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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor

Alanyaspor
0–2FT · HT 0–2
TrabzonsporW. Pina 17′ · M. Salah 34′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: O. Cakir
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: O. Cakir
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Trabzonspor⁩ win. The model gave it 54.6%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.123 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.98 – 1.75⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.13 – 2.84⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.0%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 10.7%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 10.0%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 7.4%

⁦0–2⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 08 Nov, 15:05 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 7 Nov on 1,018 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:30Kick-off
  2. 17′Goal · TrabzonsporW. Pina · (assist C. Nwaiwu)
  3. 34′Goal · TrabzonsporM. Salah · (assist P. Onuachu)
  4. 62′Substitution · AlanyasporO. Ben Ali on · A. Usluoğlu off
  5. 69′Substitution · TrabzonsporM. Kabasakal on · O. Tufan off
  6. 76′Substitution · AlanyasporE. Keskin on · B. Ali Gezek off
  7. 76′Substitution · AlanyasporI. Kaya on · H. Ui-Jo off
  8. 80′Substitution · TrabzonsporM. Eskihellaç on · E. Muçi off
  9. 82′Yellow card · AlanyasporF. Aliti
  10. 89′Substitution · TrabzonsporM. Mimaroğlu on · M. Salah off
  11. 89′Substitution · TrabzonsporA. Habeşoğlu on · P. Onuachu off
  12. 90+4′Yellow card · TrabzonsporC. Nwaiwu

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 4Blocked shots4
  • 5Corners4
  • 2.13Expected goals (xG)2.84
  • 14Fouls11
  • 0Offsides4
  • 81%Pass accuracy89%
  • 364Passes608
  • 296Accurate passes544
  • 38%Possession62%
  • 2Saves2
  • 14Shots21
  • 8Shots off target12
  • 2Shots on target5
  • 1Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Alanyaspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Özyurt906.200––0
F. Aliti905.9002–0
F. Hadergjonaj908.000–72
Maestro907.200––2
N. Lima906.600––1
P. Victor906.000––0
R. Pereira Duarte907.000–11
Y. Özdemir907.200–22
B. Ali Gezek767.700–11
H. Ui-Jo766.300211
A. Usluoğlu626.3002–1
O. Ben Ali286.3004–0
E. Keskin146.900––0
I. Kaya146.500––0
Trabzonspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Onana907.900––0
C. Nwaiwu907.601212
Fabinho906.900–13
N. Saviolo907.200121
S. Lopes Cabral907.200321
S. Savić907.3001–1
W. Pina908.5101–1
M. Salah898.310430
P. Onuachu896.601410
E. Muçi807.700151
O. Tufan696.900112
M. Kabasakal216.700––0
M. Eskihellaç106.600––0
A. Habeşoğlu1–00––0
M. Mimaroğlu1–00––0

xG (Highlightly)limited

Alanyaspor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
O. Ben Ali0.860.000.62
H. Ui-Jo0.740.19–
A. Usluoğlu0.260.00–
F. Aliti0.130.00–
Maestro0.060.03–
B. Ali Gezek–0.01–
B. Özyurt–0.00–
E. Keskin–0.00–
F. Hadergjonaj–1.10–
N. Lima–0.01–
P. Victor–0.00–
Y. Özdemir–0.12–
Trabzonspor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Salah0.860.540.69
P. Onuachu0.660.01–
S. Savić0.490.01–
O. Tufan0.170.03–
E. Muçi0.150.35–
W. Pina0.080.030.21
C. Nwaiwu0.070.16–
N. Saviolo0.070.150.08
S. Lopes Cabral0.070.11–
A. Habeşoğlu–0.01–
A. Onana–0.00–
Fabinho–0.03–
M. Kabasakal–0.00–
M. Mimaroğlu–0.02–
M. Eskihellaç–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 2 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Trabzonspor4-3-3

  1. 24A. Onana7.9
  1. 20W. Pina8.5
  2. 27C. Nwaiwu7.6
  3. 15S. Savić (c)7.3
  4. 55S. Lopes Cabral7.2
  1. 11O. Tufan6.9
  2. 6Fabinho6.9
  3. 7E. Muçi7.7
  1. 10M. Salah8.3
  2. 30P. Onuachu6.6
  3. 70N. Saviolo7.2
  1. 16H. Ui-Jo6.3
  2. 17A. Usluoğlu6.3
  3. 11R. Pereira Duarte7.0
  1. 88Y. Özdemir7.2
  2. 55B. Ali Gezek7.7
  3. 58Maestro7.2
  4. 94F. Hadergjonaj8.0
  1. 5F. Aliti (c)5.9
  2. 4B. Özyurt6.2
  3. 3N. Lima6.6
  1. 48P. Victor6.0

Alanyaspor3-4-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Alanyaspor · Bench

Coach: Joao Pereira

Trabzonspor · Bench

Coach: T. Reis

Key players

Alanyasporavailable

  1. F. Hadergjonaj · Midfielder900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. F. Aliti · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. P. Victor · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Trabzonsporavailable

  1. A. Onana · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. S. Savić · Defender899 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. C. Nwaiwu · Defender893 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Trabzonspor the most probability, 29.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Trabzonspor · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Trabzonspor · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Alanyaspor · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Alanyaspor 0.0, draw -2.0, Trabzonspor +2.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,009 → 1,015), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Alanyaspor -0.1, draw 0.0, Trabzonspor +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 2 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,015 → 1,011), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 29 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Alanyaspor -4.5, draw -1.5, Trabzonspor +6.0 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (2 Nov 2026 → 7 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,011 → 1,018), history from (29 Oct 2023 → 3 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–2: Trabzonspor. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 54.7%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.604, Brier 0.310 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Alanyaspor39.1
Trabzonspor83.0
Alanyaspor — 39.195% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 31% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 36% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 66% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Trabzonspor — 83.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 08 Nov, 15:05 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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