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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Swansea v West Ham

Swansea
0–1FT · HT 0–1
West HamD. Mukasa 34′
Where to watch

· Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Josh Smith
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
  • Referee: Josh Smith
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨West Ham⁩ win. The model gave it 42.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.225 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.71 – 1.91⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.05 – 1.15⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.3%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.5%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 7.1%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 5.3%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Early pre-match ·
  6. v6Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v6 computed 17 Oct, 14:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 16 Oct on 1,619 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 34′Goal · West HamD. Mukasa · (assist M. Kanté)
  3. 41′Yellow card · West HamD. Mukasa
  4. 81′Yellow card · West HamV. Castellanos
Substitutions (9)
  1. 56′Substitution · SwanseaS. Eustáquio on · J. Fulton off
  2. 57′Substitution · SwanseaJ. Eom on · J. Opoku off
  3. 61′Substitution · West HamV. Castellanos on · P. Felipe off
  4. 69′Substitution · West HamE. Austbø on · M. Kanté off
  5. 76′Substitution · SwanseaM. Widell on · G. Franco off
  6. 76′Substitution · SwanseaE. Just on · M. Kounfolo Yeo off
  7. 76′Substitution · SwanseaŽ. Vipotnik on · M. Stamenić off
  8. 84′Substitution · West HamT. Souček on · M. Solomon off
  9. 85′Substitution · West HamJ. Piroe on · D. Mukasa off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 69%Possession31%
  • 1.05Expected goals (xG)1.15

Attack

  • 11Shots9
  • 0Shots on target4
  • 7Shots off target4
  • 4Blocked shots1
  • 6Corners1
  • 2Offsides4
  • 3Saves0

Passing

  • 621Passes283
  • 525Accurate passes188
  • 85%Pass accuracy66%

Discipline

  • 9Fouls8
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Swansea
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Idah906.200201
B. Cabango906.300200
J. Tymon906.600021
L. Vigouroux906.900000
Ronald907.000103
S. Welsh907.500002
G. Franco766.300005
M. Stamenić766.200001
M. Kounfolo Yeo767.200011
J. Opoku576.200003
J. Opoku576.2–0––3
J. Fulton566.700102
S. Eustáquio346.200210
J. Eom336.600001
E. Just146.600100
M. Widell146.700010
Ž. Vipotnik146.500010
West Ham
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Engels907.500003
J. Bowen907.000210
J. Veltman907.300001
K. Mavropanos907.200001
M. Hermansen906.500000
M. Kilman907.300001
Morato907.900107
D. Mukasa857.210102
M. Solomon846.600101
M. Kanté697.201040
P. Felipe616.900203
V. Castellanos296.300010
E. Austbø216.600000
T. Souček126.600100
J. Piroe116.300110

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

West Ham4-2-3-1

  1. 1Hermansen6.5
  1. 34Veltman7.3
  2. 15Mavropanos7.2
  3. 3Kilman7.3
  4. 5Morato7.9
  1. 14MukasaGoal 34′ · Booked 41′ · Off 85′7.2
  2. 7Engels7.5
  1. 20Bowen (c)7.0
  2. 17KantéOff 69′7.2
  3. 10SolomonOff 84′6.6
  1. 19FelipeOff 61′6.9
  1. 30OpokuOff 57′6.2
  2. 33Idah6.2
  3. 49Kounfolo YeoOff 76′7.2
  1. 6StamenićOff 76′6.2
  2. 4FultonOff 56′6.7
  3. 17FrancoOff 76′6.3
  1. 14Tymon6.6
  2. 23Welsh7.5
  3. 5Cabango (c)6.3
  4. 35Ronald7.0
  1. 22Vigouroux6.9

Swansea4-3-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Swansea · Bench

Coach: Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos

West Ham · Bench

Coach: Nuno Espírito Santo

Key players

Swanseaavailable

  1. J. Tymon · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. L. Vigouroux · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Welsh · Defender805 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

West Hamavailable

  1. M. Kilman · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Hermansen · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. J. Bowen · Midfielder890 min in 10 matches · 6 goals · 5 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives West Ham the most probability, 8.1 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours West Ham · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours West Ham · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Swansea · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Swansea +0.1, draw 0.0, West Ham -0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (9 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,631 → 1,630), history from (5 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,630 → 1,619), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 13 Oct 2026), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 9 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (13 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026), history from (9 Oct 2023 → 10 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  6. v6 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 16 Oct 2026), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 12 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: West Ham. Version 6 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 42.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.864, Brier 0.508 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Swansea70.8
West Ham87.0
Swansea — 70.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 72% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 70% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 56% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

West Ham — 87.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 17 Oct, 14:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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