Berg75.900001
N. Amrabat76.400001
PEC Zwolle
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
J. Schendelaar906.900000
N. Viergever906.300102
O. Aertssen906.500002
R. Thomas906.400110
S. Graves906.900012
S. van Hooijdonk906.000100
T. Oosting907.001110
T. Sommer906.700031
G. van der Wal836.100104
D. van der Haar716.300101
D. Mbayo456.400020
E. Sørensen457.510300
J. Bürger196.200001
K. Kostons76.600000

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Utrecht
PlayerxGxAxGOT
Y. Cathline0.450.090.07
A. Blake0.190.030.06
Á. Alarcón0.120.080.06
O. Agougil0.100.240.23
D. De Wit0.090.06–
S. van Duijn0.090.000.20
A. Zagre0.080.04–
N. Vesterlund0.060.00–
M. Didden0.050.01–
S. Horemans0.050.03–
D. van den Berg–0.00–
J. van Overeem–0.13–
N. Panagiotou–0.07–
N. Amrabat–0.00–
S. Padt–0.01–
PEC Zwolle
PlayerxGxAxGOT
E. Sørensen0.460.000.21
S. van Hooijdonk0.210.040.31
G. van der Wal0.070.070.12
N. Viergever0.060.01–
D. van der Haar0.050.000.05
T. Oosting0.030.46–
R. Thomas0.010.360.04
D. Mbayo–0.03–
J. Bürger–0.18–
J. Schendelaar–0.00–
K. Kostons–0.01–
O. Aertssen–0.03–
S. Graves–0.01–
T. Sommer–0.24–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

PEC Zwolle4-2-3-1

  1. 1Schendelaar6.9
  1. 3Aertssen6.5
  2. 28Graves6.9
  3. 24Viergever6.3
  4. 33van der HaarOff 71′6.3
  1. 30Thomas6.4
  2. 8SommerBooked 87′6.7
  1. 37van der WalBooked 76′ · Off 83′6.1
  2. 25Oosting7.0
  3. 11MbayoOff 45′6.4
  1. 17van Hooijdonk6.0
  1. 20De Wit6.2
  1. 11AlarcónOff 74′6.6
  2. 10CathlineOff 74′6.3
  3. 23VesterlundOff 62′6.0
  1. 38AgougilBooked 26′ · Off 83′6.7
  2. 8van OvereemBooked 89′6.3
  1. 92Zagre6.7
  2. 5Panagiotou6.4
  3. 3Didden7.1
  4. 2HoremansOff 83′6.6
  1. 22Padt7.0

Utrecht4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Utrecht · Bench

Coach: Anthony Correia

PEC Zwolle · Bench

Coach: Mirjam Clifford

Key players

Utrechtavailable

  1. D. De Wit · Forward775 min in 9 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. A. Zagre · Midfielder742 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Horemans · Defender725 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

PEC Zwolleavailable

  1. N. Viergever · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Schendelaar · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Graves · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Utrecht the most probability, 41.2 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Utrecht · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Utrecht · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Utrecht · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 18 Oct 2026), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 14 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 20.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.564, Brier 1.040 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Utrecht41.3
PEC Zwolle22.2
Utrecht — 41.395% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 36% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 64% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

PEC Zwolle — 22.295% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 21% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 19% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 19 Oct, 01:00 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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