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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 7

Eyüpspor v Göztepe

Eyüpspor
0–4FT · HT 0–1
GöztepeJ. Santos da Silva 11′ · A. Henrique 54′, 59′, 75′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: A. Karaoglan
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: A. Karaoglan
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Göztepe⁩ win. The model gave it 41.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.217 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.20 – 1.44⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.33 – 3.15⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 4⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.2%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.7%

⁦0–4⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v5 computed 12 Oct, 17:31 UK time, 28 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 11 Oct on 1,007 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 18:00Kick-off
  2. 8′VAR · Göztepe · Penalty confirmedN. Miroshi
  3. 9′Red card · EyüpsporA. Abdullahi
  4. 11′Penalty · GöztepeJ. Santos da Silva
  5. 41′Yellow card · EyüpsporA. Yaşar
  6. 41′Yellow card · GöztepeJ. Santos da Silva
  7. 45+2′Yellow card · EyüpsporK. Michalak
  8. 46′Substitution · GöztepeA. Henrique on · Janderson off
  9. 47′Yellow card · GöztepeA. Antunes
  10. 54′Goal · GöztepeA. Henrique
  11. 59′Goal · GöztepeA. Henrique
  12. 60′Substitution · EyüpsporT. Ülvan on · K. Michalak off
  13. 60′Substitution · EyüpsporC. Raux Yao on · M. Demir off
  14. 60′Substitution · EyüpsporL. Pintor on · Y. Barası off
  15. 69′Substitution · GöztepeS. Armstrong on · J. Santos da Silva off
  16. 75′Penalty · GöztepeA. Henrique
  17. 76′Substitution · EyüpsporH. Akman on · D. Costa off
  18. 76′Substitution · EyüpsporB. Boutobba on · C. Massanga off
  19. 77′Substitution · GöztepeE. Bekiroğlu on · A. Antunes off
  20. 77′Substitution · GöztepeA. Matos on · N. Miroshi off
  21. 81′Substitution · GöztepeF. Anjorin on · Rhaldney off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 1Blocked shots7
  • 3Corners7
  • 1.33Expected goals (xG)3.15
  • 8Fouls17
  • 1Offsides3
  • 79%Pass accuracy82%
  • 418Passes360
  • 330Accurate passes296
  • 53%Possession47%
  • 1Red cards0
  • 3Saves4
  • 7Shots19
  • 2Shots off target5
  • 4Shots on target7
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Eyüpspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Yaşar906.900––3
H. Moldovan905.900–10
S. Giordano905.900113
T. Ilter906.900–11
Z. Jules906.9002–3
C. Massanga766.500–12
D. Costa765.900––0
K. Michalak605.3001–1
M. Demir606.200––0
Y. Barası606.900––1
C. Raux Yao306.900–11
L. Pintor306.3002–0
T. Ülvan305.600––0
B. Boutobba146.300–10
H. Akman146.500––0
A. Abdullahi93.000––0
Göztepe
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Kurtulan907.300–24
A. Özçimen908.000––0
M. Bokele907.300–10
N. Sonko-Sundberg907.2001–0
R. Akonnor908.200213
T. Altıkardeş907.0001–1
Rhaldney817.3001–2
A. Antunes776.600–11
N. Miroshi777.000––0
J. Santos da Silva696.910111
A. Henrique459.0305–0
Janderson456.300120
S. Armstrong216.300––0
A. Matos136.900––1
E. Bekiroğlu137.000–31
F. Anjorin96.900–10

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Göztepe3-4-1-2

  1. 1A. Özçimen8.0
  1. 4T. Altıkardeş7.0
  2. 19N. Sonko-Sundberg7.2
  3. 26M. Bokele (c)7.3
  1. 2A. Kurtulan7.3
  2. 5Rhaldney7.3
  3. 20N. Miroshi7.0
  4. 12R. Akonnor8.2
  1. 8A. Antunes6.6
  1. 39Janderson6.3
  2. 9J. Santos da Silva6.9
  1. 9Y. Barası6.9
  2. 29A. Abdullahi3.0
  1. 70M. Demir6.2
  2. 28T. Ilter (c)6.9
  3. 8D. Costa5.9
  1. 21S. Giordano5.9
  2. 33Z. Jules6.9
  3. 4A. Yaşar6.9
  4. 88C. Massanga6.5
  5. 77K. Michalak5.3
  1. 31H. Moldovan5.9

Eyüpspor5-3-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Eyüpspor · Bench

Coach: Mustafa Dalci

Göztepe · Bench

Coach: Stanimir Stoilov

Key players

Eyüpsporavailable

  1. Z. Jules · Defender540 min in 6 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. C. Massanga · Midfielder540 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. T. Ülvan · Defender527 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 6 matches played.

Göztepeavailable

  1. T. Altıkardeş · Defender540 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Kurtulan · Midfielder539 min in 6 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. E. Yildirim · Defender451 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 6 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Göztepe the most probability, 11.1 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Göztepe · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Göztepe · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Eyüpspor · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Eyüpspor -0.2, draw +2.5, Göztepe -2.3 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (4 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (334 → 1,013), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (30 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,013 → 1,011), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,011 → 1,007), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    Nothing the model reads changed between these two versions. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–4: Göztepe. Version 5 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 41.7%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.874, Brier 0.510 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Eyüpspor22.1
Göztepe47.3
Eyüpspor — 22.195% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 25% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 22 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 81% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Göztepe — 47.395% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 64% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 22 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 17:31 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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