Skip to content

Moments that matter

0 live

Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
← ScoresTimes: UK time

Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Standard Liège v Charleroi

Standard Liège
0–1FT · HT 0–0
CharleroiC. Keita 58′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Simon Bourdeaud'hui
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: Simon Bourdeaud'hui
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Charleroi⁩ win. The model gave it 35.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.267 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.14 – 1.16⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.78 – 0.99⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 11.0%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.7%

⁦0–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 11 Oct, 12:02 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 10 Oct on 925 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 12:30Kick-off
  2. 36′Yellow card · Standard LiègeI. Hautekiet
  3. 45′Yellow card · CharleroiA. Boukamir
  4. 58′Goal · CharleroiC. Keita · (assist P. Pflücke)
  5. 65′Substitution · Standard LiègeA. Zeqiri on · C. Nielsen off
  6. 65′Substitution · Standard LiègeS. Drammeh on · B. Nguene off
  7. 71′Substitution · CharleroiT. Rowe on · P. Pflücke off
  8. 77′Substitution · Standard LiègeB. Nsimba on · D. Eckert Ayensa off
  9. 77′Substitution · CharleroiI. Ismaël Cissé on · A. Boukamir off
  10. 77′Substitution · CharleroiG. Nawata on · F. Mbemba off
  11. 84′Substitution · Standard LiègeM. Ilaimaharitra on · A. Trouillet off
  12. 84′Substitution · Standard LiègeR. Fosso on · R. Touzghar off
  13. 86′Substitution · CharleroiM. Sow on · J. Napoleon Romsaas off
  14. 90+5′Red card · Standard LiègeG. Mortensen

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 4Blocked shots2
  • 6Corners8
  • 1.78Expected goals (xG)0.99
  • 17Fouls8
  • 1Offsides2
  • 79%Pass accuracy81%
  • 415Passes506
  • 328Accurate passes411
  • 45%Possession55%
  • 1Red cards0
  • 3Saves2
  • 16Shots10
  • 10Shots off target4
  • 2Shots on target4
  • 1Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Standard Liège
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Abid906.900120
G. Mortensen906.500––1
I. Hautekiet906.300––1
I. Karamoko907.2001–2
M. Fossey906.900–31
M. Epolo908.300––0
A. Trouillet847.200––2
R. Touzghar846.200210
D. Eckert Ayensa776.700211
B. Nguene656.200–10
C. Nielsen656.3001–1
A. Zeqiri256.7002–0
S. Drammeh256.300210
B. Nsimba136.200––0
M. Ilaimaharitra126.900–11
R. Fosso126.7001–0
Charleroi
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Ousou907.9001–3
A. Scheidler906.900210
C. Keita908.310113
K. Van Den Kerkhof907.3001–2
M. Nzita907.0001–1
M. Koné907.700––0
Y. Khalifi906.900––0
J. Napoleon Romsaas867.300210
A. Boukamir777.300––3
F. Mbemba777.200111
P. Pflücke718.301–20
T. Rowe196.900––0
G. Nawata136.700––0
I. Ismaël Cissé136.900––1
M. Sow106.600––0

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Charleroi4-2-3-1

  1. 30M. Koné7.7
  1. 3K. Van Den Kerkhof7.3
  2. 4A. Ousou (c)7.9
  3. 95C. Keita8.3
  4. 24M. Nzita7.0
  1. 6A. Boukamir7.3
  2. 18Y. Khalifi6.9
  1. 14P. Pflücke8.3
  2. 8J. Napoleon Romsaas7.3
  3. 20F. Mbemba7.2
  1. 21A. Scheidler6.9
  1. 11A. Abid6.9
  2. 10D. Eckert Ayensa6.7
  3. 17B. Nguene6.2
  1. 84R. Touzghar6.2
  2. 22A. Trouillet7.2
  3. 94C. Nielsen6.3
  1. 3G. Mortensen6.5
  2. 25I. Hautekiet6.3
  3. 20I. Karamoko7.2
  4. 13M. Fossey (c)6.9
  1. 1M. Epolo8.3

Standard Liège4-3-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Standard Liège · Bench

Coach: Vincent Euvrard

Charleroi · Bench

Coach: Mario Kohnen

Key players

Standard Liègeavailable

  1. A. Abid · Forward630 min in 7 matches · 3 goals · 2 assists
  2. C. Nielsen · Midfielder630 min in 7 matches · 2 goals · 3 assists
  3. I. Karamoko · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Charleroiavailable

  1. K. Van Den Kerkhof · Defender626 min in 7 matches · 2 goals · 2 assists
  2. M. Nzita · Defender608 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. Y. Khalifi · Midfielder607 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: Charleroi is ahead by 0.9 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Charleroi · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Charleroi · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Standard Liège · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Standard Liège -1.3, draw +3.4, Charleroi -2.1 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (3 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (336 → 926), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (29 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (926 → 925), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    Nothing the model reads changed between these two versions. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Charleroi. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 35.7%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.030, Brier 0.622 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Standard Liège58.4
Charleroi83.0
Standard Liège — 58.495% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 63% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 22 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 59% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Charleroi — 83.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 74% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 11 Oct, 12:02 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.