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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 3

Ferencváros v Torreense

Ferencváros
4–1FT · HT 1–1
Torreense
Where to watch

· Groupama Aréna, Budapest

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Jerome Brisard
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Groupama Aréna, Budapest
  • Referee: Jerome Brisard
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Ferencváros⁩ win. The model gave it 65.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.070 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.22 – 0.95⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.16 – 0.72⁩
Goals
⁦4 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.3%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 7.6%

⁦4–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 16 Oct, 17:50 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 15 Oct on 15,614 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:45Kick-off
  2. 9′Yellow card · FerencvárosK. Zachariassen
  3. 17′Yellow card · TorreenseA. Alfaro
  4. 19′Yellow card · TorreenseJ. Mutombo
  5. 20′Goal · FerencvárosDele
  6. 23′Goal · TorreenseM. Pozo · (assist J. Vázquez)
  7. 58′Goal · FerencvárosM. Gómez · (assist V. Birmančević)
  8. 63′Substitution · TorreenseD. Jean on · A. Alfaro off
  9. 63′Substitution · TorreenseN. Jatta on · K. Zoabi off
  10. 68′Yellow card · FerencvárosDele
  11. 74′Substitution · TorreenseM. Abubakari on · M. Drammeh off
  12. 74′Substitution · TorreenseL. Quintero on · M. Pozo off
  13. 75′Substitution · FerencvárosH. Maïga on · D. Arzani off
  14. 75′Substitution · FerencvárosL. Joseph on · Dele off
  15. 76′Yellow card · FerencvárosM. Corbu
  16. 80′Own goal · FerencvárosM. Diadie
  17. 81′Substitution · TorreenseA. Simões on · J. Marques off
  18. 87′Substitution · FerencvárosK. Lisztes on · V. Birmančević off
  19. 87′Substitution · FerencvárosJ. Levi on · K. Zachariassen off
  20. 89′Goal · FerencvárosK. Lisztes · (assist L. Joseph)
  21. 90+1′Yellow card · FerencvárosO. Nagy

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 2Blocked shots1
  • 7Corners4
  • 2.16Expected goals (xG)0.72
  • 18Fouls11
  • 2Offsides1
  • 439Passes321
  • 354Accurate passes236
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves2
  • 14Shots8
  • 7Shots off target3
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 4Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Ferencváros
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
Á. Nagy907.000011
C. O'Dowda906.000210
D. Radnóti906.300000
M. Gómez907.710202
N. Zohoré906.300100
O. Nagy906.200102
K. Zachariassen876.000002
V. Birmančević877.701122
D. Arzani756.100010
Dele758.110510
M. Corbu336.200010
H. Maïga155.900000
L. Joseph157.001110
J. Levi36.500000
K. Lisztes37.410100
Torreense
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Oudrhiri906.000000
J. Vázquez906.701031
J. Mutombo905.500001
L. Paes905.500000
M. Diadie905.100102
V. Feltes906.700001
J. Marques816.000111
M. Pozo747.210201
M. Drammeh746.600321
A. Alfaro635.100002
K. Zoabi635.900011
D. Jean276.100001
N. Jatta275.900000
L. Quintero166.300000
M. Abubakari166.300100
A. Simões95.800000

xG (Highlightly)limited

Ferencváros
PlayerxGxAxGOT
K. Lisztes0.530.000.90
M. Gómez0.320.010.16
N. Zohoré0.310.01–
C. O'Dowda0.260.35–
V. Birmančević0.070.400.05
L. Joseph0.060.19–
O. Nagy0.010.14–
Á. Nagy–0.24–
D. Arzani–0.47–
D. Radnóti–0.00–
H. Maïga–0.01–
J. Levi–0.00–
K. Zachariassen–0.05–
M. Corbu–0.03–
Torreense
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Pozo0.250.000.94
M. Drammeh0.190.010.11
M. Abubakari0.150.01–
J. Marques0.070.07–
M. Diadie0.070.06–
A. Alfaro–0.00–
A. Oudrhiri–0.01–
A. Simões–0.00–
D. Jean–0.00–
J. Vázquez–0.17–
J. Mutombo–0.01–
K. Zoabi–0.01–
L. Paes–0.00–
L. Quintero–0.00–
N. Jatta–0.00–
V. Feltes–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Torreense4-2-3-1

  1. 1L. Paes5.5
  1. 45J. Mutombo5.5
  2. 5M. Diadie5.1
  3. 4V. Feltes6.7
  4. 23J. Vázquez6.7
  1. 6A. Oudrhiri6.0
  2. 8A. Alfaro5.1
  1. 11M. Pozo7.2
  2. 33J. Marques6.0
  3. 19K. Zoabi5.9
  1. 17M. Drammeh6.6

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Ferencváros4-2-3-1

Only 10 of the eleven starters are named, so this line-up is a list; an unnamed place is not filled in.

Ferencváros · Bench

Coach: B. Borbely

Torreense · Bench

Coach: Luís Tralhão

Key players

Ferencvároslimited

  1. T. Raemaekers · Defender360 min in 4 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. Cadu · Defender359 min in 4 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Corbu · Midfielder359 min in 4 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 4 of 10 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Torreenseavailable

  1. A. Alfaro · Midfielder180 min in 2 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Oudrhiri · Midfielder180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. V. Feltes · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 2 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Ferencváros the most probability, 45.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Ferencváros · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Ferencváros · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Ferencváros · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Ferencváros -1.2, draw +0.3, Torreense +0.9 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 4–1: Ferencváros. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 65.6%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.421, Brier 0.178 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.