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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Bristol City v Sheffield United

Bristol City
0–1FT · HT 0–1
Sheffield UnitedO. Arblaster 5′
Where to watch

· Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Benjamin Speedie
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
  • Referee: Benjamin Speedie
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Sheffield United⁩ win. The model gave it 29.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.332 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.47 – 1.21⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.67 – 1.41⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.7%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.3%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.4%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Early pre-match ·
  6. v6Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v6 computed 17 Oct, 14:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 16 Oct on 1,619 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 5′Goal · Sheffield UnitedO. Arblaster
  3. 90+6′Yellow card · Bristol CityB. De Keersmaecker
  4. 90+10′Yellow card · Sheffield UnitedP. Bamford
Substitutions (11)
  1. 46′Substitution · Bristol CityJ. Wallace on · G. Tanner off
  2. 46′Substitution · Bristol CityE. Adebayo on · S. Twine off
  3. 69′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedS. McCallum on · T. Chong off
  4. 69′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedP. Bamford on · J. Ayew off
  5. 72′Substitution · Bristol CityB. De Keersmaecker on · G. Yah off
  6. 78′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedS. Peck on · O. Arblaster off
  7. 79′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedR. One on · B. Brereton Díaz off
  8. 79′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedR. Donovan on · M. McGuinness off
  9. 85′Substitution · Bristol CityT. Horvat on · J. Knight off
  10. 85′Substitution · Bristol CityS. Bell on · Y. Hirakawa off
  11. 87′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedJ. Baptiste on · T. Cannon off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 53%Possession47%
  • 0.67Expected goals (xG)1.41

Attack

  • 7Shots16
  • 1Shots on target2
  • 3Shots off target7
  • 3Blocked shots7
  • 3Corners5
  • 1Offsides2
  • 1Saves1

Passing

  • 411Passes370
  • 267Accurate passes231
  • 65%Pass accuracy62%

Discipline

  • 16Fouls10
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Bristol City
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Pring906.300001
D. Ballard905.900100
L. McNally907.300004
R. Cardines906.900113
R. Atkinson907.900000
S. Tickle905.900000
J. Knight856.200002
Y. Hirakawa856.700112
G. Yah726.900111
E. Adebayo456.500010
G. Tanner456.300000
J. Wallace456.900103
S. Twine456.300002
B. De Keersmaecker187.200000
S. Bell156.300100
T. Horvat156.700001
Sheffield United
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
H. Burrows906.600000
J. Tanganga906.900101
K. Phillips907.500012
L. Kitching907.900313
M. Cooper907.000000
T. Cannon876.300321
B. Brereton Díaz796.900011
M. McGuinness797.200111
O. Arblaster787.910110
J. Ayew696.000103
T. Chong696.300011
P. Bamford216.200000
S. McCallum217.300101
J. Baptiste136.300000
S. Peck126.600001
R. Donovan117.000000
R. One116.300200

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

Sheffield United4-4-2

  1. 1Cooper7.0
  1. 5Tanganga (c)6.9
  2. 25McGuinnessOff 79′7.2
  3. 15Kitching7.9
  4. 14Burrows6.6
  1. 22Brereton DíazOff 79′6.9
  2. 27Phillips7.5
  3. 4ArblasterGoal 5′ · Off 78′7.9
  4. 19ChongOff 69′6.3
  1. 9CannonOff 87′6.3
  2. 10AyewOff 69′6.0
  1. 23Ballard5.9
  1. 7HirakawaOff 85′6.7
  2. 10TwineOff 46′6.3
  3. 21Cardines6.9
  1. 27YahOff 72′6.9
  2. 12Knight (c)Off 85′6.2
  1. 3Pring6.3
  2. 5Atkinson7.9
  3. 15McNally7.3
  4. 19TannerOff 46′6.3
  1. 1Tickle5.9

Bristol City4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Bristol City · Bench

Coach: Roy Hodgson

Sheffield United · Bench

Coach: C. Wilder

Key players

Bristol Cityavailable

  1. S. Tickle · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Knight · Midfielder877 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. R. Cardines · Defender757 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 6 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Sheffield Unitedavailable

  1. J. Tanganga · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Cooper · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Peck · Midfielder872 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Bristol City the most probability, 11.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Bristol City · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Sheffield United · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Sheffield United · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (9 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,631 → 1,630), history from (5 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,630 → 1,619), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 13 Oct 2026), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 9 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (13 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026), history from (9 Oct 2023 → 10 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  6. v6 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 16 Oct 2026), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 12 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Sheffield United. Version 6 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 29.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.208, Brier 0.746 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Bristol City42.9
Sheffield United43.9
Bristol City — 42.995% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 58% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Sheffield United — 43.995% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 28% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 22% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 58% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 17 Oct, 14:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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