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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 7

Fajr Sepasi v Aluminium Arak

Fajr SepasiF. Arab 47′, 77′
2–1FT · HT 0–0
Aluminium ArakR. Zolfipour 90′
Where to watch

· Hafezieh Stadium, Shiraz

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Hafezieh Stadium, Shiraz
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Fajr Sepasi⁩ win. The model gave it 32.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.275 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.02 – 0.99⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 16.0%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 15.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.2%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 10.8%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.0%

⁦2–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 12 Oct, 07:02 UK time, 31 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 684 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 14:30Kick-off
  2. 47′Goal · Fajr SepasiF. Arab · (assist S. Fadakar)
  3. 76′Yellow card · Aluminium ArakM. Mahdavi
  4. 77′Goal · Fajr SepasiF. Arab · (assist A. Moredi)
  5. 78′Yellow card · Fajr SepasiF. Arab
  6. 90′Goal · Aluminium ArakR. Zolfipour · (assist M. Mahdavi)
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Substitution · Fajr SepasiF. Arab on · M. Rigi off
  2. 46′Substitution · Aluminium ArakR. Jabireh on · A. Vatandoust off
  3. 46′Substitution · Aluminium ArakA. Sadeghi on · B. Goudarzi off
  4. 46′Substitution · Aluminium ArakA. Amanipour on · M. Motlaghzadeh off
  5. 59′Substitution · Fajr SepasiA. Moredi on · M. Sharifi off
  6. 61′Substitution · Aluminium ArakA. Latifi on · S. Sadeghi off
  7. 70′Substitution · Aluminium ArakR. Zolfipour on · A. Ghanbari off
  8. 75′Substitution · Fajr SepasiM. Faramarzi on · S. Tavakoli off
  9. 90′Substitution · Fajr SepasiM. Bahraminejad on · Y. Rostami off
  10. 90′Substitution · Fajr SepasiE. Falamarzi on · S. Fadakar off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-upsdata delayed

Fajr Sepasi

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Aluminium Arak

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Fajr Sepasi · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Aluminium Arak · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Fajr Sepasinot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Aluminium Araknot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: a draw is ahead by 2.9 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Fajr Sepasi · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Aluminium Arak · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Aluminium Arak · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Fajr Sepasi +15.6, draw -9.1, Aluminium Arak -6.5 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (5 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (221 → 679), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (31 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Fajr Sepasi -0.4, draw +0.4, Aluminium Arak 0.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (679 → 678), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (678 → 684), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: Fajr Sepasi. Version 4 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 32.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.113, Brier 0.677 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Fajr Sepasi38.7
Aluminium Arak61.8
Fajr Sepasi — 38.775% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Aluminium Arak — 61.875% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 59% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 07:02 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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