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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 4

Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille

Bayer Leverkusen
0–1FT · HT 0–0
MarseilleA. Gouiri 77′
Where to watch

· BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Orel Grinfeld
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen
  • Referee: Orel Grinfeld
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Marseille⁩ win. The model gave it 19.4%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.504 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.19 – 1.19⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.94 – 1.17⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 8.2%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.2%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 7.1%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 05 Nov, 19:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 4 Nov on 20,026 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 6′Yellow card · Bayer LeverkusenM. Gutiérrez
  3. 38′Yellow card · MarseilleI. Paixão
  4. 54′Yellow card · MarseilleU. Garcia
  5. 77′Goal · MarseilleA. Gouiri · (assist U. Garcia)
  6. 90′Yellow card · MarseilleT. Nnadi
Substitutions (8)
  1. 68′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenA. Moreira on · L. Vázquez off
  2. 68′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenE. Fernández on · R. Andrich off
  3. 71′Substitution · MarseilleT. Mmadi on · I. Paixão off
  4. 71′Substitution · MarseilleT. Nnadi on · G. Kondogbia off
  5. 79′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenM. Tillman on · I. Maza off
  6. 79′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenM. Culbreath on · J. Hofmann off
  7. 84′Substitution · MarseilleA. Koum Mbondo on · U. Garcia off
  8. 84′Substitution · MarseilleN. Maupay on · A. Gouiri off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticslimited

Match

  • 58%Possession42%
  • 0.94Expected goals (xG)1.17

Attack

  • 10Shots8
  • 3Shots on target2
  • 5Shots off target4
  • 2Blocked shots2
  • 6Corners2
  • 1Saves3

Passing

  • 702Passes522
  • 626Accurate passes458

Discipline

  • 7Fouls12
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Bayer Leverkusen
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. García907.200032
E. Tapsoba906.600211
F. Medina906.800001
J. Quansah907.000312
M. Flekken906.100000
M. Gutiérrez906.300110
P. Schick906.200211
I. Maza796.100105
J. Hofmann796.500010
L. Vázquez686.400010
R. Andrich686.700103
A. Moreira226.100000
E. Fernández226.700000
M. Tillman116.300000
M. Culbreath116.200000
Marseille
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Egan-Riley907.300111
H. Abdelli906.900001
J. de Lange906.100000
K. Bezahaf906.600003
N. Aguerd907.100102
P. Hojbjerg907.200011
T. Weah907.000111
A. Gouiri847.810300
U. Garcia846.201011
G. Kondogbia716.600102
I. Paixão716.000121
T. Mmadi196.500001
T. Nnadi196.900002
A. Koum Mbondo66.400000
N. Maupay66.500000

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playerlimited

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Bayer Leverkusen
PlayerxGxAxGOT
E. Tapsoba0.330.02–
P. Schick0.270.000.60
J. Quansah0.150.16–
I. Maza0.080.090.10
M. Gutiérrez0.050.30–
R. Andrich0.030.020.03
A. Moreira–0.03–
A. García–0.45–
E. Fernández–0.07–
F. Medina–0.05–
J. Hofmann–0.11–
L. Vázquez–0.05–
M. Tillman–0.02–
M. Flekken–0.00–
M. Culbreath–0.01–
Marseille
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Gouiri0.610.000.34
A. Koum Mbondo0.330.02–
I. Paixão0.100.06–
C. Egan-Riley0.080.01–
N. Aguerd0.050.01–
G. Kondogbia0.020.00–
T. Weah0.020.17–
H. Abdelli–0.01–
J. de Lange–0.00–
K. Bezahaf–0.01–
N. Maupay–0.00–
T. Mmadi–0.00–
T. Nnadi–0.00–
U. Garcia–0.01–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Not shown: 1 players the source listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Marseille4-1-4-1

  1. 12de Lange6.1
  1. 74Bezahaf6.6
  2. 4Egan-Riley7.3
  3. 21Aguerd7.1
  4. 25GarciaBooked 54′ · Off 84′6.2
  1. 23Hojbjerg7.2
  1. 22Weah7.0
  2. 19KondogbiaOff 71′6.6
  3. 8Abdelli6.9
  4. 14PaixãoBooked 38′ · Off 71′6.0
  1. 9GouiriGoal 77′ · Off 84′7.8
  1. 14Schick6.2
  1. 7HofmannOff 79′6.5
  2. 30MazaOff 79′6.1
  3. 17VázquezOff 68′6.4
  1. 8AndrichOff 68′6.7
  2. 24García7.2
  1. 3GutiérrezBooked 6′6.3
  2. 2Medina6.8
  3. 12Tapsoba6.6
  4. 4Quansah7.0
  1. 1Flekken6.1

Bayer Leverkusen4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Bayer Leverkusen · Bench

Coach: Carles Martínez

Marseille · Bench

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Key players

Bayer Leverkusenavailable

  1. L. Badé · Defender270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsDoubtful · Head Injury
  2. A. García · Midfielder242 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Tillman · Midfielder225 min in 3 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 3 matches played.

Marseilleavailable

  1. J. de Lange · Goalkeeper270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. K. Abdallah · Midfielder252 min in 3 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. H. Abdelli · Midfielder225 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 3 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the most probability, 39.2 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Bayer Leverkusen · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Bayer Leverkusen · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Bayer Leverkusen · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Bayer Leverkusen -0.5, draw +0.2, Marseille +0.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (28 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,022 → 19,987), history from (24 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,987 → 19,937), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Bayer Leverkusen +0.3, draw -0.2, Marseille -0.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 4 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,937 → 20,026), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 31 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Marseille. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 19.4%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.638, Brier 1.050 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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