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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 12

Blackburn v Wrexham

BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen 44′, 79′
2–0FT · HT 1–0
Wrexham
Where to watch

· Ewood Park, Blackburn

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Matthew Corlett
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Ewood Park, Blackburn
  • Referee: Matthew Corlett
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Blackburn⁩ win. The model gave it 41.2%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.219 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.33 – 1.11⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.37 – 1.60⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.2%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.6%

⁦2–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 24 Oct, 14:33 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 23 Oct on 1,643 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 16′Yellow card · BlackburnH. Pickering
  3. 27′Yellow card · WrexhamD. Hyam
  4. 44′Goal · BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen
  5. 45′Yellow card · WrexhamM. James
  6. 64′Substitution · WrexhamG. Dobson on · M. James off
  7. 64′Substitution · WrexhamB. Sheaf on · B. Whiteman off
  8. 65′Yellow card · BlackburnS. Morsy
  9. 72′Substitution · BlackburnA. Kargbo on · J. Fevrier off
  10. 78′Substitution · WrexhamD. Imray on · I. Kaboré off
  11. 78′Substitution · WrexhamR. Longman on · J. Ekomié off
  12. 78′Substitution · WrexhamO. Rathbone on · D. Hyam off
  13. 79′Goal · BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen · (assist T. Cantwell)
  14. 80′Yellow card · BlackburnT. Cantwell
  15. 89′Substitution · BlackburnJ. Garrett on · M. Baradji off
  16. 89′Substitution · BlackburnD. De Neve on · A. Guðjohnsen off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 4Blocked shots10
  • 7Corners9
  • 1.37Expected goals (xG)1.60
  • 11Fouls11
  • 1Offsides3
  • 81%Pass accuracy79%
  • 394Passes380
  • 319Accurate passes300
  • 50%Possession50%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 0Saves3
  • 16Shots24
  • 7Shots off target13
  • 5Shots on target1
  • 3Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Blackburn
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Tóth906.600000
H. Pickering907.300021
H. Carter906.700301
O. Afolayan906.900311
R. Alebiosu907.600103
S. Morsy907.300121
S. McLoughlin908.700000
T. Cantwell907.701070
A. Guðjohnsen898.320200
M. Baradji898.000014
J. Fevrier726.900203
A. Kargbo186.200000
D. De Neve16.500000
J. Garrett16.500000
Wrexham
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Patterson907.000000
C. Doyle907.300102
C. O'Hare906.900221
J. Worrall906.600111
K. Moore907.200332
S. Smith907.000220
D. Hyam786.700001
I. Kaboré786.900112
J. Ekomié787.200124
B. Whiteman647.700122
M. James646.300210
B. Sheaf266.900001
G. Dobson266.300000
D. Imray126.300100
O. Rathbone126.500001
R. Longman126.300010

xG (Highlightly) available

Blackburn
PlayerxGxAxGOT
H. Carter0.610.01–
O. Afolayan0.450.030.60
A. Guðjohnsen0.260.051.29
J. Fevrier0.120.20–
R. Alebiosu0.070.000.29
S. Morsy0.030.090.02
A. Kargbo–0.00–
B. Tóth–0.01–
H. Pickering–0.13–
J. Garrett–0.00–
M. Baradji–0.04–
S. McLoughlin–0.00–
T. Cantwell–0.42–
Wrexham
PlayerxGxAxGOT
K. Moore0.550.09–
C. Doyle0.330.02–
C. O'Hare0.310.38–
S. Smith0.210.36–
J. Worrall0.100.00–
B. Whiteman0.080.45–
M. James0.060.03–
G. Dobson0.030.03–
J. Ekomié0.030.09–
I. Kaboré0.020.04–
R. Longman0.020.03–
D. Imray0.010.01–
A. Patterson–0.00–
B. Sheaf–0.02–
D. Hyam–0.00–
O. Rathbone–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Wrexham3-4-2-1

  1. 22A. Patterson7.0
  1. 5D. Hyam (c)6.7
  2. 6J. Worrall6.6
  3. 2C. Doyle7.3
  1. 12I. Kaboré6.9
  2. 37M. James6.3
  3. 8B. Whiteman7.7
  4. 3J. Ekomié7.2
  1. 28S. Smith7.0
  2. 17C. O'Hare6.9
  1. 19K. Moore7.2
  1. 9A. Guðjohnsen8.3
  1. 21O. Afolayan6.9
  2. 10T. Cantwell (c)7.7
  3. 11J. Fevrier6.9
  1. 24M. Baradji8.0
  2. 8S. Morsy7.3
  1. 3H. Pickering7.3
  2. 15S. McLoughlin8.7
  3. 17H. Carter6.7
  4. 2R. Alebiosu7.6
  1. 22B. Tóth6.6

Blackburn4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Blackburn · Bench

Coach: Tony Mowbray

Wrexham · Bench

Coach: P. Parkinson

Key players

Blackburnavailable

  1. S. McLoughlin · Defender990 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. R. Alebiosu · Defender944 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. K. Montgomery · Midfielder934 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Wrexhamavailable

  1. A. Patterson · Goalkeeper990 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. B. Whiteman · Midfielder923 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. D. Hyam · Defender923 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Blackburn the most probability, 10.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Blackburn · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours neither side · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours neither side · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Blackburn +0.1, draw -0.1, Wrexham 0.0 points (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 17 Oct 2026), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 13 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Blackburn +2.4, draw -1.7, Wrexham -0.7 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 23 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,619 → 1,643), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 19 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Blackburn. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 41.2%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.886, Brier 0.518 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Blackburn50.5
Wrexham53.7
Blackburn — 50.595% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 37% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 85% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 30% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Wrexham — 53.795% measured

Driven mostly by venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 24 Oct, 14:33 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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