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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Lommel v Gent

LommelJ. Talvitie 82′ · D. Gordic 87′
2–0FT · HT 0–0
Gent
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: K. van Damme
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: K. van Damme
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Lommel⁩ win. The model gave it 36.8%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.249 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.06 – 0.96⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.34 – 1.34⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 14.1%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 13.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 13.5%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 12.2%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.5%

⁦2–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 26 Oct, 17:33 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 25 Oct on 923 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:30Kick-off
  2. 37′VAR · Gent · Card cancelledM. Delorge-Knieper
  3. 38′Yellow card · GentM. Delorge-Knieper
  4. 82′Goal · LommelJ. Talvitie · (assist D. Gordic)
  5. 84′Yellow card · GentT. De Vlieger
  6. 87′Goal · LommelD. Gordic · (assist L. Schoofs)
  7. 90′Yellow card · GentT. Araújo
Substitutions (9)
  1. 57′Substitution · GentL. Bénes on · M. Delorge-Knieper off
  2. 57′Substitution · GentT. De Vlieger on · A. Kadri off
  3. 62′Substitution · LommelN. Rommens on · T. Gooijer off
  4. 67′Substitution · LommelJ. Talvitie on · S. Appuah off
  5. 71′Substitution · GentJ. Vergara on · M. Dean off
  6. 76′Substitution · LommelD. Gordic on · T. Reyners off
  7. 76′Substitution · LommelI. Dada-Mascoll on · S. Nypan off
  8. 85′Substitution · GentA. Omgba on · S. Van der Heyden off
  9. 85′Substitution · GentE. Hadji Seck on · L. Lopes off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 59%Possession41%
  • 1.34Expected goals (xG)1.34

Attack

  • 16Shots15
  • 7Shots on target4
  • 5Shots off target8
  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 3Corners5
  • 0Offsides3
  • 4Saves4

Passing

  • 601Passes418
  • 527Accurate passes348
  • 88%Pass accuracy83%

Discipline

  • 10Fouls10
  • 0Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Lommel
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Konadu906.300110
J. van Duiven907.300–22
J. Pelupessy906.900–12
L. Schoofs906.901124
M. Pieklak908.200––0
S. Adewoye907.9001–1
T. Eyoma906.900––1
S. Nypan766.700130
T. Reyners767.300312
S. Appuah676.900–11
T. Gooijer627.200––1
N. Rommens287.000––0
J. Talvitie237.7102–0
D. Gordic147.611310
I. Dada-Mascoll146.700––0
Gent
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Roef906.700––0
H. Goore906.300214
M. Paskotši907.200–12
M. Volckaert907.500–11
M. Sonko907.900171
T. Araújo906.900122
L. Lopes857.000–12
S. Van der Heyden857.500––2
M. Dean716.2005–0
A. Kadri576.6001–1
M. Delorge-Knieper577.3001–3
L. Bénes336.5001–0
T. De Vlieger336.300–13
J. Vergara196.6001–0
A. Omgba96.500––0
E. Hadji Seck96.200––0

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Lommel
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Pieklak–––
Gent
PlayerxGxAxGOT
D. Roef–––

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

Gent3-4-2-1

  1. 33Roef (c)6.7
  1. 57Volckaert7.5
  2. 3Paskotši7.2
  3. 44Van der HeydenOff 85′7.5
  1. 45Goore6.3
  2. 22LopesOff 85′7.0
  3. 17Delorge-KnieperBooked 38′ · Off 57′7.3
  4. 20AraújoBooked 90′6.9
  1. 37KadriOff 57′6.6
  2. 11Sonko7.9
  1. 21DeanOff 71′6.2
  1. 9Konadu6.3
  1. 11AppuahOff 67′6.9
  2. 15Schoofs (c)6.9
  3. 10ReynersOff 76′7.3
  1. 41NypanOff 76′6.7
  2. 6Pelupessy6.9
  1. 47GooijerOff 62′7.2
  2. 4Adewoye7.9
  3. 3Eyoma6.9
  4. 2van Duiven7.3
  1. 23Pieklak8.2

Lommel4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Lommel · Bench

Coach: Lee Johnson

Gent · Bench

Coach: Rik De Mil

Key players

Lommelavailable

  1. J. van Duiven · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 3 assists
  2. L. Schoofs · Midfielder810 min in 9 matches · 2 goals · 0 assists
  3. M. Pieklak · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Gentavailable

  1. S. Van der Heyden · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. D. Roef · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. T. Araújo · Midfielder809 min in 9 matches · 2 goals · 5 assists

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Lommel the most probability, 5.0 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Lommel · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Gent · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Gent · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (24 Oct 2026 → 25 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (926 → 923), history from (20 Oct 2023 → 21 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Lommel. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 36.8%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.000, Brier 0.599 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Lommel59.8
Gent74.9
Lommel — 59.895% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 66% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 24% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 8 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Gent — 74.995% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and underlying team strength.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 66% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 26 Oct, 17:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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