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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Sheffield United v Lincoln

Sheffield UnitedP. Bamford 43′, 77′ · T. Chong 52′
3–0FT · HT 1–0
Lincoln
Where to watch

· Bramall Lane, Sheffield

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Josh Smith
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Bramall Lane, Sheffield
  • Referee: Josh Smith
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Sheffield United⁩ win. The model gave it 36.2%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.240 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.95 – 0.78⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.68 – 1.39⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–0⁩ 19.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 15.3%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 14.7%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 12.3%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 8.0%

⁦3–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 10 Oct, 14:31 UK time, 28 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 9 Oct on 1,631 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 15′Yellow card · Sheffield UnitedS. McCallum
  3. 26′Yellow card · LincolnC. McGrandles
  4. 39′Yellow card · Sheffield UnitedL. Kitching
  5. 43′Goal · Sheffield UnitedP. Bamford · (assist S. McCallum)
  6. 52′Goal · Sheffield UnitedT. Chong · (assist J. Rothwell)
  7. 67′Yellow card · Sheffield UnitedJ. Tanganga
  8. 67′Yellow card · LincolnD. Elerewe
  9. 75′Yellow card · Sheffield UnitedS. Peck
  10. 76′Yellow card · LincolnT. Bayliss
  11. 77′Goal · Sheffield UnitedP. Bamford · (assist B. Brereton Díaz)
Substitutions (10)
  1. 62′Substitution · LincolnY. Emre Konak on · C. McGrandles off
  2. 62′Substitution · LincolnC. Ogbene on · R. Towler off
  3. 62′Substitution · LincolnM. Ladefoged on · F. Draper off
  4. 73′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedM. McGuinness on · H. Choudhury off
  5. 78′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedR. Donovan on · T. Chong off
  6. 78′Substitution · LincolnC. Elder on · A. Reach off
  7. 79′Substitution · LincolnT. Hamer on · D. Jefferies off
  8. 84′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedR. One on · B. Brereton Díaz off
  9. 85′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedJ. Riedewald on · J. Rothwell off
  10. 85′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedT. Campbell on · T. Cannon off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 56%Possession44%
  • 0.68Expected goals (xG)1.39

Attack

  • 10Shots12
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 2Shots off target5
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 2Corners2
  • 2Offsides1
  • 3Saves2

Passing

  • 475Passes363
  • 376Accurate passes247
  • 79%Pass accuracy68%

Discipline

  • 14Fouls17
  • 4Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Sheffield United
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
J. Tanganga907.200012
L. Kitching907.200001
M. Cooper907.600000
P. Bamford909.020200
S. McCallum907.701012
S. Peck906.900222
J. Rothwell856.301210
T. Cannon856.300111
B. Brereton Díaz847.201212
T. Chong788.010111
H. Choudhury737.200002
M. McGuinness177.300000
R. Donovan126.700000
R. One106.700000
J. Riedewald96.300000
T. Campbell96.500000
Lincoln
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. House907.200103
D. Elerewe906.200101
G. Wickens905.300000
R. Street907.900111
S. Bradley906.300000
T. Bayliss906.300001
D. Jefferies796.900010
A. Reach786.900112
C. McGrandles626.200100
F. Draper626.300101
R. Towler626.500011
C. Ogbene286.900010
M. Ladefoged286.000300
Y. Emre Konak286.300000
C. Elder127.200020
T. Hamer116.900011

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

Lincoln3-4-2-1

  1. 1Wickens5.3
  1. 25ElereweBooked 67′6.2
  2. 15Bradley (c)6.3
  3. 6TowlerOff 62′6.5
  1. 16JefferiesOff 79′6.9
  2. 8BaylissBooked 76′6.3
  3. 14McGrandlesBooked 26′ · Off 62′6.2
  4. 3ReachOff 78′6.9
  1. 17Street7.9
  2. 18House7.2
  1. 34DraperOff 62′6.3
  1. 9CannonOff 85′6.3
  1. 22Brereton DíazOff 84′7.2
  2. 45BamfordGoal 43′ · Goal 77′9.0
  3. 19ChongGoal 52′ · Off 78′8.0
  1. 42PeckBooked 75′6.9
  2. 7RothwellOff 85′6.3
  1. 3McCallumBooked 15′7.7
  2. 15KitchingBooked 39′7.2
  3. 5Tanganga (c)Booked 67′7.2
  4. 8ChoudhuryOff 73′7.2
  1. 1Cooper7.6

Sheffield United4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sheffield United · Bench

Coach: C. Wilder

Lincoln · Bench

Coach: Tom Shaw

Key players

Sheffield Unitedavailable

  1. J. Tanganga · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Cooper · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Peck · Midfielder692 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Lincolnavailable

  1. D. Elerewe · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. G. Wickens · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. C. McGrandles · Midfielder680 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: a draw is ahead by 0.5 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Sheffield United · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Lincoln · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Lincoln · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Sheffield United +0.2, draw -0.3, Lincoln +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    5 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (2 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (611 → 1,631), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (28 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 9 Oct 2026), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 5 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–0: Sheffield United. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 36.2%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.016, Brier 0.615 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Sheffield United52.6
Lincoln63.9
Sheffield United — 52.695% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 28% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 42% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Lincoln — 63.995% measured

Driven mostly by venue effect, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 70% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 10 Oct, 14:31 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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