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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 14

West Brom v Southampton

West BromI. Price 22′
1–1FT · HT 1–0
SouthamptonS. Edozie 53′
Where to watch

· The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Josh Smith
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • The Hawthorns, West Bromwich
  • Referee: Josh Smith
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 27.2%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.147 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.97 – 1.47⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.51 – 1.40⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.9%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 9.1%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.1%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 03 Nov, 19:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 2 Nov on 1,634 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 22′Goal (penalty) · West BromI. Price
  3. 53′Goal · SouthamptonS. Edozie
  4. 61′Yellow card · West BromC. Styles
  5. 66′Yellow card · West BromR. Nzingoula
  6. 77′Yellow card · SouthamptonF. Downes
Substitutions (6)
  1. 45′Substitution · West BromN. Phillips on · G. Campbell off
  2. 71′Substitution · SouthamptonL. Dobbin on · D. Mubama off
  3. 71′Substitution · West BromA. Selland Heggebø on · F. Myhre off
  4. 71′Substitution · West BromH. Whitwell on · R. Nzingoula off
  5. 84′Substitution · West BromT. Bany on · J. Morgan off
  6. 88′Substitution · SouthamptonT. Fellows on · K. Matsuki off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 53%Possession47%
  • 2.51Expected goals (xG)1.40

Attack

  • 17Shots10
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 8Shots off target4
  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 3Corners5
  • 4Offsides1
  • 3Saves4

Passing

  • 581Passes509
  • 517Accurate passes438

Discipline

  • 13Fouls10
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

West Brom
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Pereira906.600001
C. Styles906.300122
C. Mepham906.800002
I. Price907.810523
J. Molumby907.200220
M. O'Leary907.000000
O. Diakité907.100213
J. Morgan846.300311
F. Myhre716.400001
R. Nzingoula715.900131
G. Campbell456.500000
N. Phillips456.500011
A. Selland Heggebø196.600100
H. Whitwell196.000003
T. Bany66.700211
Southampton
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Peretz907.300000
F. Azaz906.400211
F. Downes906.400122
J. Stephens906.800002
J. Bree906.600102
J. Ward-Prowse906.900002
K. Schlotterbeck906.800102
R. Manning906.700132
S. Edozie907.510103
K. Matsuki886.100115
D. Mubama716.500000
L. Dobbin196.000100
T. Fellows26.300101

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playerlimited

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

West Brom
PlayerxGxAxGOT
I. Price1.100.151.03
A. Selland Heggebø0.210.000.26
T. Bany0.120.21–
O. Diakité0.100.04–
C. Styles0.070.04–
J. Molumby0.060.480.08
R. Nzingoula0.040.18–
B. Pereira–0.03–
C. Mepham–0.01–
F. Myhre–0.01–
G. Campbell–0.00–
H. Whitwell–0.00–
M. O'Leary–0.00–
N. Phillips–0.04–
Southampton
PlayerxGxAxGOT
L. Dobbin0.47–0.42
S. Edozie0.450.020.95
F. Azaz0.140.350.18
J. Bree0.090.02–
K. Matsuki0.070.16–
R. Manning0.060.32–
T. Fellows0.050.00–
F. Downes0.020.18–
K. Schlotterbeck0.020.01–
D. Peretz–0.00–
D. Mubama–0.03–
J. Stephens–0.01–
J. Ward-Prowse–0.10–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Not shown: 2 players the source listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Southampton4-2-3-1

  1. 1Peretz7.3
  1. 14Bree6.6
  2. 5Stephens6.8
  3. 13Schlotterbeck6.8
  4. 3Manning6.7
  1. 30Ward-Prowse6.9
  2. 4DownesBooked 77′6.4
  1. 27MatsukiOff 88′6.1
  2. 10Azaz6.4
  3. 23EdozieGoal 53′7.5
  1. 28MubamaOff 71′6.5
  1. 7MyhreOff 71′6.4
  2. 11MorganOff 84′6.3
  1. 21PriceGoal 22′ (pen.)7.8
  2. 17Diakité7.1
  3. 8Molumby7.2
  4. 20NzingoulaBooked 66′ · Off 71′5.9
  1. 4StylesBooked 61′6.3
  2. 6CampbellOff 45′6.5
  3. 2Mepham6.8
  4. 18Pereira6.6
  1. 1O'Leary7.0

West Brom4-4-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

West Brom · Bench

Coach: J. Morrison

Southampton · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

West Bromavailable

  1. C. Styles · Defender1,170 min in 13 matches · 3 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. O'Leary · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. I. Price · Midfielder1,085 min in 13 matches · 4 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Southamptonavailable

  1. D. Peretz · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Bree · Defender1,124 min in 13 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. F. Azaz · Midfielder1,098 min in 13 matches · 3 goals · 5 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Southampton the most probability, 21.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Southampton · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Southampton · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours West Brom · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (26 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,645 → 1,633), history from (22 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · West Brom -1.4, draw +0.1, Southampton +1.3 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 2 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,633 → 1,634), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 29 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 27.2%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.303, Brier 0.824 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

West Brom55.1
Southampton84.7
West Brom — 55.195% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, rest, travel and schedule and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 87% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Southampton — 84.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 03 Nov, 19:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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