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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 12

Portsmouth v Millwall

Portsmouth
2–1FT · HT 1–1
Millwall
Where to watch

· Fratton Park, Portsmouth

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Tom Reeves
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Fratton Park, Portsmouth
  • Referee: Tom Reeves
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Portsmouth⁩ win. The model gave it 30.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.328 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.20 – 1.45⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.75 – 0.84⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 7.5%

⁦2–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 24 Oct, 12:03 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 23 Oct on 1,643 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 12:30Kick-off
  2. 6′Goal · MillwallJ. Metcalfe
  3. 16′Own goal · PortsmouthL. Dykes
  4. 24′Yellow card · MillwallT. Crama
  5. 45′Yellow card · MillwallJ. Cooper
  6. 61′Substitution · PortsmouthE. Adams on · A. Segečić off
  7. 62′Substitution · PortsmouthT. Shade on · R. Kavuma-McQueen off
  8. 68′Substitution · MillwallR. Esse on · K. Lisbie off
  9. 68′Substitution · MillwallM. Ivanović on · L. Dykes off
  10. 71′Yellow card · PortsmouthM. Milovanović
  11. 72′Substitution · PortsmouthT. Waddingham on · M. Milovanović off
  12. 75′Substitution · MillwallR. Leonard on · T. Crama off
  13. 76′Substitution · MillwallA. Doughty on · L. Cundle off
  14. 82′Goal · PortsmouthT. Waddingham
  15. 87′Substitution · MillwallD. Kelly on · J. Metcalfe off
  16. 90+4′Yellow card · PortsmouthZ. Swanson

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots5
  • 5Corners5
  • 0.75Expected goals (xG)0.84
  • 12Fouls12
  • 1Offsides6
  • 69%Pass accuracy76%
  • 339Passes364
  • 234Accurate passes277
  • 48%Possession52%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 0Saves1
  • 7Shots10
  • 2Shots off target4
  • 2Shots on target1
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Portsmouth
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Kamara906.700000
I. Mohamed906.900004
M. Dia907.200001
M. Pack906.300100
N. Schmid905.500000
R. Poole907.300101
T. Devlin906.300103
Z. Swanson907.200004
M. Milovanović716.200100
R. Kavuma-McQueen627.200010
A. Segečić616.500000
E. Adams296.900011
T. Shade286.600101
T. Waddingham197.310120
Millwall
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Taylor907.000001
C. Neghli906.300302
D. Mazou-Sacko906.600002
J. Cooper905.700101
M. Crocombe905.900000
Z. Sturge906.700020
J. Metcalfe878.210123
L. Cundle766.600010
T. Crama756.500001
K. Lisbie686.700301
L. Dykes686.300110
M. Ivanović226.200000
R. Esse226.300002
R. Leonard156.300000
A. Doughty146.300000
D. Kelly86.900001

xG (Highlightly) available

Portsmouth
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Milovanović0.290.00–
T. Waddingham0.190.070.43
T. Shade0.140.030.09
T. Devlin0.080.01–
M. Pack0.070.01–
R. Poole0.050.00–
I. Mohamed0.020.01–
E. Adams0.010.01–
A. Kamara–0.01–
A. Segečić–0.00–
M. Dia–0.00–
N. Schmid–0.00–
R. Kavuma-McQueen–0.38–
Z. Swanson–0.23–
Millwall
PlayerxGxAxGOT
K. Lisbie0.270.00–
J. Metcalfe0.230.040.74
C. Neghli0.150.03–
L. Dykes0.020.01–
J. Cooper0.010.01–
A. Doughty–0.06–
C. Taylor–0.01–
D. Mazou-Sacko–0.02–
L. Cundle–0.01–
M. Crocombe–0.00–
R. Esse–0.00–
R. Leonard–0.00–
T. Crama–0.01–
Z. Sturge–0.11–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Millwall4-2-3-1

  1. 15M. Crocombe5.9
  1. 4T. Crama6.5
  2. 6C. Taylor7.0
  3. 5J. Cooper (c)5.7
  4. 3Z. Sturge6.7
  1. 14J. Metcalfe8.2
  2. 49D. Mazou-Sacko6.6
  1. 10C. Neghli6.3
  2. 25L. Cundle6.6
  3. 22K. Lisbie6.7
  1. 13L. Dykes6.3
  1. 29M. Milovanović6.2
  1. 25R. Kavuma-McQueen7.2
  2. 10A. Segečić6.5
  3. 11A. Kamara6.7
  1. 37I. Mohamed6.9
  2. 7M. Pack (c)6.3
  1. 22Z. Swanson7.2
  2. 55M. Dia7.2
  3. 5R. Poole7.3
  4. 24T. Devlin6.3
  1. 1N. Schmid5.5

Portsmouth4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Portsmouth · Bench

Coach: J. Mousinho

Millwall · Bench

Coach: Alex Neil

Key players

Portsmouthavailable

  1. A. Segečić · Midfielder925 min in 11 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. A. Kamara · Midfielder924 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Pack · Midfielder735 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Millwallavailable

  1. C. Taylor · Defender990 min in 11 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. J. Cooper · Defender982 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. Z. Sturge · Defender957 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Millwall the most probability, 11.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Millwall · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Millwall · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Portsmouth · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 17 Oct 2026), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 13 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Portsmouth +2.1, draw -0.7, Millwall -1.4 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 20 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,619 → 1,643), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 16 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Portsmouth -0.1, draw 0.0, Millwall +0.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (20 Oct 2026 → 23 Oct 2026), history from (16 Oct 2023 → 19 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: Portsmouth. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 30.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.173, Brier 0.728 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Portsmouth41.9
Millwall63.6
Portsmouth — 41.995% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, rest, travel and schedule and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 42% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 62% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 30% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 4 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Millwall — 63.695% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 24 Oct, 12:03 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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