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Picked from 21 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan

Red Bull Salzburg
0–4FT · HT 0–2
AC MilanA. Cissè 15′, 32′, 49′ · G. Ramos 72′
Where to watch

· Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim
  • Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨AC Milan⁩ win. The model gave it 58.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.107 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.07 – 1.98⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.89 – 3.45⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 4⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 6.5%

⁦0–4⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 12 Oct, 07:03 UK time, 3 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 15,579 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:45Kick-off
  2. 15′Goal · AC MilanA. Cissè · (assist O. Hutchinson)
  3. 21′Yellow card · AC MilanO. Hutchinson
  4. 32′Goal · AC MilanA. Cissè · (assist D. Bartesaghi)
  5. 40′Yellow card · Red Bull SalzburgV. Zabransky
  6. 49′Goal · AC MilanA. Cissè · (assist A. Rabiot)
  7. 72′Goal · AC MilanG. Ramos
  8. 83′Red card · AC MilanF. Terracciano
Substitutions (10)
  1. 60′Substitution · Red Bull SalzburgY. Vertessen on · E. Baidoo off
  2. 60′Substitution · Red Bull SalzburgG. Diakité on · S. Kitano off
  3. 60′Substitution · AC MilanC. Pulišić on · A. Cissè off
  4. 60′Substitution · AC MilanG. Ramos on · F. Camarda off
  5. 61′Substitution · AC MilanL. Modrić on · A. Rabiot off
  6. 67′Substitution · AC MilanF. Terracciano on · F. Tomori off
  7. 73′Substitution · Red Bull SalzburgA. Camara on · H. Tabaković off
  8. 73′Substitution · Red Bull SalzburgD. Redzic on · J. Lindstrøm off
  9. 81′Substitution · Red Bull SalzburgT. Drexler on · L. Morgalla off
  10. 81′Substitution · AC MilanS. Diawara on · S. Pavlović off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticslimited

Match

  • 52%Possession48%
  • 0.89Expected goals (xG)3.45

Attack

  • 14Shots15
  • 2Shots on target10
  • 8Shots off target4
  • 4Blocked shots1
  • 3Corners2
  • 1Offsides2
  • 5Saves2

Passing

  • 525Passes478
  • 462Accurate passes429

Discipline

  • 13Fouls12
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards1

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Red Bull Salzburg
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Barry906.900122
B. Mazurek906.200214
C. Zawieschitzky906.900000
D. Schmid906.100110
K. Boma906.500001
V. Zabransky905.800000
L. Morgalla815.900003
H. Tabaković736.400010
J. Lindstrøm736.100314
E. Baidoo606.000120
S. Kitano606.400011
G. Diakité306.500301
Y. Vertessen306.500301
A. Camara175.800000
D. Redzic176.600020
T. Drexler95.700000
AC Milan
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Jashari907.200121
D. Bartesaghi907.301134
K. De Winter906.900002
M. Maignan907.000001
O. Hutchinson907.701320
R. Loftus-Cheek906.400107
S. Pavlović817.200003
F. Tomori676.900002
A. Rabiot617.701231
A. Cissè609.730401
F. Camarda606.400000
C. Pulišić306.800111
G. Ramos307.410200
L. Modrić296.700011
F. Terracciano165.500001
S. Diawara96.500000

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

AC Milan3-4-2-1

  1. 16Maignan7.0
  1. 23TomoriOff 67′6.9
  2. 5De Winter6.9
  3. 31PavlovićOff 81′7.2
  1. 20HutchinsonBooked 21′7.7
  2. 30Jashari7.2
  3. 12RabiotOff 61′7.7
  4. 33Bartesaghi7.3
  1. 8Loftus-Cheek6.4
  2. 70CissèGoal 15′ · Goal 32′ · Goal 49′ · Off 60′9.7
  1. 73CamardaOff 60′6.4
  1. 9TabakovićOff 73′6.4
  1. 20BaidooOff 60′6.0
  2. 8KitanoOff 60′6.4
  3. 35LindstrømOff 73′6.1
  1. 15Mazurek6.2
  2. 32Barry6.9
  1. 31Schmid6.1
  2. 47ZabranskyBooked 40′5.8
  3. 44Boma6.5
  4. 39MorgallaOff 81′5.9
  1. 52Zawieschitzky6.9

Red Bull Salzburg4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Red Bull Salzburg · Bench

Coach: D. Röhl

AC Milan · Bench

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Key players

Red Bull Salzburglimited

  1. H. Tabaković · Forward90 min in 1 match · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Barry · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. B. Mazurek · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 1 of 5 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

AC Milanavailable

  1. G. Ramos · Forward90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. K. De Winter · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. M. Maignan · Goalkeeper90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives AC Milan the most probability, 35.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours AC Milan · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours AC Milan · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Red Bull Salzburg · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2 · Early pre-match: first available version.
    The early pre-match version reported no inputs, so nothing can be attributed.
  3. v3 · Red Bull Salzburg +0.2, draw +0.1, AC Milan -0.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,135 → 15,091), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Red Bull Salzburg 0.0, draw -0.1, AC Milan +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,091 → 15,579), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–4: AC Milan. Version 4 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 58.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.543, Brier 0.264 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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