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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 15

Birmingham v Swansea

Birmingham
2–1FT · HT 1–0
Swansea
Where to watch

· St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Anthony Backhouse
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
  • Referee: Anthony Backhouse
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Birmingham⁩ win. The model gave it 53.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.133 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.58 – 0.91⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.99 – 1.11⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.9%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.1%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.6%

⁦2–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 07 Nov, 14:35 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 6 Nov on 1,657 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 12′Penalty missed · SwanseaR. Stewart
  3. 26′Red card · SwanseaM. Stamenić
  4. 29′Goal · BirminghamJ. Stansfield · (assist M. Bird)
  5. 42′Yellow card · SwanseaR. Stewart
  6. 49′Yellow card · SwanseaJ. Fulton
  7. 54′Yellow card · BirminghamJ. Stansfield
  8. 55′Yellow card · BirminghamE. Laird
  9. 65′Own goal · SwanseaC. Klarer
  10. 87′Goal · BirminghamJ. Stansfield
  11. 87′Yellow card · SwanseaJ. Tymon
Substitutions (10)
  1. 45′Substitution · SwanseaJ. Key on · J. Eom off
  2. 58′Substitution · BirminghamD. Gray on · L. Millar off
  3. 58′Substitution · BirminghamC. Vicente on · P. Roberts off
  4. 59′Substitution · SwanseaE. Just on · M. Kounfolo Yeo off
  5. 59′Substitution · SwanseaŽ. Vipotnik on · R. Stewart off
  6. 70′Substitution · BirminghamM. Ducksch on · M. Bird off
  7. 70′Substitution · BirminghamS. Ho Paik on · J. Solís off
  8. 80′Substitution · BirminghamL. Vázquez on · E. Laird off
  9. 81′Substitution · SwanseaM. Widell on · J. Fulton off
  10. 86′Substitution · SwanseaJ. Opoku on · G. Franco off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 59%Possession41%
  • 2.99Expected goals (xG)1.11

Attack

  • 21Shots8
  • 8Shots on target3
  • 9Shots off target3
  • 4Blocked shots2
  • 8Corners5
  • 1Offsides3
  • 3Saves6

Passing

  • 475Passes338
  • 376Accurate passes226

Discipline

  • 8Fouls9
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Birmingham
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Cochrane906.800132
C. Klarer906.100000
J. Stansfield908.820720
P. Neumann906.600202
R. Allsop906.300000
T. Iwata906.700011
E. Laird806.100210
J. Solís706.500101
M. Bird706.901210
L. Millar587.200413
P. Roberts586.300012
C. Vicente326.700110
D. Gray326.800021
M. Ducksch206.500100
S. Ho Paik206.200000
L. Vázquez106.400000
Swansea
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Cabango906.500000
F. Lissah905.600103
J. Seelt906.500204
J. Tymon905.100011
L. Vigouroux906.800000
G. Franco866.300104
J. Fulton815.800000
M. Kounfolo Yeo596.700102
R. Stewart595.700100
J. Eom456.600112
J. Key456.100000
E. Just316.400011
Ž. Vipotnik316.300000
M. Stamenić265.100000
M. Widell95.900000
J. Opoku46.900100

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Birmingham
PlayerxGxAxGOT
P. Neumann0.740.01–
J. Stansfield0.730.201.07
L. Millar0.700.290.30
M. Bird0.440.131.32
J. Solís0.420.020.79
E. Laird0.160.08–
A. Cochrane0.060.19–
M. Ducksch0.050.00–
C. Vicente0.030.05–
C. Klarer–0.02–
D. Gray–0.22–
L. Vázquez–0.00–
P. Roberts–0.03–
R. Allsop–0.01–
S. Ho Paik–0.00–
T. Iwata–0.11–
Swansea
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Stewart0.790.010.84
J. Seelt0.080.00–
G. Franco0.060.01–
F. Lissah0.020.000.01
J. Eom0.020.07–
M. Kounfolo Yeo0.010.04–
B. Cabango–0.00–
E. Just–0.01–
J. Fulton–0.01–
J. Opoku–0.00–
J. Key–0.00–
J. Tymon–0.05–
L. Vigouroux–0.00–
M. Stamenić–0.00–
M. Widell–0.00–
Ž. Vipotnik–0.01–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

Swansea4-3-3

  1. 22Vigouroux6.8
  1. 26Lissah5.6
  2. 5Cabango6.5
  3. 3Seelt6.5
  4. 14TymonBooked 87′5.1
  1. 17FrancoOff 86′6.3
  2. 4FultonBooked 49′ · Off 81′5.8
  3. 6StamenićSent off 26′5.1
  1. 49Kounfolo YeoOff 59′6.7
  2. 31StewartBooked 42′ · Off 59′5.7
  3. 10EomOff 45′6.6
  1. 28StansfieldGoal 29′ · Booked 54′ · Goal 87′8.8
  1. 17MillarOff 58′7.2
  2. 18BirdOff 70′6.9
  3. 16RobertsOff 58′6.3
  1. 14SolísOff 70′6.5
  2. 24Iwata6.7
  1. 20Cochrane6.8
  2. 4KlarerOwn goal 65′6.1
  3. 5Neumann6.6
  4. 2LairdBooked 55′ · Off 80′6.1
  1. 21Allsop6.3

Birmingham4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Birmingham · Bench

Coach: Chris Davies

Swansea · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Birminghamavailable

  1. P. Neumann · Defender1,260 min in 14 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. C. Klarer · Defender1,260 min in 14 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. T. Iwata · Midfielder1,237 min in 14 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 14 matches played.

Swanseaavailable

  1. L. Vigouroux · Goalkeeper1,260 min in 14 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Tymon · Defender1,242 min in 14 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Welsh · Defender1,054 min in 14 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 14 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Birmingham the most probability, 27.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Birmingham · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Birmingham · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Birmingham · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Birmingham +6.8, draw -1.2, Swansea -5.6 points (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 3 Nov 2026), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 30 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Birmingham +5.2, draw -2.8, Swansea -2.4 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (3 Nov 2026 → 6 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,633 → 1,657), history from (30 Oct 2023 → 2 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: Birmingham. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 53.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.635, Brier 0.332 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Birmingham71.5
Swansea61.5
Birmingham — 71.595% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 72% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Swansea — 61.595% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 07 Nov, 14:35 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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