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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Celtic v Hearts

CelticK. Tierney 7′ · B. Nygren 10′, 83′ · C. Osmand 36′, 38′ · M. Baur 45′ · C. Durán 49′
7–1FT · HT 5–1
HeartsL. Mendy 41′
Where to watch

· Celtic Park, Glasgow

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: D. Dickinson
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Celtic Park, Glasgow
  • Referee: D. Dickinson
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Celtic⁩ win. The model gave it 61.4%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.089 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.97 – 0.93⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦4.16 – 1.20⁩
Goals
⁦7 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.7%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.3%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 7.0%

⁦7–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 12 Oct, 15:05 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 681 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 7′Goal · CelticK. Tierney · (assist L. Scales)
  3. 10′Goal · CelticB. Nygren · (assist D. Murray)
  4. 34′Yellow card · HeartsC. Miller
  5. 36′Goal · CelticC. Osmand · (assist C. Durán)
  6. 38′Goal · CelticC. Osmand · (assist C. Durán)
  7. 41′Goal · HeartsL. Mendy · (assist J. McPake)
  8. 45′Goal · CelticM. Baur · (assist B. Nygren)
  9. 46′Substitution · CelticJota on · C. Osmand off
  10. 46′Substitution · HeartsT. Magnusson on · O. McEntee off
  11. 49′Yellow card · CelticJota
  12. 49′Goal · CelticC. Durán · (assist K. Tierney)
  13. 51′Yellow card · CelticM. Baur
  14. 52′Yellow card · CelticC. Donovan
  15. 54′Substitution · HeartsS. Kerjota on · J. McPake off
  16. 54′Substitution · HeartsR. Mato on · C. Miller off
  17. 60′Substitution · CelticA. Oxlade-Chamberlain on · C. McGregor off
  18. 60′Substitution · CelticL. Emenalo on · K. Tierney off
  19. 60′Substitution · CelticK. Høgh on · C. Durán off
  20. 70′Substitution · CelticJ. Forrest on · H. Hassan off
  21. 71′Substitution · HeartsA. Ba-Sy on · C. Braga off
  22. 83′Goal · CelticB. Nygren · (assist K. Høgh)
  23. 84′Substitution · HeartsJ. Wilson on · S. Sabri Guendouz off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots8
  • 6Corners3
  • 4.16Expected goals (xG)1.20
  • 17Fouls8
  • 0Offsides1
  • 87%Pass accuracy87%
  • 491Passes525
  • 424Accurate passes456
  • 48%Possession52%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Saves3
  • 18Shots20
  • 5Shots off target7
  • 10Shots on target5
  • 3Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Celtic
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Nygren909.421541
C. Donovan906.200105
D. Murray907.401023
L. Scales907.601012
M. Baur906.610103
V. Sinisalo907.400000
H. Hassan706.200210
C. McGregor606.700000
C. Durán609.512521
K. Tierney608.111122
C. Osmand458.820212
Jota456.500001
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain306.400101
K. Høgh306.801010
L. Emenalo306.100001
J. Forrest205.900000
Hearts
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Reus905.900000
J. McCart904.900300
J. Altena906.400021
L. Mendy907.110211
M. Fagan-Walcott906.200011
S. Kingsley905.500200
S. Sabri Guendouz846.100113
C. Braga716.400420
C. Miller546.000114
J. McPake546.701130
O. McEntee456.600100
T. Magnusson456.200113
R. Mato366.600302
S. Kerjota367.000123
A. Ba-Sy196.500010
J. Wilson66.300000

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Hearts4-4-1-1

  1. 1B. Reus5.9
  1. 23J. Altena6.4
  2. 64M. Fagan-Walcott6.2
  3. 5J. McCart4.9
  4. 3S. Kingsley5.5
  1. 7C. Miller6.0
  2. 78L. Mendy7.1
  3. 6O. McEntee6.6
  4. 15J. McPake6.7
  1. 19S. Sabri Guendouz6.1
  1. 10C. Braga6.4
  1. 11C. Durán9.5
  1. 19C. Osmand8.8
  2. 8B. Nygren9.4
  3. 23H. Hassan6.2
  1. 22M. Baur6.6
  2. 42C. McGregor6.7
  1. 63K. Tierney8.1
  2. 5L. Scales7.6
  3. 47D. Murray7.4
  4. 51C. Donovan6.2
  1. 1V. Sinisalo7.4

Celtic4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Celtic · Bench

Coach: Martin O'Neill

Hearts · Bench

Coach: Wouter Vrancken

Key players

Celticavailable

  1. C. McGregor · Midfielder630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. V. Sinisalo · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. C. Donovan · Defender593 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Heartsavailable

  1. B. Reus · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. C. Braga · Midfielder655 min in 8 matches · 3 goals · 2 assists
  3. J. Altena · Defender583 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Celtic the most probability, 39.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Celtic · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Celtic · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Celtic · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Celtic -0.1, draw +0.1, Hearts 0.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (684 → 681), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 7–1: Celtic. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 61.4%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.488, Brier 0.225 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Celtic88.6
Hearts79.1
Celtic — 88.695% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 89% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 89% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 89% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Hearts — 79.195% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 8 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 36% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 15:05 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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